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Why JY Grandmark Holdings' (HKG:2231) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems

Why JY Grandmark Holdings' (HKG:2231) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems

為什麼JY Grandmark Holdings(HKG:2231)不穩定的收益只是其問題的開始
Simply Wall St ·  2022/05/19 19:21

The subdued market reaction suggests that JY Grandmark Holdings Limited's (HKG:2231) recent earnings didn't contain any surprises. Our analysis suggests that along with soft profit numbers, investors should be aware of some other underlying weaknesses in the numbers.

低迷的市場反應表明JY Grandmark Holdings Limited的(HKG:2231)最近的收益不包含任何意外。我們的分析表明,除了疲軟的利潤數據外,投資者還應該意識到數字中的其他一些潛在弱點。

View our latest analysis for JY Grandmark Holdings

查看我們對JY Grandmark Holdings的最新分析

SEHK:2231 Earnings and Revenue History May 19th 2022
聯交所:2231盈利及收入歷史2022年5月19日

Zooming In On JY Grandmark Holdings' Earnings

放大JY Grandmark Holdings的收益

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

許多投資者都沒有聽説過現金流應計比率但它實際上是衡量一家公司在給定時期內自由現金流(FCF)支持公司利潤的程度的有用指標。應計制比率從給定期間的利潤中減去FCF,然後將結果除以該時間段內公司的平均運營資產。這個比率告訴我們,一家公司的利潤中有多少不是由自由現金流支持的。

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

因此,負的應計比率對公司是積極的,而正的應計比率是負的。雖然應計比率為正並不是問題,這表明非現金利潤達到了一定的水平,但高的應計比率可以説是一件壞事,因為它表明賬面利潤與現金流不匹配。這是因為一些學術研究表明,高應計制比率往往會導致較低的利潤或較低的利潤增長。

Over the twelve months to December 2021, JY Grandmark Holdings recorded an accrual ratio of 0.28. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow was a lot less than its statutory profit, which makes us doubt the utility of profit as a guide. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥216.4m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥1.7b in the last year. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥1.7b, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.

在截至2021年12月的12個月內,JY Grandmark Holdings的應計比率為0.28。不幸的是,這意味着其自由現金流遠遠低於其法定利潤,這讓我們懷疑利潤作為指導的效用。儘管它報告了2.164億加元的利潤,但看看自由現金流就會發現,它在去年實際上燒掉了17億加元。在去年自由現金流為負的情況下,我們可以想象,一些股東可能會懷疑,該公司今年17億元的現金消耗是否意味着高風險。然而,這並不是需要考慮的全部問題。我們可以看到,不尋常的項目影響了其法定利潤,從而影響了應計比率。

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of JY Grandmark Holdings.

注:我們總是建議投資者檢查資產負債表的實力。點擊此處查看我們對JY Grandmark Holdings的資產負債表分析。

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

不尋常的項目如何影響利潤?

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥25m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. If JY Grandmark Holdings doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.

該公司去年有一些不尋常的項目使利潤增加了2500萬加元,這一事實可能在某種程度上解釋了為什麼它的應計比率如此之低。雖然有更高的利潤總是好事,但不尋常的東西帶來的巨大貢獻有時會挫傷我們的熱情。當我們分析全球絕大多數上市公司時,我們發現重大的不尋常項目往往不會重複。畢竟,這正是會計術語所暗示的。如果JY Grandmark Holdings沒有看到這種貢獻再次出現,那麼在其他條件相同的情況下,我們預計該公司今年的利潤將會下降。

Our Take On JY Grandmark Holdings' Profit Performance

我們對JY Grandmark Holdings的利潤表現的看法

Summing up, JY Grandmark Holdings received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at JY Grandmark Holdings' statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. If you'd like to know more about JY Grandmark Holdings as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for JY Grandmark Holdings you should be mindful of and 2 of these bad boys don't sit too well with us.

綜上所述,JY Grandmark Holdings從不尋常的項目中獲利獲得了不錯的提振,但無法將賬面利潤與自由現金流相匹配。基於上述原因,我們認為,敷衍地看一眼JY Grandmark Holdings的法定利潤,可能會讓它看起來比潛在層面上的實際情況更好。如果你想更多地瞭解JY Grandmark Holdings作為一家企業,意識到它面臨的任何風險是很重要的。一個恰當的例子:我們發現了JY Grandmark Holdings的4個警告標誌你應該注意,這些壞男孩中有兩個和我們坐在一起不太好。

Our examination of JY Grandmark Holdings has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

我們對JY Grandmark Holdings的調查集中在某些因素上,這些因素可能會讓其收益看起來比實際情況更好。在此基礎上,我們對此持懷疑態度。但如果你有能力將注意力集中在細枝末節上,總會有更多的東西需要發現。一些人認為,高股本回報率是高質量企業的良好標誌。雖然這可能需要為您做一些研究,但您可能會發現免費擁有高股本回報率的公司的集合,或者是內部人士購買的有用的股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。

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