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Is Wangfujing Group (SHSE:600859) A Risky Investment?

Is Wangfujing Group (SHSE:600859) A Risky Investment?

王府井集團(上海證券交易所代碼:600859)是一項高風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  2022/05/14 21:03

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Wangfujing Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600859) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

由伯克希爾哈撒韋公司的芒格支持的外部基金經理李路直言不諱地説,最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。因此,當你考慮到任何一隻股票的風險有多大時,你需要考慮債務可能是顯而易見的,因為太多的債務可能會讓一家公司倒閉。我們可以看到王府井集團有限公司。(上海證券交易所:600859)確實在其業務中使用債務。但真正的問題是,這筆債務是否讓該公司面臨風險。

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

為什麼債務會帶來風險?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

一般來説,只有當一家公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成為一個真正的問題,無論是通過籌集資金還是用自己的現金流。資本主義的一部分是“創造性破壞”的過程,破產的企業被銀行家無情地清算。儘管這並不常見,但我們確實經常看到負債累累的公司永久性地稀釋股東的權益,因為貸款人迫使他們以令人沮喪的價格籌集資金。當然,債務的好處是,它往往代表着廉價資本,特別是當它用能夠以高回報率進行再投資的能力取代公司的稀釋時。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先同時考慮現金和債務水平。

Check out our latest analysis for Wangfujing Group

查看我們對王府井集團的最新分析

What Is Wangfujing Group's Net Debt?

王府井集團的淨負債是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2022 Wangfujing Group had debt of CN¥3.98b, up from CN¥3.37b in one year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥13.6b in cash, so it actually has CN¥9.61b net cash.

下圖顯示,截至2022年3月,王府井集團的債務為39.8億加元,高於一年內的33.7億加元。你可以點擊查看更多細節。然而,其資產負債表顯示,它持有人民幣136億元的現金,因此它實際上擁有人民幣96.1億元的淨現金。

SHSE:600859 Debt to Equity History May 15th 2022
上證綜指:600859債轉股歷史2022年5月15日

How Healthy Is Wangfujing Group's Balance Sheet?

王府井集團的資產負債表有多健康?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Wangfujing Group had liabilities of CN¥10.0b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥8.20b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥13.6b and CN¥602.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥4.01b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

根據最近一次上報的資產負債表,王府井集團有10.0億加元的負債在12個月內到期,82億加元的負債在12個月後到期。另一方面,它有136億加元的現金和6.02億加元的應收賬款在一年內到期。因此,它的負債總額為人民幣40.1億元,比現金和近期應收賬款加起來還要多。

Of course, Wangfujing Group has a market capitalization of CN¥24.6b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Wangfujing Group also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.

當然,王府井集團的市值為246億元人民幣,因此這些負債大概是可控的。但有足夠的負債,我們肯定會建議股東繼續監控未來的資產負債表。雖然王府井集團確實有值得注意的負債,但它的現金也多於債務,所以我們非常有信心它能夠安全地管理債務。

In addition to that, we're happy to report that Wangfujing Group has boosted its EBIT by 49%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Wangfujing Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

除此之外,我們很高興地報告,王府井集團將息税前利潤提高了49%,從而降低了未來償還債務的幽靈。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中瞭解到的債務最多。但決定王府井集團未來能否保持健康資產負債表的,最重要的是未來的收益。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. While Wangfujing Group has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Looking at the most recent three years, Wangfujing Group recorded free cash flow of 45% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤只是不能削減這一點。雖然王府井集團的資產負債表上有淨現金,但它將息税前利潤(EBIT)轉換為自由現金流的能力仍然值得一看,以幫助我們瞭解它正在以多快的速度建立(或侵蝕)現金餘額。從最近三年來看,王府井集團的自由現金流佔其息税前利潤的45%,這一數字低於我們的預期。這種疲軟的現金轉換增加了處理債務的難度。

Summing up

總結

Although Wangfujing Group's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of CN¥9.61b. And it impressed us with its EBIT growth of 49% over the last year. So is Wangfujing Group's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Wangfujing Group has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

雖然王府井集團的資產負債表不是特別強勁,但由於總負債,它的淨現金為96.1億元人民幣,這顯然是積極的。去年息税前利潤49%的增長給我們留下了深刻的印象。那麼,王府井集團的債務是一種風險嗎?但在我們看來並非如此。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。但歸根結底,每家公司都可能包含存在於資產負債表之外的風險。例如-王府井集團有3個警示標誌我們認為你應該意識到。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有興趣投資於可以在沒有債務負擔的情況下增長利潤的企業,那麼看看這個免費資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業名單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。

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