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Exclusive: Arbitrage Expert Julian Klymochko Breaks Down Twitter Acquisition And Elon Musk's Options

Exclusive: Arbitrage Expert Julian Klymochko Breaks Down Twitter Acquisition And Elon Musk's Options

獨家報道:套利專家Julian Klymochko分析了Twitter收購和Elon Musk的選擇
Benzinga Real-time News ·  2022/05/07 18:42

News of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk acquiring social media platform Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) has been one of the biggest topics of the investing world in 2022.

新聞報道:特斯拉公司(納斯達克代碼:TSLA)首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克收購社交媒體平臺Twitter Inc.(紐約證券交易所代碼:TWTR)一直是2022年投資界最大的話題之一。

Musk offered to buy Twitter shares for $54.20 each, yet shares have been trading around the $49 level. Benzinga spoke recently with Julian Klymochko, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Accelerate, a company offering ETFs and alternative investments.

馬斯克提出以每股54.20美元的價格收購Twitter股票,但股價一直在49美元左右。Benzinga最近與Accelerate首席執行官兼首席投資官朱利安·克萊莫奇科進行了交談,Accelerate是一家提供ETF和另類投資的公司。

Klymochko has a history of analyzing mergers and often invests in the arbitrage opportunity of deals, or the amount that can be made if the deal closes. Klymochko recently estimated that he has invested in/analyzed over 2,500 mergers over the last 15 years.

Klymochko有分析合併的歷史,經常投資於交易的套利機會,即交易完成後可以獲得的金額。Klymochko最近估計,在過去的15年裏,他已經投資/分析了2500多筆合併。

Twitter Premium: Musk offered to buy Twitter shares for $54.20 and shares are trading below the price. Here's what Klymochko had to say of the difference.

推特高級版:馬斯克提出以54.20美元的價格收購Twitter股票,目前股價低於該價格。以下是Klymochko對這一區別的看法。

"Musk's $44 billion leveraged buyout of Twitter is the largest LBO of all time (by a longshot). The financing package includes an exceptional amount of leverage, including $25.5 billion debt and margin loan commitments," Klymochko told Benzinga.

Klymochko告訴Benzinga:“馬斯克以440億美元的槓桿收購Twitter是有史以來規模最大的槓桿收購(遙遙領先)。這一融資方案包括大量槓桿,包括255億美元的債務和保證金貸款承諾。”

Klymochko said the market is pricing in around 70% odds of success of the deal closing. Klymochko points to the risks of the deal being credit markets falling or the price of Tesla shares dropping, with the margin loan reliant on the share value of Tesla.

Klymochko説,市場預期這筆交易成功完成的可能性約為70%。Klymochko指出,這筆交易的風險是信貸市場下跌或特斯拉股價下跌,保證金貸款取決於特斯拉的股價。

"Musk agreed to put up a $21 billion equity check. This is an astronomical amount of cash, even for the world's wealthiest person. He has been divesting TSLA stock in addition to seeking partners to help fund this commitment."

馬斯克同意提供210億美元的股權支票。這是一個天文數字的現金,即使對於世界上最富有的人來説也是如此。除了尋找合作伙伴來幫助為這一承諾提供資金外,他還一直在出售特斯拉的股票。

Musk recently announced a filing with new investors in the buyout that included Larry Ellison, Binance, a16z and others.

馬斯克最近宣佈向收購中的新投資者提交申請,其中包括拉里·埃裏森、Binance、a16z等。

Related Link: Why Is Twitter's Share Price So Far From Musk's Takeover Price 

相關鏈接:為什麼推特的股價離馬斯克的收購價這麼遠

Can Elon Musk Walk From Deal?: One popular topic put forth on social media is if Musk can decide to walk away from the planned acquisition.

埃隆·馬斯克能離開Deal嗎?:社交媒體上提出的一個熱門話題是,馬斯克是否能決定放棄計劃中的收購。

"Musk signed a definitive agreement, which is a legally binding agreement, to acquire Twitter for $54.20 per share. He cannot walk away from the deal," Klymochko said.

“馬斯克簽署了一項最終協議,這是一項具有法律約束力的協議,以每股54.20美元的價格收購Twitter。他不能放棄這筆交易,”Klymochko説。

If Musk backs out from the deal, Klymochko said Twitter could sue and push for a court decision to force him to close the deal. If Musk is unable to obtain the proper financing, he would have to pay a $1 billion reverse break fee. A judge could award monetary damages in excess of the $1 billion break fee, depending on several scenarios, Klymochko added.

Klymochko表示,如果馬斯克退出交易,Twitter可能會提起訴訟,並推動法院做出決定,迫使他完成交易。如果馬斯克無法獲得適當的融資,他將不得不支付10億美元的反向分手費。Klymochko補充説,法官可能會判給超過10億美元分手費的金錢損害賠償,具體取決於幾種情況。

"Other things that could cause the merger agreement to terminate include shareholders voting against it (unlikely) and regulators blocking it (also unlikely)."

“其他可能導致合併協議終止的因素包括股東投票反對(不太可能)和監管機構阻撓(也不太可能)。”

Twitter Deal Summary: The previous record for a leveraged buyout was KKR & Co (NYSE:KKR) and TPG Inc (NASDAQ:TPG) acquiring energy company TXU for $12 billion. TXU went bankrupt after the leveraged buyout.

Twitter交易摘要:之前的槓桿收購記錄是KKR&Co(紐約證券交易所代碼:KKR)和TPG Inc.納斯達克(TPG:TPG)以120億美元收購能源公司TXU。TXU在槓桿收購後破產。

The deal terms of the Twitter acquisition provide some risk with the financing methods and tie-in of Tesla shares.

收購Twitter的交易條款為特斯拉股票的融資方式和搭售提供了一些風險。

Klymochko estimated that if the deal to acquire Twitter falls through, shares of the social media platform could fall to the mid-$30s.

Klymochko估計,如果收購Twitter的交易失敗,這家社交媒體平臺的股價可能會跌至35美元左右。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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