share_log

The three-year underlying earnings growth at Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank (SZSE:002958) is promising, but the shareholders are still in the red over that time

The three-year underlying earnings growth at Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank (SZSE:002958) is promising, but the shareholders are still in the red over that time

青島農村商業銀行(深圳證券交易所股票代碼:002958)三年基本收益增長前景看好,但這段時間股東仍處於虧損狀態
Simply Wall St ·  2022/05/06 20:06

If you are building a properly diversified stock portfolio, the chances are some of your picks will perform badly. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002958) shareholders. Unfortunately, they have held through a 63% decline in the share price in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 25%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. Even worse, it's down 14% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. But this could be related to poor market conditions -- stocks are down 9.6% in the same time.

如果你正在建立一個適當多元化的股票投資組合,你挑選的一些股票可能會表現不佳。但過去三年對長期而言尤其艱難。青島農村商業銀行股份有限公司。(SZSE:002958)股東。不幸的是,在那段時間裏,他們挺過了股價下跌63%的局面。去年,該公司股價下跌了25%,因此我們懷疑有多少股東對此感到高興。更糟糕的是,它在大約一個月內下跌了14%,這一點都不好玩。但這可能與糟糕的市場狀況有關--股市同期下跌了9.6%。

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

鑑於過去一週對股東的態度一直很嚴峻,讓我們調查一下基本面,看看我們能學到什麼。

Check out our latest analysis for Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank

查看我們對青島農村商業銀行的最新分析

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

用巴菲特的話説,“船隻將在世界各地航行,但平坦的地球協會將蓬勃發展。市場上的價格和價值之間將繼續存在巨大的差異……”通過比較每股收益(EPS)和股價隨時間的變化,我們可以感受到投資者對一家公司的態度隨着時間的推移發生了怎樣的變化。

Although the share price is down over three years, Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank actually managed to grow EPS by 6.2% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

儘管股價在三年多的時間裏下跌,但青島農村商業銀行在這段時間裏實際上實現了每股收益6.2%的增長。這是一個相當令人費解的問題,表明可能有什麼因素暫時提振了股價。或者,該公司過去被過度炒作,因此其增長令人失望。

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

由於每股收益的變化似乎與股價的變化沒有相關性,因此值得看看其他指標。

We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. On the other hand, the uninspired reduction in revenue, at 9.9% each year, may have shareholders ditching the stock. In that case, the current EPS might be viewed by some as difficult to sustain.

我們注意到,股息似乎足夠健康,所以這可能無法解釋股價下跌的原因。另一方面,收入以每年9.9%的速度毫無創意地下降,可能會讓股東拋棄該公司的股票。在這種情況下,當前的每股收益可能會被一些人視為難以維持。

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

該公司的收入和收益(隨着時間的推移)如下圖所示(點擊查看具體數字)。

SZSE:002958 Earnings and Revenue Growth May 6th 2022
深交所:2022年5月6日收益和收入增長002958

Take a more thorough look at Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

以此更透徹地審視青島農村商業銀行的財務健康狀況免費報告其資產負債表。

What About Dividends?

那股息呢?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank's TSR for the last 3 years was -59%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

除了衡量股價回報外,投資者還應考慮總股東回報(TSR)。雖然股價回報只反映股價的變動,但TSR包括股息的價值(假設股息再投資),以及任何折價集資或分拆所帶來的利益。可以説,TSR更全面地描繪了一隻股票產生的回報。碰巧的是,青島農村商業銀行最近三年的TSR為-59%,超過了前面提到的股價回報。而且,猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種差異是沒有好處的!

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

The last twelve months weren't great for Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank shares, which performed worse than the market, costing holders 23%, including dividends. Meanwhile, the broader market slid about 14%, likely weighing on the stock. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 17% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last three years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

過去12個月,青島農村商業銀行的股價表現不佳,表現遜於大盤,持股者損失了23%,其中包括股息。與此同時,大盤下跌約14%,可能令該股承壓。然而,過去一年的虧損沒有過去三年投資者遭受的17%的年虧損那麼嚴重。在認為股價將企穩之前,我們希望有明確的信息表明該公司將會增長。雖然值得考慮市場狀況對股價可能產生的不同影響,但還有其他更重要的因素。比如風險。每家公司都有,我們發現了青島農村商業銀行的3個警示標誌(其中1個是關乎的!)你應該知道。

We will like Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

如果我們看到一些大的內部收購,我們會更喜歡青島農村商業銀行。在我們等待的時候,看看這個免費最近有大量內幕收購的成長型公司名單。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在CN交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎?保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
    搶先評論