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We Think Liaoning Port (HKG:2880) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease

We Think Liaoning Port (HKG:2880) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease

我們認為遼寧港(HKG:2880)可以輕鬆管理其債務
Simply Wall St ·  2022/05/02 02:30

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Liaoning Port Co., Ltd. (HKG:2880) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

由伯克希爾哈撒韋公司的芒格支持的外部基金經理李路直言不諱地説,最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。因此,當你評估一家公司的風險有多大時,聰明的投資者似乎知道債務--通常涉及破產--是一個非常重要的因素。重要的是遼寧港務股份有限公司(HKG:2880)確實有債務。但真正的問題是,這筆債務是否讓該公司面臨風險。

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務在什麼時候是危險的?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

債務幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是用新資本還是用自由現金流。如果情況真的變得很糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。然而,一種更常見(但仍令人痛苦)的情景是,它不得不以低價籌集新的股本,從而永久性地稀釋股東。然而,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資本投資於高回報率增長的企業來説,債務可以成為一個非常好的工具。當我們考慮一家公司的債務用途時,我們首先會把現金和債務放在一起看。

Check out our latest analysis for Liaoning Port

查看我們對遼寧港的最新分析

How Much Debt Does Liaoning Port Carry?

遼寧港揹負着多少債務?

As you can see below, Liaoning Port had CN¥4.91b of debt at March 2022, down from CN¥7.51b a year prior. On the flip side, it has CN¥4.75b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥164.6m.

如下所示,截至2022年3月,遼寧港的債務為人民幣49.1億元,低於一年前的人民幣75.1億元。另一方面,它擁有47.5億加元的現金,導致淨債務約為1.646億加元。

SEHK:2880 Debt to Equity History May 2nd 2022
聯交所:2880債轉股歷史2022年5月2日

A Look At Liaoning Port's Liabilities

看遼寧港口的負債狀況

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Liaoning Port had liabilities of CN¥7.54b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥10.00b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥4.75b in cash and CN¥4.01b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥8.78b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

從最近的資產負債表可以看出,遼寧港有75.4億元的負債在一年內到期,還有10億元的負債在一年內到期。作為抵消,它有47.5億加元的現金和40.1億加元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總額為人民幣87.8億元,超過了現金和短期應收賬款的總和。

This deficit isn't so bad because Liaoning Port is worth CN¥34.4b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution. But either way, Liaoning Port has virtually no net debt, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

這一赤字並不是那麼糟糕,因為遼寧港價值人民幣344億元,因此如果需要的話,可能會籌集到足夠的資本來支撐其資產負債表。但很明顯,我們絕對應該仔細檢查它是否能夠在不稀釋的情況下管理債務。但無論如何,遼寧港幾乎沒有淨債務,所以公平地説,它沒有沉重的債務負擔!

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

為了評估一家公司的債務相對於它的收益,我們計算它的淨債務除以它的利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)和它的利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以它的利息支出(它的利息覆蓋)。因此,我們考慮債務相對於收益,包括折舊和攤銷費用。

With debt at a measly 0.035 times EBITDA and EBIT covering interest a whopping 16.4 times, it's clear that Liaoning Port is not a desperate borrower. So relative to past earnings, the debt load seems trivial. In addition to that, we're happy to report that Liaoning Port has boosted its EBIT by 81%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Liaoning Port's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

遼寧港的債務僅為息税前利潤的0.035倍,息税前利潤高達16.4倍,很明顯,遼寧港並不是一個絕望的借款人。因此,相對於過去的收益,債務負擔似乎微不足道。除此之外,我們很高興地報告,遼寧港的息税前利潤增長了81%,從而降低了未來償還債務的幽靈。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。但遼寧港的盈利將影響未來資產負債表的表現。因此,當考慮債務時,絕對值得關注收益趨勢。點擊此處查看互動快照。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Liaoning Port produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 54% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

最後,儘管税務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。因此,有必要檢查這筆息税前利潤中有多少是由自由現金流支持的。在過去三年中,遼寧港產生了強勁的自由現金流,相當於息税前利潤的54%,這與我們預期的差不多。這種冷酷的現金意味着,它可以在想要的時候減少債務。

Our View

我們的觀點

Liaoning Port's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its EBIT growth rate is also very heartening. It's also worth noting that Liaoning Port is in the Infrastructure industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Looking at the bigger picture, we think Liaoning Port's use of debt seems quite reasonable and we're not concerned about it. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with Liaoning Port , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

遼寧港的利息擔保表明,它可以輕鬆處理債務,就像克里斯蒂亞諾·羅納爾多在對陣14歲以下門將的比賽中進球一樣。這只是好消息的開始,因為它的息税前利潤增長率也非常令人鼓舞。同樣值得注意的是,遼寧港屬於基礎設施行業,這一行業通常被認為是相當防禦性的。從大局來看,我們認為遼寧港的舉債似乎相當合理,我們並不擔心。儘管債務確實會帶來風險,但如果使用得當,它也可以帶來更高的股本回報率。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中--遠非如此。我們已經確定了遼寧港的兩個警告信號,瞭解它們應該是您投資過程的一部分。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

歸根結底,關注那些沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。你可以訪問我們的這類公司的特別名單(都有利潤增長的記錄)。這是免費的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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這篇由《華爾街日報》撰寫的文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。簡單地説,華爾街在提到的任何股票中都沒有頭寸。

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