個人中心
登出
中文繁體
返回
登入後諮詢在線客服
回到頂部

avatar
victories 女 ID: 71264419
US stock researcher
關注
    $富途控股(FUTU.US)$ 叶子哥 is always on futu hk. Is he also active here on moomoo?
    @moomoo Singapore @Team moomoo @
    4
    $富途控股(FUTU.US)$ 無聊的週末...
    已翻譯
    $富途控股(FUTU.US)$
    a post from FUTU HK
    STRONG HOLD 🚀
    一、“政策沒落地”論我昨天發帖也說了,沒有看到任何新增政策風險。《個人信息保護法》已然落地,類似歐洲的GDPR和美國加州的CCPA:對電商、社交等依賴廣告收入的平台影響大,對券商金融行業沒有什麼直接影響。況且富途的活躍用戶和新增用戶大部分都在HK,SG,包括一部分US,據說最近CA也要開始發力了。空頭一般會拿教培和滴滴來說事。教培被搞,完全是因爲教育是國家根基,涉及到國家生育政策和教育政策。民間苦教育久矣,沒有討論餘地;滴滴被搞,陰謀論我是不信的,我覺得就是跟地圖數據直接相關。要減少絕對壟斷地位的App掌握完整道路數據,儘量讓數據分散開。滴滴旗下的花小豬一直在Travel榜Top10,不見任何問題。至於說“換匯”問題,也是銀行該擔心的,輪不到富途。就算按$200時的富途來看,體量也小到不會有人惦記。監管會喜歡空頭的這種行爲嗎?我認爲回顧中華民族幾千年的歷史可以看出,監管最討厭的就是挑撥對立情緒的那一小撮人。咱泱泱大國,富途又一直在唱好中國,心懷中概,咱有點基本的判斷,好吧?二、炫耀侮辱論這個是比較噁心。因爲多頭從$200以來回撤很多利潤,虧損慘重。大部分人是從$100+開始買入的,所以空頭就會各種炫耀“我賺了你的錢”“你虧的好難受”“你再相信富途就是**”之類話騙你放棄堅持到現在的籌碼,壓低股價好buy to cover。前兩天,某人用同樣的方法也來噁心我,可惜我的成本空頭估計得借5倍volume才能砸到。發現忽悠不了我減倉,就各種“秀肌肉”“吹牛逼”,如跳樑小醜一般。我承認,一隻股票我從200拿到60,比專業trader肯定不如,但你空個200股也在那吹牛逼真是讓我哭笑不得。曬出你好幾個券商的持倉再來脫褲子吧:)三、基本面受損論無非是,最近會有很多人離開股市或者投奔友商。這個也很簡單,你看看周圍牛牛圈的好友走了沒;你自己開個友商賬戶體驗一下反人類的UI設計就知道答案了。反正我身邊離場走人的很少。倒是有幾個嘗試註冊了其他友商結果發現那體驗真的是噁心的要吐,客服也聯繫不上。
    以上就是空頭的三種伎倆和我的解讀。
    最後說一下富途可以開始看空的幾個因素:1、葉子哥完全不再活躍在牛牛圈,使得富途喪失Founder-lead的標籤;2、HK的地位徹底喪失,使得富途的主要市場衰落;3、出現一家特別牛逼的友商在產品研發運營等各方面碾壓富途。4、整個市場崩盤,就像COVID-19剛爆發的那幾個禮拜。1、我覺得不太可能,葉子哥的熱情在這裏,一個人的性格很難改變。我認爲葉子哥是可以媲美Elon Musk的。2、我覺得這更不可能。大家可以去多聽一下大領導的講話是怎麼評價HK地位的。3、這個發生的概率我認爲等同於阿里出一款社交App打敗微信或者Facebook不再到處山寨。4、這個看最近會不會有什麼大事情發生了。我覺得不會有。哈哈。當然,我說的也是我自己的判斷。歡迎點贊轉發。English version:
    The shorts are under the pressure of interest cost and squeeze risk, so they will overwhelmingly spread negative news and comments. I want to make some comments on three major points from them.
    1, Regulation RiskAs I made a post yesterday, the PIPL(Personal Information Protection Law) won't affect much on FUTU. It's similar to GDPR, CCPA and a bit similar to Apple's action on Facebook. Only companies that hold a massive number of users (>100M) would need to be concerned about the impact on their stock price.The shorts would somehow compare FUTU with TAL/EDU and DIDI. However, they are different.* TAL/EDU are companies that would affect the fundamental national education policy. So the govt would not let them be too big to regulate.* DIDI is too dominant in this market, and the govt would like to split its data into different small apps to lower the risk of leaking data that affects national security. Huaxiaozhu, a subsidiary fork app of Didi, is still online and ranked Top 10 of Travel category on App Store.2, Bully on LongsThis is sick since most of the longs had a cost above $100 this year. Shorts would show off their profits compared to longs' loss.On the community of FUTU HK, someone commented on one of my threads, laughing at my loss and showing off his profits by shorting the stock. I didn't get any emotional because my cost was too low for me to worry about. And he kept mocking other users and me hysterically like a clown in my feeds afterward, trying to "warn" us that the stock would go lower and he'll take our profits if we don't sell now.If you are longs, make sure you don't have too much margin because I can't promise the stock will rise (though I don't think it can go any lower)3, Impact on FundamentalsShorts would exaggerate the negative impact on FUTU's business as the price drop would let people cash out or switch to other competitors.Well, IMO, this situation could happen only if one of the competitors would create a robust compelling app. I don't find out any of my friends switch to other brokers on FUTU/Moomoo. However, some did try and got back immediately as they realized how poor the other apps were.---Finally, let me share some of my views that the stock would drop:1, We don't see any activity of CEO Leaf in the FUTU community. It would make FUTU a non-Founder-led company. I don't think this is likely to happen because Leaf ran his company like this for years.2, Hong Kong lost its strategy status, which I don't think it's going to happen because many leaders had made it clear.3, A competitor launches an app that is way much better than FUTU/Moomoo. Well, I think it's as hard as Alibaba creating an app to take over WeChat in China.4, The economy is in free fall - well, I don't think it's going to happen unless .... (you know^_^ )
    已翻譯
    6
    $富途控股(FUTU.US)$ 有人說中文為我翻譯這個嗎?
    已翻譯
    圖片長圖
    14