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Stocks made big gains this year. What investors will be thankful for in 2022

Stocks made big gains this year. What investors will be thankful for in 2022

今年股市大漲。2022年投資者會感激的是什麼
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2021/11/28 19:33  · 解讀

Thanksgiving may be over, but there is much to be thankful for about the stock market over the past year. Big gains, for one: The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite Index added 26%, 17%, and 27%, respectively, from Thanksgiving 2020 through Friday.

感恩節可能已經結束,但過去一年的股市有很多值得慶幸的地方。比如,股市大漲:從2020年感恩節到上週五,標準普爾500指數、道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數和納斯達克綜合指數分別上漲了26%、17%和27%。

While reflection is great, the market, as ever, is forward-looking. What will we be thankful for when Thanksgiving 2022 rolls around? There is a lot that could vex investors this coming year. Covid is posing new threats, and inflation is making people nervous, The Federal Reserve is -- slowly -- withdrawing monetary stimulus.

雖然反思是偉大的,但市場一如既往地具有前瞻性。當2022年感恩節即將來臨時,我們會對什麼心存感激呢?在未來的一年裏,有很多事情可能會讓投資者感到惱火。Covid帶來了新的威脅,通貨膨脹讓人們感到緊張,美聯儲(Federal Reserve)正在--緩慢地--撤回貨幣刺激措施。

"What I think we will be thankful for in 2022 is the resiliency of Corporate America," says Liz Young, head of the investment strategy at SoFi. She believes that corporations can manage in this environment, helped by the strength of the U.S. consumer.

SoFi投資策略主管利茲·楊(Liz Young)表示:“我認為,2022年我們將慶幸的是美國企業界的彈性。”她認為,得益於美國消費者的力量,企業可以在這種環境下管理。

Young suggests that investors consider a higher allocation to small-capitalization stocks, those with a market cap around $20 billion or less -- as represented by the Russell 2000 index. Such stocks are more leveraged by the U.S. consumer. Megacorporations generate about 60% of their sales from the U.S., while small-caps get about 80% of their sales here.

楊建議投資者考慮增加對小市值股票的配置,即那些市值在200億美元左右或更少的股票,羅素2000指數(Russell 2000 Index)就是其中的代表。這類股票更多地受到美國消費者的槓桿化。大型企業約60%的銷售額來自美國,而小盤股約80%的銷售額來自美國。

Navellier & Associates founder Louis Navellier says he will be thankful in 2022 for profit margin expansion. Stocks that can grow profits faster than they grow sales will be the big winners. "High margin, monopoly-type stocks like $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ will fare the best," he says.

Navellier&Associates創始人路易斯·Navellier表示,他將在2022年感謝利潤率的擴大。利潤增長速度快於銷售額增長速度的股票將是大贏家。“高利潤率、壟斷型股票,如$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$將會是最好的。“他説。

Other companies with high-profit margins and high market share include $Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US)$, Facebook parent $Meta Platforms(FB.US)$, and $Apple(AAPL.US)$.

其他高利潤率和高市場份額的公司包括$Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US)$,Facebook Parent$Meta Platforms(FB.US)$,及$蘋果(AAPL.US)$.

Barry Bannister, the market strategist at Stiefel, takes a grimmer view. He's waiting for a bubble to pop.

Stiefel的市場策略師巴里·班尼斯特(Barry Bannister)則持更為悲觀的看法。他在等待泡沫破裂。

This year, Bannister says, he's "grateful for inflation because it shows [modern monetary theory] doesn't work." Modern monetary theory is complicated, but it essentially holds that government deficits don't matter and won't cause inflation. "In 2022, I'll be grateful for higher real Treasury yields, because it shows that [valuation] bubbles are something to be prevented," he says.

班尼斯特説,今年他“對通貨膨脹心存感激,因為它表明[現代貨幣理論]不管用。“現代貨幣理論很複雜,但它本質上認為政府赤字無關緊要,不會導致通脹。”2022年,我將感謝更高的實際國債收益率,因為它表明[估值]泡沫是需要防止的,“他説。

Low-interest rates do lead to inflated valuations -- and to things like shiba inu cryptocurrencies. Bannister recommends that investors stay cautious in fourth-quarter 2021 and first-quarter 2022. That means more portfolio allocation to things such as utilities, staples, and healthcare.

低利率確實會導致估值過高--也會導致像Shiba Inu加密貨幣這樣的東西。班尼斯特建議投資者在2021年第四季度和2022年第一季度保持謹慎。這意味着更多的投資組合配置到公用事業、主要產品和醫療保健等領域。

"My team and I are thankful for the creativity, agility, and determination of Corporate America to manage through supply-chain and inflation pressures," says Lori Calvasina, RBC's head of U.S. equity strategy. Like Young, she appreciates the support the government has provided to the U.S. economy during the pandemic.

加拿大皇家銀行(RBC)美國股票策略主管洛裏·卡爾瓦斯蒂娜(Lori Calvasina)表示:“我和我的團隊感謝美國公司在應對供應鏈和通脹壓力方面的創造力、敏捷性和決心。”和楊一樣,她也感謝政府在疫情期間為美國經濟提供的支持。

"Next year, we think we will be thankful for all of these things again, and also hope to be thankful for being able to pull all of the Covid charts out of our marketing deck."

明年,我們認為我們將再次感謝所有這些事情,並希望能夠將Covid的所有排行榜從我們的營銷平臺上撤下。“

Most investors would agree with that.

大多數投資者都會同意這一點。

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

寫信給Al Root,地址是allen.root@dowjones.com

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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