The first wave of pre-sale of "double 11" in 2021 has come to an end, and the performance of each brand will be significantly reflected in the revenue side of the fourth quarter. During this period, we tracked the whole pre-sale process, and compared the rule changes and the performance of various brands this year, in order to try to summarize the overall trend of household appliance consumption in the fourth quarter.
The overall changes in the rules of the Singles' Day platform this year show four major characteristics: first, the overall pre-sale time of the major platforms is ahead of schedule, and the overall activity time has been lengthened; second, the discount threshold is lower, and the discount intensity is greater. Third, the way of promotion is transferred to content marketing; fourth, JD.com is online and offline to create a popular popularity. JD.com Electric Appliance Super experience Store has achieved good growth compared with the same period last year.
Q4 home appliances segment double 11 pre-sales have a good performance, is expected to drive domestic sales in the fourth quarter of restorative growth. Small household appliances plate: judging from the first wave of pre-sale data, small household appliance companies that benefited from innovation in 2021 benefited greatly, and most small household appliance brands, such as Supor, Xinbao, Xiaoxiong, Jiuyang, and so on, achieved better growth, and increased efforts to promote innovation accelerated the bottoming rebound of the plate, and it is expected that the revenue end of the small household appliance plate will still achieve good growth in the fourth quarter compared with the same period last year. Baidian plate: from the first wave of pre-sale data, Baidian leading company Taobian platform performance has increased significantly compared with the same period last year, driving Q4 domestic sales to continue to improve. In the case of a substantial increase in the price of raw materials, the average pre-sale price of air conditioners is the same as that of 20 years, and the actual discount for consumers is greater than in previous years, thus leading to a better growth in the category. Display plate: smart micro-investment products perform well, take the lead in extreme rice nuts, and have a high degree of attention in the peak rice market. The price competition of color TV is fierce, and the price of some products is reduced greatly.
The price of small household appliances is relatively low and the consumption attribute is stronger, and the benefit range is greater. As the small household appliance enterprises enter a new intensive period, driven by more innovative products, the demand side is expected to gradually recover and continue to be optimistic. At the same time, the current valuation level is still low, with a certain cost-effective advantage.
Investment advice: it is recommended to pay attention to Supor (19.8x), which is in the stage of rapid upgrading in scale, expanding products and expanding channels; Xinbao shares (21.1x) whose domestic sales performance is good, overseas orders are stable, and profit margins are expected to recover further; speed up the construction of new channels to seek new traffic growth points, Xiao Xiong Electric Appliances (23.4x), which has a faster year-on-year growth rate on Singles' Day. Clean electrical appliances enterprises Kovos (39.2x), Stone Technology (30.8x); Beiding shares, a model of DTC in the industry (31.6x); domestic cooking utensils growing fast and stable for export; Jiuyang shares (16.6x); Feike Electric Appliances (22.6x) with gradual improvement in product structure and steady increase in gross profit margin With good management quality and continuous improvement in domestic sales, White Power leaders Haier Smart Home (16.34x), Midea (15.3x), Kitchen Electric Boss Electrical Appliances (12.5x), and Hisense Video gradually restored profitability (11.0x). Note: the stock price on November 5 corresponds to the 22-year valuation in parentheses.