share_log

Opinion: As insiders bail on Palantir Technologies stock, don’t get caught holding the bag

Opinion: As insiders bail on Palantir Technologies stock, don’t get caught holding the bag

觀點:當內部人士押注Palantir Technologies股票時,不要被抓到拿着袋子
InvestorPlace ·  2021/08/13 09:15

Seemingly out of nowhere, presidential and mayoral candidate Andrew Yang brought to the mainstream several ideas that absolutely needed to be talked about, one of them being data as the current century’s gold or oil. Since data is so valuable, it can theoretically fund multiple initiatives. For $Palantir Technologies Inc(PLTR.US)$, that sounds just about right. PLTR stock could be on the cusp of unprecedented greatness.

總統和市長候選人楊致遠似乎無緣無故地將幾個絕對需要談論的想法帶到了主流,其中之一是將數據作為本世紀的黃金或石油。由於數據如此寶貴,從理論上講,它可以為多項倡議提供資金。為$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR.US)$,這聽起來恰到好處。PLTR股票可能正處於史無前例的偉大邊緣。

As a big data analytics specialist, Palantir navigates the digital landscape to deliver to its clients actionable and potentially profitable decision-making guidance.

作為一名大數據分析專家,Palantir在數字環境中導航,為客户提供可操作的、可能有利可圖的決策指導。

Some of its services lend themselves to admirable endeavors, such as helping companies deliver useful products and services to customers at just the right time. Others, such as using data analytics to track undocumented immigrants, are awfully controversial.

它的一些服務讓自己做出了令人欽佩的努力,比如幫助公司在正確的時間向客户提供有用的產品和服務。其他的,比如使用數據分析來追蹤非法移民,是非常有爭議的。

But the main catalyst for PLTR stock is not necessarily what the underlying company does with its data-as-power business model; rather, it’s that Palantir can find relevance in almost everything.

但PLTR股票的主要催化劑並不一定是基礎公司對其數據即電力(Data-as-Power)業務模式的做法;相反,Palantir幾乎可以在所有事情上找到相關性。

For instance, Palantir partnered with the $FERRARI N.V.(RACE.US)$ Formula 1 racing team, which might not seem like an intuitive relationship. However, modern F1 racing is a combination of speed and positioning.

例如,Palantir與$Ferrari N.V.(RACE.US)$一級方程式賽車隊,這可能看起來不像是一種直觀的關係。然而,現代F1賽車是速度和定位的結合。

Since passing is generally very difficult, teams nowadays can win or lose races in the pits. Knowing when to come in and when to stay out can not only be the difference between first and second, it could be the difference between first and tenth.

由於傳球通常非常困難,現在的球隊在維修站的比賽中可能會贏也可能會輸。知道什麼時候進來,什麼時候不進來,不僅是第一名和第二名的區別,也可能是第一名和第十名的區別。

That Palantir is spread across disparate industries might discourage some. For me, though, it’s one of the strong points of PLTR stock.

Palantir分佈在不同的行業,這可能會讓一些人望而卻步。不過,對我來説,這是PLTR股票的優勢之一。

Whether you need to know when to best plant your flowers or find useful intel to bust a human trafficking case, Palantir has something for you.

無論你是需要知道什麼時候最適合種花,還是需要找到有用的情報來破獲一起人口販運案件,Palantir都為你提供了一些東西。

Fundamentally, then, PLTR stock should consistently jump higher, but investors should conduct a more thorough due diligence.

那麼,從根本上説,PLTR的股票應該會持續走高,但投資者應該進行更徹底的盡職調查。

The Obvious Angle for PLTR Stock Is Flashing Brightly

PLTR股票的明顯角度閃耀着耀眼的光芒

As someone who’s involved in the business media and investment sector, I receive plenty of marketing pitches. One of them came from a competitor site advertising daily guidance 5X a week.

作為一個涉足商業、媒體和投資領域的人,我收到了大量的營銷推介。其中一封來自一家競爭對手的網站,每週廣告每日指導5X次。

At first, I thought it meant 5X returns, which was not the case. Still, it got me thinking about PLTR stock.

起初,我以為這意味着5倍的回報,但事實並非如此。儘管如此,這還是讓我想起了PLTR的股票。

I’m a big believer in the rationalism of capitalism. Akin to the “greed is good” advice from fictional character Gordon Gekko, under a capitalist system, people act according to what they perceive as being in their best interest. Therefore, if someone were pitching me a system that promised any magnitude of profit per 24-hour cycle, I wouldn’t believe it.

我是資本主義理性主義的堅定信仰者。類似於虛構人物戈登·蓋科(Gordon Gekko)的“貪婪是好事”的建議,在資本主義制度下,人們按照他們認為最符合自己利益的東西行事。因此,如果有人向我推銷一個承諾每24小時週期都能帶來鉅額利潤的系統,我是不會相信的。

You see, if I had a system that guaranteed me even 1.005X daily returns — whatever it is, stocks, bonds, retail arbitrage — I wouldn’t tell anyone about it. Why would I? With just a little patience and the magic of compounding numbers, I would eventually have more money than exists in the universe (particularly because I would be trading in the 24/7/365 cryptocurrency markets).

你看,如果我有一個系統有保證的對我來説,即使是1.005X的日回報率-無論是股票、債券還是散户套利-我都不會告訴任何人。我為什麼要這麼做?只要有一點耐心和複數的魔力,我最終會有比宇宙中存在的更多的錢(特別是因為我將在24/7/365的加密貨幣市場進行交易)。

In many cases for non-tangible, open-ended service industries, the less likely something is to work, the more incentive there is to sell it. Take a moment to think about that. Now, take a look at Palantir’s insider selling record.

在許多情況下,對於無形的、開放式的服務行業,一些東西越不可能奏效,就越有動力出售它。花點時間想一想這一點。現在,看看Palantir的內幕銷售記錄。

Although you can never presume someone’s motivation, it should be at least alarming that insiders having been selling, particularly one Alexander C. Karp, Palantir’s CEO. If you look at Karp’s record, we’re left with some uncomfortable assumptions.

儘管你永遠無法推測某人的動機,但至少應該讓人警惕的是,內部人士一直在拋售股票,特別是Palantir的首席執行官亞歷山大·C·卡普(Alexander C.Karp)。如果你看看卡普的記錄,我們會發現一些令人不快的假設。

He apparently didn’t believe in PLTR stock at $30. He didn’t believe in it at $20. Heck, he even sold shares when it was priced at $10.

他顯然不相信30美元的PLTR股票。他不相信20美元的價格。見鬼,他甚至在10美元的價格下賣出了股票。

So, at what price does Karp believe in his own stock? Whatever that price is, that’s the valuation where I’d be most interested in Palantir, not any higher.

那麼,卡普相信自己股票的價格是多少呢?無論這個價格是多少,這都是我對Palantir最感興趣的估值,而不是更高。

Do What’s Best for You

做對你最好的事

As I write this, PLTR stock trades at nearly $25. From the records, I can tell you with some confidence that this isn’t the price Karp is looking at to get back in. On Aug. 4, 2021, the CEO sold 1.92 million shares at $22.09. Presuming rational capitalism, he’s not going to buy back at $25.

在我寫這篇文章的時候,PLTR的股票交易價格接近25美元。從記錄上看,我可以有一點信心地告訴你,這不是卡普想要回來的價格。2021年8月4日,這位首席執行官以22.09美元的價格出售了192萬股票。假設是理性資本主義,他不會以25美元的價格回購。

Now, the counterargument is that Karp wants to buy a new yacht or a helicopter to land on his new yacht. Certainly, he has the right to do that. But that would then raise another question: if a depreciating asset like a yacht is worth more than a potentially appreciating asset like PLTR stock, is PLTR really worth it when those closest to it are exiting?

現在,相反的論點是,卡普想買一艘新遊艇或一架直升機,以便降落在他的新遊艇上。當然,他有權這樣做。但這將引發另一個問題:如果遊艇等貶值資產的價值超過PLTR股票等潛在升值資產的價值,那麼當與PLTR關係最密切的人退出時,PLTR真的值得嗎?

This again brings me back to the theoretical concept of guaranteed returns. If Palantir’s system was so great, I have a hard time believing insiders would be selling so much equity in the business. With some patience, Karp and his colleagues could buy fleets of yachts and helicopters.

這又讓我回到了保證回報的理論概念上。如果Palantir的系統如此出色,我很難相信內部人士會出售如此多的公司股權。只要有一些耐心,卡普和他的同事們就可以購買遊艇和直升機。

But since insiders don’t have much confidence in PLTR stock — I’m also a believer in actions speaking louder than words — you should do what’s best for you regarding Palantir. God knows that Palantir executives are doing just that.

但由於內部人士對PLTR股票沒有太大信心-我也相信行動勝於雄辯-關於Palantir,你應該做對你最好的事情。天曉得Palantir的高管們就是這麼做的。

On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在出版之日,喬什·恩諾本(Josh Enomoto)沒有(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。本文表達的觀點是作者的觀點,以InvestorPlace.com為準出版指南.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare.

曾擔任索尼電子(Sony Electronics)高級商業分析師的喬什·內本(Josh Enomoto)曾幫助撮合過財富全球500強(Fortune Global 500)公司的重大合同。在過去的幾年裏,他為投資市場以及包括法律、建築管理和醫療保健在內的各種其他行業提供了獨特的、至關重要的見解。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
    搶先評論