Original title: Morgan StanleyThere are three reasons not to worry about global economic stagnation

About a year ago, the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases raised fears of a return to the blockade, while the delay in the passage of additional fiscal stimulus in the US also led to fears that there would be problems with the recovery in consumption.

Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley) thinksTodayWe are facingThe panic that economic growth is being hampered again。但Just like last time.The panic will also dissipate.

1. VirusSpread andEconomicsThe relevance of developmentContinue to evolve

The more contagious Delta variant has led to a rebound in cases, especially in unvaccinated people. However, it is encouraging that all indications are that existing vaccines are still very effective in preventing severe diseases, thus greatly relieving pressure on the health system.

As a result, for economies with relatively high vaccination rates, such as the US, the UK and the eurozone, Morgan Stanley expects its health systems to be exempt from heavy burdens, making it less likely to restore strict blockades.

For economies that have lagged behind in vaccination efforts, such as parts of Asia, the risk is that the variants of the virus will delay full deregulation.

While external demand and capital spending in these economies are also recovering, Morgan Stanley believes domestic consumption in these countries will be curbed over the next three to four months.

However, vaccination rates are expected to increase, which will give policymakers more flexibility in reopening the economy, laying the foundation for a full recovery later this year.

2、美China's withdrawal of policy support is not as fast as expected.

As the recovery progresses and economies gradually return to normal, it is only natural that policymakers begin to consider withdrawing stimulus policies.

However,Morgan StanleyIt is believed that neither fiscal policy nor monetary policy support will be used.exceeding one's expectationsThe speed of the cancellation.

The US economic recovery already has a solid foundation. The salary income is 105% of that before the outbreak of COVID-19, and the actual investment has increased by 4%, and the GDP has also reached the level before the outbreak of COVID-19.

Although fiscal stimulus will weaken this year, its impact on economic growth has been exaggerated because fiscal policy has largely taken the form of direct payments to households.

In fact,Excess payment金Still there.On the household balance sheetWaiting to beConsumption. American families have accumulated2.3Trillions of dollarsExcessSavings。

Morgan Stanley expects US GDP to grow 7.1 per cent year-on-year in 2021 and 4.9 per cent year-on-year in 2022, but these forecasts are not based on the assumption of a reduction in excess savings.

Alan Ellen Zentner, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, expectsThe Federal Reserve will2021年9Forward-looking guidelines are issued in April and are available in the2022年3It was officially announced in April that the scale of bond purchases would be reduced.With the risk of early debt reduction。

Morgan Stanley expects that by the time it begins to scale back its bond purchases, the US economy will be much higher than it was before COVID-19 's outbreak, and the core PCE price index will continue to grow at an annual rate of more than 2 per cent, the result of a combination of base effects and temporary factors.

Umur6 unemployment rate (reflects the percentage of unemployed, underemployed and unwilling to look for work. Many economists believe that this is the best measure of unemployment in a country.) it will reach about 8.5%, up from 7% before the outbreak, but down from 13% when the Fed shrank its schedule in December 2013.

3. SupplyShortageIt's temporary.

Supplier delivery times and inventories in the manufacturing PMI index continue to reflect supply shortages. More importantly, these obstacles have curbed production, such as chip shortages hampering car production, leading to an unexpected decline in industrial production growth in Japan and South Korea.

Similarly, labour shortages have hampered the growth of the service sector, especially in the United States. Labor force participation in the United States has been curbed, in part because some states are still offering generous unemployment benefits and schools have not yet fully restored normal teaching.

But,Morgan StanleyPredict the future3-4The supply of labor force will improve in six months.So as to promote production.，使InventoryReturnNormal level, forGDPGrowth provides strongpower。

4. Summary

Overall, Morgan Stanley thinks such panic is nothing to be afraid of. In fact, while there have been some unexpected downturns in more epidemic-hit economies such as India, they have been offset by upward growth in Europe and Latin America.

As a result, Morgan Stanley keeps its global growth forecast unchanged in its mid-year outlook.即2021YearlyGlobalGDPThe annual growth rate is6.5%，2022The annual growth rate is4.9%。

More importantly, the outlook for global demand is strong, and Morgan Stanley still believesFiery heatThe capital expenditure cycle will make the worldGDPFrom this quarterStart至2022At the end of the yearHas been maintained inEpidemic situationAbove the level before the outbreak.