Business economists are increasingly optimistic about the growth outlook for the US economy in 2021, and most believe that core inflationary pressures will ease by the end of the year.
The median forecast for economists is 6.7 per cent real growth in 2021, up from 4.8 per cent in March, according to a survey by the (NABE) of the national association of business economists.
Respondents believe that the personal consumption expenditure price index (excluding food and energy) will fall to 2.1% in the fourth quarter, and is expected to be 2.6% from April to June.
Holly Wade, who is in charge of the survey, said in a statement that inflation expectations are significantly higher than in March, but those surveyed expect inflation to moderate in the second half of 2021 and not rise again in 2022.
CPI in the last three months of this year will grow 2.8 per cent year-on-year, before falling to 2.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the survey.
About 2/3 of respondents expect U.S. employment to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year or 2022, earlier than they had predicted in previous surveys. According to survey respondents, the unemployment rate is likely to average 5.6% this year and 4.3% next year.