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Commodities Boom Hits Home

Commodities Boom Hits Home

大宗商品熱潮擊中要害
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2021/03/17 10:38

Prices are surging for the raw materials used to build American homes.

用於建造美國住宅的原材料價格正在飆升。

Lumber, one of the biggest costs in home-building after land and labor, has never been more expensive and is more than twice the typical price for this time of year. Crude oil, a starting point for paint, drain pipe, roof shingles and flooring, has shot up more than 80% since October. Copper, which carries water and electricity throughout houses, costs about a third more than it did in the autumn.

木材是房屋建設中僅次於土地和勞動力的最大成本之一,從未像現在這樣昂貴,是一年中這個時候典型價格的兩倍多。原油是油漆、排水管、屋頂瓦片和地板的起點,自去年10月以來已經飆升了80%以上。銅的價格比秋季的價格高出約三分之一。銅可以把水和電輸送到各家各處。

Prices for granite, insulation, concrete blocks and common brick have all pushed to records in 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistic's producer-price index, which measures the change in prices that producers receive for their output. Drywall and ceramic tiles are short of records but have also climbed.

根據美國勞工統計局(Bureau Of Labor Statistics)的生產者價格指數(PPI),花崗巖、絕緣材料、混凝土磚和普通磚的價格都在2021年創下歷史新高。生產者價格指數衡量的是生產者從產品中獲得的價格變化。石膏板和瓷磚雖然沒有記錄,但也有所攀升。

Materials producers like paintmaker Sherwin-Williams Co. and flooring manufacturer Mohawk Industries Inc. as well as builders D.R. Horton Inc. and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. have been raising prices to pass along higher costs. They can thank historically low borrowing costs, federal stimulus payments and a hunt for yield that has sent investors barreling into the home-rental business.

油漆製造商舍温-威廉姆斯公司(Sherwin-Williams Co.)、地板製造商莫霍克工業公司(Mohawk Industries Inc.)以及建築商D.R.Horton Inc.和霍夫納尼亞企業公司(Hovnanian Enterprise Inc.)等材料生產商一直在提高價格,以轉嫁更高的成本。他們可以感謝歷史上較低的借貸成本,聯邦刺激計劃的支付,以及對收益的追逐,這促使投資者蜂擁進入房屋租賃業務。

"Whoever the home buyers are, they have been able to pay for it," said Todd Tomalak, who tracks building products for John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

約翰·伯恩斯房地產諮詢公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)跟蹤建築產品的託德·托馬拉克(Todd Tomalak)説,“無論購房者是誰,他們都有能力支付。”

American Homes 4 Rent, which built more than 1,600 rentals last year and plans to construct another 2,000 houses this year, said its lumber bill is between $20,000 and $25,000 per house, up from about $10,000.

美國房屋4租賃公司(American Homes 4 Rent)去年建造了1600多套出租房屋,並計劃今年再建造2000套房屋。該公司表示,每套房屋的木材賬單從大約1萬美元上漲到2萬美元到2.5萬美元之間。

"Fortunately, we've been in a rental-rate growing environment, and that has kept us yield neutral," said Jack Corrigan, the company's chief investment officer.

該公司首席投資官傑克·科里根(Jack Corrigan)表示:“幸運的是,我們一直處於租金增長的環境中,這讓我們的收益率保持中性。”

Investors are watching all corners of the economy for signs of stimulus driving a pickup in inflation. They are finding it in housing, where rising input prices are translating into higher costs for consumer goods.

投資者正在關注經濟的各個角落,尋找刺激措施推動通脹回升的跡象。他們在住房領域發現了這一點,不斷上漲的投入價格正在轉化為消費品成本的上升。

Federal Reserve policy makers say they haven't seen enough of a jump in the price of goods and services to alter their course of holding interest rates near zero and pumping cash into the economy, which remains in recession and plagued by unemployment.

美聯儲(Federal Reserve)政策制定者説,他們還沒有看到商品和服務價格出現足夠的躍升,無法改變他們將利率維持在接近零的水平,並向經濟注入大量現金的做法。美國經濟仍處於衰退之中,並受到失業的困擾。

Rock-bottom mortgage rates have made owning a house more affordable, while the Fed's purchasing of mortgage-backed securities has spurred lending. Lower household spending during the lockdown and federal stimulus checks have helped people accumulate down payments. House hunters are bidding up properties alongside legions of investors who are buying and building a growing share of America's houses and renting them out.

最低的抵押貸款利率使人們更容易買得起房子,而美聯儲購買抵押貸款支持證券刺激了放貸。封鎖期間較低的家庭支出和聯邦刺激計劃幫助人們積累了首付。找房子的人和成羣結隊的投資者一起競標房產,這些投資者正在購買和建造越來越多的美國房屋,並將其出租。

The competition for houses has lifted home prices in almost every part of the country, enabling those who already owned to use their homes as cash machines. Americans pocketed $152.7 billion from cash-out refinancings last year and went on a remodeling bender.

對住房的競爭幾乎推高了全國各地的房價,使那些已經擁有住房的人能夠將自己的房子用作提款機。美國人去年從套現再融資中獲利1527億美元,並進行了一場改頭換面的狂歡。

Building supply chains weren't prepared when Americans began swarming model homes and Home Depots in April. Sawmills and factories shut down like most other workplaces early in the lockdown. Oil wells were shut in, and refineries idled. A spate of hurricanes knocked out Gulf Coast facilities that produce polyvinyl chloride, or PVC, raising prices to records for the material used for waste pipes and siding, according to ICIS, which tracks chemical commodities.

當美國人在4月份開始湧入樣板房和家得寶時,供應鏈的建立還沒有準備好。鋸木廠和工廠和大多數其他工作場所一樣,在封鎖初期關閉。油井關閉,煉油廠閒置。據追蹤化學大宗商品的ICIS稱,一連串的颶風摧毀了墨西哥灣沿岸生產聚氯乙烯(PVC)的設施,將用於廢舊管道和壁板的材料的價格推高至創紀錄水平。

Suppliers never caught up. Now building permits for residential construction are being issued at their highest rate since 2006. And the latest round of stimulus checks are landing in bank accounts just in time for spring, when Americans tend to house hunt and start remodeling projects.

供應商從未迎頭趕上。現在,用於住宅建設的建築許可證正在以2006年以來的最高速度發放。最新一輪刺激計劃正好在春季到來之際落地銀行賬户,屆時美國人往往會找房並開始改建項目。

CanWel Building Materials Group Ltd., which distributes building supplies in Canada and the western U.S., has enough orders for rot-resistant wood to keep its lumber-treating facilities running at capacity through 2021.

在加拿大和美國西部分銷建築用品的CanWel建築材料集團有限公司(CanWel Building Materials Group Ltd.)有足夠的耐腐爛木材訂單,足以讓其木材處理設施保持滿負荷運轉到2021年。

"We're sold out. We can't take on any more business this year," Chief Executive Amar Doman told investors last week. "Everything that we're producing is sold, and it's out the door."

首席執行官阿馬爾·多曼(Amar Doman)上週對投資者表示:“我們的門票都賣完了。今年我們不能再接任何業務了。”“我們生產的所有東西都賣了,而且都賣出去了。”

Lumber and other wood products took off last summer and have remained aloft. Futures for delivery this month ran up to $1,040 per thousand board feet, nearly triple the typical price this time of year. The story is similar for oriented strand board, used for walls, floors and roofs. Many engineered wood products are in short supply and hard to find.

木材和其他木製品去年夏天開始起飛,並一直保持在高處。本月交割的期貨價格高達每千板英尺1040美元,幾乎是每年這個時候典型價格的三倍。用於牆壁、地板和屋頂的定向刨花板的情況類似。許多工程木製品供不應求,很難找到。

The National Association of Home Builders says that rising lumber prices have added $24,000 to the cost of building the average single-family home and about $9,000 per apartment. The lobbying group last week asked Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to seek immediate remedies to boost production.

全美住宅建築商協會(National Association Of Home Builders)表示,不斷上漲的木材價格使普通獨棟住宅的建造成本增加了2.4萬美元,每套公寓的建造成本增加了約9000美元。該遊説團體上週要求商務部長吉娜·雷蒙多(Gina Raimondo)尋求立即補救措施,以提高產量。

"Current prices represent an intolerable and frequently insurmountable financial burden to home builders and contractors," the group said.

該組織表示:“目前的價格對房屋建築商和承包商來説是無法忍受的,而且往往是無法逾越的財務負擔。”

Executives with D.R. Horton, the country's largest home builder, said they are paying more for lumber as well as shingles and facing short supplies of windows and appliances.

美國最大的房屋建築商D.R.Horton的高管説,他們正在為木材和瓦片支付更高的價格,並面臨窗户和家電供應短缺的問題。

"We are increasing our prices in general, but we balance our moves in prices relative to affordability and what we think our buyers can actually afford in terms of the monthly payments," finance chief Bill Wheat said.

“我們總體上提高了價格,但我們權衡了價格相對於可負擔性的變動,以及我們認為買家在每月還款方面的實際承受能力,”首席財務官比爾·麥子(Bill Mcand)表示。

Builders boosted prices for nearly three quarters of all floor plans offered during January, according to RBC Capital Markets, compared with 54% of models that became more expensive in December.

根據加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(RBC Capital Markets)的數據,在1月份提供的所有平面圖中,有近四分之三是建築商提高了價格,相比之下,12月份變得更加昂貴的型號中,這一比例為54%。

Some builders are finding limits to what customers will pay. In Raleigh, N.C., Brant Chesson, CEO of Homes by Dickerson, said that last month he lost six customers in one day after he raised prices to cover higher lumber bills.

一些建築商正在尋找客户願意支付的上限。在北卡羅來納州的羅利,Homes by Dickerson的首席執行官布蘭特·切森(Brant Chesson)説,上個月,在他提高價格以彌補木材賬單上漲後,他在一天內失去了六名客户。

"Even though there still is a great sales pace, we lose customers every day," he said.

“儘管銷售速度仍然很快,但我們每天都在流失客户,”他説。

At Burke Brothers Hardware nearby, owner Jeff Hastings is balancing rising costs with keeping customers. He is stocking up on copper wire before prices go any higher and sacrificing his own profit on lumber sales to attract customers who will add higher-margin items, like fasteners and tools, to their tickets.

在附近的伯克兄弟(Burke Brothers)五金店,老闆傑夫·黑斯廷斯(Jeff Hastings)正在平衡不斷上升的成本和留住他在價格進一步上漲之前囤積銅線,並犧牲自己在木材銷售上的利潤,以吸引那些會在門票上添加緊固件和工具等利潤率更高的項目的客户。

"We're not going to gouge people this year just to make a profit," he said.

他説:“我們今年不會僅僅為了盈利而敲詐人。”

Dow Jones Newswires

道瓊斯通訊社

By Ryan Dezember and Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez

作者:Ryan Dezember和Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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