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What's missing from Warren Buffett's annual letter

What's missing from Warren Buffett's annual letter

沃倫·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的年度信函中遺漏了什麼
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2021/02/28 19:31

By Andrew Bary

安德魯·巴里(Andrew Bary)著

The highlight of Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter was his discussion of Berkshire Hathaway's stepped-up stock-buyback activity, which totaled $9 billion in each of the final two quarters of 2020 and $24.7 billion for the year, up from $4.9 billion in 2019.

沃倫·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)年度股東信的亮點是他對伯克希爾哈撒韋(Berkshire Hathaway)加大股票回購活動的討論,2020年最後兩個季度的股票回購總額為90億美元,全年為247億美元,高於2019年的49億美元。

That should cheer $Berkshire Hathaway Inc.-Class B(BRK.B.US)$ holders as a clear sign that Buffett views the shares as undervalued.

這應該值得歡呼$Berkshire Hathaway Inc.-B類(BRK.B.US)$股東認為這是一個明確的跡象,表明巴菲特認為這些股票被低估了。

The stock trailed the S&P 500 index by a total of more than 40 percentage points during 2019 and 2020. Last year's buybacks, which totaled 5.2% of Berkshire's shares outstanding, have continued at a strong pace in 2021, with more than $4 billion repurchased through Feb. 16, our analysis shows.

在2019年至2020年期間,該股總共落後標準普爾500指數逾40個百分點。去年的回購總額佔伯克希爾哈撒韋公司流通股的5.2%,2021年繼續以強勁的速度回購我們的分析顯示,截至2月16日,回購了超過40億美元。

What was missing from the 14-page letter released early Saturday was a discussion of many topics that are important to Berkshire investors. Buffett didn't talk about succession, the significant underperformance of Berkshire shares, missed investment opportunities during 2020, and Berkshire's leadership team.

週六早些時候公佈的這封長達14頁的信中,遺漏了對伯克希爾投資者來説很重要的許多話題的討論。巴菲特沒有談到繼任、伯克希爾股票表現嚴重不佳、在2020年錯失了投資機會以及伯克希爾的領導團隊。

Berkshire CEO Buffett also didn't address the lack of a dividend at Berkshire, which Barron's has advocated , given its ample earnings and huge cash position.

伯克希爾首席執行長巴菲特(Buffett)也沒有提到巴倫一直主張的伯克希爾缺乏股息的問題,因為它有充足的收益和鉅額現金頭寸。

"Before I read the letter, I like to think, 'What could surprise me?,'" says David Rolfe, chief investment officer at Wedgewood Partners in St. Louis. "There haven't been a whole lot of surprises in the past few years."

聖路易斯韋奇伍德合夥公司(Westgewood Partners)首席投資官大衞·羅爾夫(David Rolfe)説:“在我讀這封信之前,我喜歡想,‘什麼能讓我大吃一驚?’”“在過去的幾年裏,並沒有太多令人意外的事情。”

Rolfe, who sold out of a longstanding Berkshire holding in 2019, called the letter a "trip down memory lane" by the 90-year-old Buffett. The CEO discussed the history of long-term Berkshire holdings See's Candies, Nebraska Furniture Mart, and Geico, and gave a nod to a group of Nebraska doctors now around 100 years old who have held Berkshire for more than 50 years.

羅爾夫在2019年出售了伯克希爾哈撒韋公司長期持有的股份,他稱這封信是90歲高齡的巴菲特的一次“回憶之旅”。這位首席執行官談到了伯克希爾哈撒韋公司長期持有的糖果、內布拉斯加州傢俱市場和Geico的歷史,並向一羣現在大約100歲的內布拉斯加州醫生點頭,他們已經持有伯克希爾哈撒韋公司50多年。

Berkshire's class A shares, which finished Friday at $364,580, are up 4.7% so far in 2021. The class B stock ended Friday at $240.51. Barron's has written favorably about Berkshire, arguing that the stock looks inexpensive given an attractive valuation at less than 1.3 times year-end 2020 book value and a strong earnings outlook for 2021. Berkshire's operating earnings per share were up 19% in the fourth quarter.

伯克希爾的A類股上週五收於364,580美元,2021年迄今已上漲4.7%。B類股上週五收於240.51美元。Barron‘s曾撰文看好伯克希爾哈撒韋公司,認為考慮到其具有吸引力的估值不到2020年底賬面價值的1.3倍,以及2021年強勁的盈利前景,該公司股票看起來並不昂貴。伯克希爾第四季度每股運營收益增長了19%。

On buybacks, Buffett wrote: "Last year we demonstrated our enthusiasm for Berkshire's spread of properties by repurchasing the equivalent of 80,998 'A' shares, spending $24.7 billion in the process. That action increased your ownership in all of Berkshire's businesses by 5.2% without requiring you to so much as touch your wallet."

在回購方面,巴菲特寫道:“去年,我們通過回購相當於80,998股‘A股’的股票,花費了247億美元,展示了我們對伯克希爾哈撒韋公司資產擴張的熱情。這一行動使你在伯克希爾所有業務中的持股增加了5.2%,而你甚至不需要碰錢包。”

"The buybacks are really impressive," says Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward Jones with a Buy rating on Berkshire. "It's not what I would have expected a year ago."

愛德華·瓊斯(Edward Jones)分析師吉姆·沙納漢(Jim Shanahan)對伯克希爾的評級為買入,他説:“回購真的令人印象深刻。”“這不是我一年前預料到的。”

Buffett took the blame for Berkshire's ill-fated 2016 purchase for around $33 billion of Precision Castparts, a maker of aircraft parts hard hit by the aerospace downturn. It was the subject of a write-down of more than $10 billion in 2020.

巴菲特為伯克希爾2016年以約330億美元收購精密鑄件公司(Precision CastParts)的交易承擔了責任。精密鑄件公司是一家飛機零部件製造商,受到航空航天行業低迷的沉重打擊。2020年,它的資產減記超過100億美元。

"I paid too much for the company. No one misled me in any way -- I was simply too optimistic about PCC's normalized profit potential. Last year, my miscalculation was laid bare by adverse developments throughout the aerospace industry, PCC's most important source of customers," Buffett wrote. Shanahan noted that Buffett, "always a gentleman, wouldn't throw anybody under the bus" for the deal.

巴菲特寫道:“我為這家公司支付了太高的價格。沒有人以任何方式誤導我--我只是對PCC正常化的盈利潛力過於樂觀。去年,我的誤判暴露在整個航空航天行業的不利發展中,這是PCC最重要的客户來源。”沙納漢指出,巴菲特“永遠是一位紳士,不會把任何人扔到公交車下”。

In the past, Buffett has written that if Berkshire can't beat the S&P 500 over time, investors would be better off buying an index fund. Berkshire has trailed the S&P 500 over the past five and 10 years.

過去,巴菲特曾寫道,如果隨着時間的推移,伯克希爾不能擊敗標準普爾500指數(S&P500),投資者最好購買指數基金。伯克希爾在過去五年和十年裏一直落後於標準普爾500指數。

Buffett didn't discuss that in the letter or offer a view on whether he thinks Berkshire can beat the S&P 500 in the future.

巴菲特在信中沒有討論這一點,也沒有就他認為伯克希爾哈撒韋公司未來能否擊敗標準普爾500指數提出看法。

Among the reasons for the underperformance is Berkshire's inability to find what he has called an elephant-size acquisition to sop up Berkshire's enormous cash holdings, which totaled $138 billion at year-end 2020.

業績不佳的原因之一是,伯克希爾無法找到他所説的大象大小的收購來吸收伯克希爾持有的鉅額現金。截至2020年底,伯克希爾持有的現金總額為1,380億美元。

Berkshire also failed to capitalize on the stock market's drop in early 2020 as it was a net seller of about $8 billion of stocks during the year, including airline and financial holdings.

伯克希爾也未能利用2020年初股市下跌的機會,因為它在這一年淨賣出了約80億美元的股票,其中包括航空公司和金融機構持有的股票。

Rolfe would like to see a more prominent role for Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, Berkshire executives who each run an estimated $20 billion of the company's $281 billion equity portfolio.

羅爾夫希望看到託德·庫姆斯(Todd Combs)和泰德·韋斯切勒(Ted Weschler)在伯克希爾哈撒韋公司的高管中扮演更重要的角色,他們各自管理着公司2810億美元股票投資組合中的約200億美元。

They are likely to take over the entire portfolio in the post-Buffett era, and are thought to have bought new-economy companies like Amazon.com (AMZN) and Snowflake (SNOW) for Berkshire, while Buffett's two major purchases in 2020 were Chevron (CVX) and Verizon Communications (VZ).

他們可能會在後巴菲特時代接手整個投資組合,並被認為已經為伯克希爾收購了亞馬遜(Amazon.com)和雪花(Snowflake)等新經濟公司,而巴菲特在2020年的兩大收購是雪佛龍(Chevron)和威瑞森通信(Verizon Communications)。

"Buffett loves baseball analogies," Rolfe said. "I would have liked him to have said: 'Ted and Todd have been here for about 10 years and they have proven that they can hit big-league pitching, so I'm promoting them to the big leagues and their new quest is to shrink the number of stocks they own and swing a fat bat so their one or two best ideas will be on our list of largest equity holdings."'

“巴菲特喜歡棒球的類比,”羅爾夫説。“我希望他會説:‘泰德和託德已經在這裏待了大約10年了,他們已經證明了他們可以在大聯盟投球,所以我把他們提升到大聯盟,他們的新目標是減少他們擁有的股票數量,揮舞着一隻肥大的蝙蝠,這樣他們的一兩個最好的想法就會出現在我們的最大股票持有量名單上。”

Buffett has praised Combs and Weschler, noting that each has closely matched the S&P 500 with the portfolios they manage and have done better than him.

巴菲特讚揚了庫姆斯和韋斯切勒,指出這兩家公司都將標準普爾500指數與他們管理的投資組合緊密匹配,而且都比他做得更好。

The CEO, who turned 90 in August, shows no signs of giving up the leadership role that he has had since 1965. It's telling that Berkshire's annual meeting, to be held virtually in Los Angeles on May 1, will feature Buffett and his longtime partner, the 97-year-old Vice Chairman Charlie Munger, who didn't participate in last year's meeting.

這位今年8月滿90歲的首席執行官沒有表現出放棄自1965年以來一直擔任的領導角色的跡象。很能説明問題的是,伯克希爾將於5月1日在洛杉磯召開年會,巴菲特和他的長期合作伙伴、97歲的副董事長查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)將出席會議。芒格沒有參加去年的會議。

Buffett's likely successor as CEO, Greg Abel, a Berkshire vice chairman and head of the company's vast noninsurance operations, will play a secondary role after sharing the stage with Buffett at the company's 2020 virtual annual meeting. Abel and veteran Berkshire insurance executive Ajit Jain will be available to answer shareholder questions at the meeting about their operations.

巴菲特可能的繼任者、伯克希爾副董事長、公司龐大的非保險業務負責人格雷格·阿貝爾(Greg Abel)將在2020年公司虛擬年會上與巴菲特同台後,扮演次要角色。阿貝爾和伯克希爾資深保險高管阿吉特·賈恩(Ajit Jain)將在會上回答股東關於他們運營的問題。

"And now -- drum roll, please -- a surprise," Buffett wrote. "This year our meeting will be held in Los Angeles...and Charlie will be on stage with me offering answers and observations throughout the 31 2-hour question period. I missed him last year and, more important, you clearly missed him."

巴菲特寫道:“現在--請擊鼓--給我一個驚喜。”“今年我們的會面將在洛杉磯舉行……在31個2小時的提問時間裏,查理將和我一起上台提供答案和觀察。我去年很想念他,更重要的是,你顯然很想念他。”

This could be one of the last meetings that the legendary pair share the stage, given their advanced age, and most shareholders likely will relish the opportunity to see them together even if it means giving short shrift to the next generation of leadership.

考慮到這對傳奇人物年事已高,這可能是他們最後幾次同台的會議之一,大多數股東可能會很高興有機會看到他們在一起,即使這意味着對下一代領導層不屑一顧。

Write to Andrew Bary at andrew.bary@barrons.com

寫信給安德魯·巴里,電子郵件:andrew.bary@Barrons.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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February 27, 2021 14:30 ET (19:30 GMT)

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