Goldman Sachs analyst Tina Hou reiterated a Buy rating on Li Auto Inc (NASDAQ:LI) with a price target of $43.60.
On Monday, Li Auto reported fiscal first-quarter 2024 revenue growth of 36.4% year-on-year to $3.55 billion, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $3.84 billion. Adjusted net earnings per ADS was $0.17, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $0.35.
Hou noted the next few quarters will be a transition period for Li Auto, with the company re-aligning its strategy on product launch, pricing adjustment, sales networks adjustment, and headcount optimization.
The analyst noted that Li Auto's BEV SUV model launch schedule is delayed to the first half of 2025 from the second half of 2024, and the models will be launched in sequence rather than together.
Li Auto lowered L7, L8, L9, and Mega prices by 18k Chinese yuan to 30k Chinese yuan on April 22, and management disclosed no plans for further price cuts at this stage. However, given the competitive market environment, the analyst expects further price cuts to be carried out into the second half of 2024.
Li Auto management shared plans to adjust the pace of the sales network expansion in 2024 based on the company's new sales target, closing low-efficiency stores and increasing the proportion of auto park stores, with the total store number below 800 by the end of 2024, Hou said.
Reports indicated that Li Auto started an 18% layoff on April 16. The analyst added that the ADAS team will be scaled back to 1,000 people vs. the previous end-2024 target of 2,000.
Li Auto is a pure NEV player with a 5% NEV market share in China; as Hou noted, the company will have the most robust model pipeline of 5 new launches and the solid sales network expansion of 400 stores in China in 2024. The analyst expects the competitive positioning of BEV models and deepening sales network to drive another leg of growth for Li Auto. With continued scale economics and operating leverage, Hou expects Li Auto to deliver the fastest earnings growth with top-tier free cash flow generation among his China Auto OEM coverage.
Li Auto's upcoming catalysts include new model launches, city NOA development, and quarterly results.
Li Auto stock lost nearly 30% in the last 12 months. Investors can gain exposure to the stock via VanEck Low Carbon Energy ETF (NYSE:SMOG) and First Trust Long/Short Equity (NYSE:FTLS).
Price Action: LI shares traded lower by 3.85% at $20.88 at the last check Tuesday.
高盛分析師蒂娜·侯重申了對理想汽車公司（納斯達克股票代碼：LI）的買入評級，目標股價爲43.60美元。
週一，理想汽車公佈2024財年第一季度收入同比增長36.4％，達到35.5億美元，未達到分析師共識估計的38.4億美元。調整後的每股ADS淨收益爲0.17美元，未達到分析師共識估計的0.35美元。
侯指出，未來幾個季度將是理想汽車的過渡期，公司將重新調整其產品發佈、定價調整、銷售網絡調整和員工人數優化方面的戰略。
該分析師指出，理想汽車的BEV SUV車型發佈計劃從2024年下半年推遲到2025年上半年，這些車型將按順序而不是一起推出。
4月22日，理想汽車將L7、L8、L9和Mega的價格下調了1.8萬元人民幣至3萬元人民幣，管理層現階段沒有透露進一步降價的計劃。但是，鑑於競爭激烈的市場環境，分析師預計進一步降價將持續到2024年下半年。
侯說，理想汽車管理層分享了根據公司新的銷售目標在2024年調整銷售網絡擴張步伐的計劃，關閉低效率門店並增加汽車停放門店的比例，到2024年底，門店總數將低於800家。
報告顯示，理想汽車於4月16日開始裁員18％。該分析師補充說，ADAS團隊將縮減至1,000人，而之前的目標是2024年底的2,000人。
理想汽車是一家純新能源汽車公司，在中國擁有5％的新能源汽車市場份額；正如侯所指出的那樣，2024年，該公司將擁有最強大的5款新上市車型和400家中國門店的穩健銷售網絡擴張。該分析師預計，電動汽車車型的競爭定位和不斷深化的銷售網絡將推動理想汽車的又一輪增長。憑藉持續的規模經濟和運營槓桿作用，侯預計，在他的中國汽車整車廠業務中，理想汽車將實現最快的收益增長，並創造一流的自由現金流。
Li Auto即將推出的催化劑包括新車型的發佈、城市NOA開發和季度業績。
在過去的12個月中，理想汽車的股票下跌了近30％。投資者可以通過VanEck低碳能源ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：SMOG）和第一信託多頭/空頭股票（紐約證券交易所代碼：FTLS）獲得股票敞口。
價格走勢：在週二的最後一次檢查中，LI股價下跌3.85％，至20.88美元。
