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A Piece Of The Puzzle Missing From Noah Holdings Limited's (NYSE:NOAH) 32% Share Price Climb

Simply Wall St ·  May 21 08:24

The Noah Holdings Limited (NYSE:NOAH) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 32%. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, Noah Holdings may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7.3x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 18x and even P/E's higher than 33x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, Noah Holdings has been doing quite well of late. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company's earnings are going to fall away like everyone else's soon. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

pe-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:NOAH Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry May 21st 2024
Keen to find out how analysts think Noah Holdings' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is Noah Holdings' Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as Noah Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any earnings per share growth to speak of for the company over the past year. The longer-term trend has been no better as the company has no earnings growth to show for over the last three years either. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has definitely eluded the company recently.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the eight analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 11% per year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be similar to the 10% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we find it odd that Noah Holdings is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.

The Bottom Line On Noah Holdings' P/E

Shares in Noah Holdings are going to need a lot more upward momentum to get the company's P/E out of its slump. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Noah Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. There could be some unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the outlook. It appears some are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide more support to the share price.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Noah Holdings that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Noah Holdings. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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