NiSource Inc.'s (NYSE:NI) robust recent earnings didn't do much to move the stock. We think this is due to investors looking beyond the statutory profits and being concerned with what they see.
One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. In fact, NiSource increased the number of shares on issue by 8.5% over the last twelve months by issuing new shares. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. Check out NiSource's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.
A Look At The Impact Of NiSource's Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)
As you can see above, NiSource has been growing its net income over the last few years, with an annualized gain of 367% over three years. But EPS was only up 325% per year, in the exact same period. And over the last 12 months, the company grew its profit by 4.8%. Meanwhile, EPS was flat over the same period. Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns.
In the long term, earnings per share growth should beget share price growth. So it will certainly be a positive for shareholders if NiSource can grow EPS persistently. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On NiSource's Profit Performance
Each NiSource share now gets a meaningfully smaller slice of its overall profit, due to dilution of existing shareholders. Because of this, we think that it may be that NiSource's statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. But the good news is that its EPS growth over the last three years has been very impressive. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for NiSource you should be mindful of and 1 of these is a bit unpleasant.
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of NiSource's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.