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新興市場見通し:主力処も弱いことから、反発のきっかけ待ちの状況が続くか

Emerging market outlook: Since the main forces are also weak, will the situation of waiting for a rebound continue

Fisco Japan ·  May 18 00:11

■Both the Growth Market Index and Growth Market 250 Index hit year-to-date lows


Emerging markets fell this week. As for the gain/fall rate for the same period, the weakness of emerging markets was conspicuous, with the Nikkei Average being +1.46%, while the growth market index was -2.58% and the growth market 250 index was -2.65%. Financial results announcements in emerging markets have also increased, and similar to the prime market, it has become centered around stocks announcing financial results, but the fact that there was not even financial results on the main market core index constituent stocks such as JTOWER <4485> and TRITE <9164> had an effect, and both the Growth Market Index and the Growth Market 250 Index have hit lows since the beginning of the year. The trading price exceeded 100 billion yen for the first time in about a month, but both indices strengthened their downward movement.


Among the top stocks by market capitalization, the GNI Group <2160>, which announced financial results, fell by over 10% over the weekend, and the cover <5253>, which also announced financial results, was heavily bought right after the announcement, but after a round of buying, it was pushed to sell. Meanwhile, financial results were viewed as material, and Adventure <6030> became a buying advantage, and CUC (9158) also remained strong. In addition to this, Coly (4175), which announced that the TV broadcast of the anime program “The Wizard's Promise” was decided in January 25, skyrocketed, and Trust HD (3286) also increased drastically due to the fact that the establishment of a new shareholder benefit system was viewed as a material. <147A>Meanwhile, Soracom, which had continued to sell since 5/2, did not stop falling even after financial results were announced on the 10th, and it continued to decline for 9 days until a slight rebound over the weekend.

■Where I want to test the rebound from the year-to-date low


The emerging markets next week would like to test a rebound from the year-to-date low, but there is no reason for the rebound. There is no improvement in investor sentiment in this week's financial results announcements, such as sales reactions being conspicuous.


GNI Group, Cover, Trite, etc. that announced financial results this week announced it at the same time that they are preparing to apply for a classification change to Prime. Originally, if the division were to be changed to the prime market, it is likely to be positive material in terms of supply and demand, such as being subject to passive management, but investors' reactions are limited. Looking at the movement where the GNI Group expanded the decline and updated the year-to-date low after one round of buying over the weekend, it is difficult to think positive ideas such as “testing a rebound next week.” Both the growth market index and the growth market 250 index fell below year-to-date lows in April, deviated downward from the 25th moving average, and the downward bias seems to intensify. Investor sentiment is likely to improve if GNI Group, Trite, etc. show bottoming out, but is this a tough situation?


Meanwhile, the “strengthening of corporate governance” promoted by the Tokyo Stock Exchange can be cited as one of the triggers for revitalizing emerging markets. “Examination relating to listing standards in the growth market” was discussed during the “Follow-up on Market Segmentation Review” held on March 22. Since this meeting is held irregularly, it is unclear when and what kind of announcements will be implemented, but a plan to “strengthen corporate governance” for the growth market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange will be announced somewhere. Investors do not show interest in the growth market when specific proposals from the Tokyo Stock Exchange do not come out. In other words, I think the “waiting” situation will continue for some time in emerging markets.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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