The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:XERS), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$41m and leading to a corresponding blowout in statutory losses. The loss per share was US$0.14, some 20% larger than the analysts forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Xeris Biopharma Holdings' five analysts is for revenues of US$183.5m in 2024. This would reflect a reasonable 7.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to US$0.42. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$184.4m and losses of US$0.39 per share in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a modest increase to its losses per share forecasts.
Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 6.5% to 4.6, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Xeris Biopharma Holdings at US$6.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$4.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Xeris Biopharma Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 9.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 60% over the past five years. Compare this to the 284 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Xeris Biopharma Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Xeris Biopharma Holdings. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Xeris Biopharma Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Xeris Biopharma Holdings (1 is a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.
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