The Zhitong Finance App learned that recently, Cui Dongshu released an analysis of the operating characteristics of the national passenger car market in April. Auto market retail sales in the first quarter of 2024 basically achieved the expected good start trend. Although April had 22 working days, two more days than the previous year, there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among consumers due to price instability and other factors, and passenger car retail sales showed a cyclical month-on-month downward trend in April. The price war for new energy vehicles has brought about a certain increase, but it is not very sustainable, and internal segmentation is serious.

With the introduction and gradual implementation of trade-in and end-of-life renewal policies, the Ministry of Commerce organized and carried out national automobile trade-in promotions, and automobile manufacturers and sales enterprises carried out supporting promotional activities. Many places support the trade-in of eligible cars through energy saving and emission reduction subsidy funds arranged by the central financial administration, and joint efforts with corporate promotions provided a good impetus to the car market around “May 1st.”

In April, the national passenger car market retailed 1.53 million vehicles, down 5.8% year on year and 9.4% month on month. Since this year, 6.36 million vehicles have been sold, an increase of 8% over the previous year.

Since the 2023 Spring Festival is the earliest in this century, retail sales performance in the first quarter of 2024 was strong, mainly due to base factors. Growth was weak in April, and there is still potential for a return to better growth in the future.

Passenger car manufacturers across the country wholesale 1.49,000 vehicles in April, up 10% year on year and down 11% month on month. Due to market stabilization and export promotion, manufacturer sales in April were 70,000 units higher than the historical high of 1.88 million units in the same period in April 2018, reaching a record high.

Since 2023, the cumulative wholesale volume has reached a record high of 25.53 million units. In January-March this year, wholesale sales reached 1.95 million units in April, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10%. The overall trend is relatively strong.

Passenger car production in April was 1.98 million units, up 15% year on year and down 10% month on month. Passenger car production in April was 10,000 units higher than the historical high of 1.97 million units in the same period in 2018, a record high.

Passenger car production in January-March was 5.46 million units, up 7% year on year; 1.98 million units in April, up 15%; and 7.44 million units were cumulative in January-April, up 9% year on year. Currently, passenger car production capacity is very strong, but it was still quite restrained in January-April. In April, some major companies made strong adjustments to stabilize production and inventory to ensure a balanced inventory in the dealer system. In particular, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the downward trend in upstream resource prices, NEV production and sales were relatively cautious.

Due to the record high production and exports of manufacturers in April, but retail sales were weak, there was a trend where manufacturers' production was higher than the wholesale volume of 40,000 units, while the domestic wholesale volume of manufacturers was higher than the retail inventory trend of 10,000 units. Manufacturers and channels began to increase in March. April is generally characterized by inventory removal. This year, due to May Day inventory preparation, it is slightly higher, and manufacturers' inventory still needs to be controlled reasonably.

The promotion of new energy vehicles has gradually reached a high level. Promotions have continued to increase in recent months. The increase in NEV promotions was particularly evident in February-April, while sales in April grew relatively moderately, and have now reached a historically high promotion level.

The promotion of traditional fuel vehicles began to rebound sharply in August 2023, rising to 18.9% in April 2024, and is still at a recent high level.

The promotion trends of various car models are relatively divided, and joint ventures have strong promotions. Recently, promotions for autonomous fuel vehicles have also gradually caught up. European and Korean promotions have been strong recently.

Although consumption upgrades drive strong demand for high-end cars, due to the diversion of new energy, luxury car promotions continued to increase to 20.9%, which is the second-highest level in history.

Autonomous vehicle companies' promotions have generally been stable in recent months. Since autonomous new energy promotions are smaller than fuel vehicles, and their share of exports has increased, overall promotions have been relatively stable.

The growth rate of passenger car retail sales in April 2024 was slightly lower than wholesale. Demand for cars declined in April due to weak fuel vehicles. In April, retail sales of sedans were lower than that of SUVs. Among sedans, mainly B-class cars performed better. Sales of A00 class cars rebounded, but sales of A0 class cars lost a lot.

The SUV market is highly high-end, and B-class and C-class SUVs are stronger than last year.

In April, mainstream joint venture brands retailed 450,000 vehicles, down 26% year on year and 9% month on month. The retail share of German brands in April was 19%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous year, and the retail share of Japanese brands was 15.2%, down 3.6 percentage points from the previous year. The retail share of the US brand market reached 5.9%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous year.

Independent brands have gained significant growth in the new energy market and export market. Leading traditional car companies have performed well in transformation and upgrading, while traditional car companies such as Chery, Geely (00175), BYD (002594.SZ), Changan (000625.SZ), and Great Wall (02333) have increased significantly.

In April, the national passenger car market retailed 1.53 million vehicles, down 5.8% year on year and 9.4% month on month.

Passenger car production in April was 1.98 million units, up 15% year on year and down 10% month on month.

Passenger car manufacturers across the country wholesale 1.49,000 vehicles in April, up 10% year on year and down 11% month on month.

In April, passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) were 412,000 units, up 38% year on year and 0.2% month on month, making the highest monthly export volume in history.

The wholesale penetration rate of NEV manufacturers in April was 40%, up 6 percentage points from the 34% penetration rate in April 2023.

In April, the penetration rate of own-brand NEVs was 53.6%; the penetration rate of NEVs among luxury cars was 31.5%; while the penetration rate of NEVs of mainstream joint venture brands was only 6.8%.

In April, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 43.7%, up 11.7 percentage points from the 32% penetration rate in the same period last year.

In April, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 66.8%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 22.6%; while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 7.5%.

In April, retail sales of traditional vehicles fell 22% year on year, while retail sales of new energy vehicles rose 28% year on year, all under high pressure.