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Investors More Bullish on Guangdong Guanghong HoldingsLtd (SZSE:000529) This Week as Stock Surges 16%, Despite Earnings Trending Downwards Over Past Three Years

Simply Wall St ·  May 10 20:14

By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. Just take a look at Guangdong Guanghong Holdings Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000529), which is up 24%, over three years, soundly beating the market decline of 18% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 9.5% in the last year , including dividends .

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Guangdong Guanghong HoldingsLtd investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over the last three years, Guangdong Guanghong HoldingsLtd failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 14% (annualized).

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

The revenue drop of 9.6% is as underwhelming as some politicians. What's clear is that historic earnings and revenue aren't matching up with the share price action, very well. So you might have to dig deeper to get a grasp of the situation

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SZSE:000529 Earnings and Revenue Growth May 11th 2024

Take a more thorough look at Guangdong Guanghong HoldingsLtd's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Guangdong Guanghong HoldingsLtd the TSR over the last 3 years was 33%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Guangdong Guanghong HoldingsLtd has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 9.5% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 5%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Guangdong Guanghong HoldingsLtd (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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