CITIC Securities released a research report stating that it maintains AIA's (01299) “buy” rating, with a target price of HK$83. The value of the company's new business increased 31% year-on-year in the first quarter, and the repurchase plan increased by 2 billion US dollars. In addition, the company updated capital management measures, which exceeded expectations. Strong channel strategies and regional strategies bring about high certainty in value growth, and capital management increases shareholder returns.
According to the report, AIA actively carries out capital management to defend shareholders' interests, which is expected to bring about a rebound in stock prices and valuation repair. Referring to the first quarter situation and the new dividend policy, the 2024-2026 EVPS forecast was adjusted to 6.23, 6.87, and 7.56 US dollars. The previous forecast was 6.34, 7.00, and 7.68 US dollars. The current PEV is 1.3 times, corresponding to the ROEV of 13%. The valuation is still within a reasonable range.
CICC pointed out that as the mainland China and Hong Kong markets, which the company mainly relies on, it is expected that AIA will generally face base pressure in the next quarter, but this will not change the company's steady development momentum and the judgment that the value growth rate of new business is ahead of listed peers throughout the year. Although the Hong Kong business is facing a high base impact after full customs clearance last year, it is expected that the Hong Kong business will also maintain a high new business scale in the short to medium term as factors such as the growing shortage of assets in China and the release of customer demand by Hong Kong's talent policy.