share_log

【特约大V】邓声兴:政策发力 经济企稳 港股反弹仍将持续

[Special Offer V] Deng Shengxing: Policies strengthen the economy, stabilize the economy, and the rebound in Hong Kong stocks will continue

金吾財訊 ·  May 8 21:30

Jinwu Financial News | The Hang Seng Index closed at 18,313 points on Wednesday (8th), down 165 points, or 0.9%. Full-day transactions amounted to $128.655 billion. The national index fell 1.1% to 6456; the technical index fell 1.3% to close at 3872. Ping Bao (02318) fell 3.8%; Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388) fell 3%; Budweiser Asia Pacific (01876) lost 3% in the first quarter and fell 3.9% throughout the day; sales of China's top 100 housing companies plummeted 45% in April, and the monthly performance scale remained at a historically low level. Domestic real estate stocks are still under high pressure, especially second-tier housing stocks. Sunac (01918) dropped 8.4%; Xuhui (00884) plummeted 9.9%;

The Dow closed at 3,9056 points on Wednesday (8th), up 172 points, or 0.44%; the index fell slightly by less than 1 point to close at 5,187 points; and the NASDAQ, which mainly focuses on technology stocks, fell 0.18% to close at 16,302 points. The Golden Dragon Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese concept stocks, returned 0.71%. Among blockbuster stocks, Tesla (Tesla)'s autonomous driving system was accused of misleading investors and consumers. It was reported that it was investigated by the US Department of Justice whether it involved fraud, which dragged down the stock price by 1.7%, and Amazon's stock price fell 0.4%. J.P. Morgan drew 2% higher, while Goldman Sachs and American Express both climbed 0.7%. The e-commerce platform Shopify unexpectedly recorded losses last quarter, breaking records and surging 18.6%; electric truck manufacturer Rivian's losses widened in the first quarter, and the stock price fell 9.8% at one point, then closed up 0.2%. The Asia-Pacific stock market moved individually this morning (9th). The Nikkei 225 Index now reports 38256 points, up 54 points, or 0.14%. The South Korea Composite Index is currently at 2,743 points, down 1.18 points, or 0.04%. With strong policies and economic stabilization, the rebound in Hong Kong stocks will continue.

Market Focus: China Shenhua (01088)

China Shenhua (1088)'s net profit fell 11% year-on-year to 64.625 billion yuan (RMB, same below) last year, in line with expectations; declared a dividend of 2.26 yuan per share, and the implied dividend ratio remained at 70%. The Group's coal production cost is 162.4 yuan per ton, mainly due to reduced labor costs. Notably, the Group successfully avoided a sharp decline in the spot market; the average external sales price per ton fell 10% to 598 yuan year-on-year, while the annual contract coal sales mix ratio was 82%. Operating cash flow is estimated at $80 billion in 2024, and the dividend payout ratio is expected to be over 80%, which means a dividend yield of 9%. The Group announced the main operating data for March 2024. Commercial coal production in March was 28.2 million tons, up 3.3% year on year; coal sales volume was 40 million tons, up 2% year on year. In January-March, the Group's commercial coal production was 81.3 million tons, up 1.5% year on year; coal sales volume was 117.1 million tons, up 8.8% year on year. In the first quarter, the Group achieved revenue of 87.647 billion yuan, an increase of 0.70% over the previous year. The Group's coal profit stability is strong, and new thermal power installations put into operation in the power business are expected to continue to contribute to the increase. The Group's net profit is expected to continue to rise in 2024-2026.

Target price is $38, stop loss price is $31.

(The author is a licensed person of the Securities Regulatory Commission and the author does not hold the above shares)

Author: Dr. Tang Sheng-hing, Chairman of the Hong Kong Association of Equities Analysts

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
    Write a comment