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Is CIG ShangHai (SHSE:603083) A Risky Investment?

Is CIG ShangHai (SHSE:603083) A Risky Investment?

CIG上海(上海證券交易所股票代碼:603083)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  05/08 18:05

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that CIG ShangHai Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603083) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

霍華德·馬克斯說得好,他說的不是擔心股價的波動,而是 “永久損失的可能性是我擔心的風險... 也是我認識的每位實際投資者所擔心的風險。”因此,很明顯,當你考慮任何給定股票的風險時,你需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務會使公司陷入困境。我們可以看到,CIG上海有限公司(SHSE: 603083)確實在其業務中使用了債務。但是,股東是否應該擔心其債務的使用?

When Is Debt A Problem?

債務何時會成爲問題?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

當企業無法輕易履行這些義務時,無論是通過自由現金流還是以誘人的價格籌集資金,債務和其他負債就會面臨風險。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。儘管這種情況不太常見,但我們經常看到負債公司永久稀釋股東,因爲貸款人迫使他們以低價籌集資金。當然,債務可能是企業的重要工具,尤其是資本密集型企業。當我們研究債務水平時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務水平。

What Is CIG ShangHai's Net Debt?

CIG上海的淨負債是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 CIG ShangHai had debt of CN¥1.48b, up from CN¥968.0m in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥745.2m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥733.5m.

您可以點擊下圖查看更多詳情,該圖片顯示,截至2024年3月,CIG上海的債務爲14.8億元人民幣,高於一年的9.68億元人民幣。但是,由於其現金儲備爲7.452億元人民幣,其淨負債較少,約爲7.335億加元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:603083 Debt to Equity History May 8th 2024
SHSE: 603083 2024 年 5 月 8 日債務與股權比率的歷史記錄

How Strong Is CIG ShangHai's Balance Sheet?

CIG上海的資產負債表有多強?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that CIG ShangHai had liabilities of CN¥2.64b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥254.3m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥745.2m and CN¥1.21b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥942.4m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

我們可以從最新的資產負債表中看出,CIG上海的負債爲26.4億元人民幣,一年後到期的負債爲2.543億元人民幣。另一方面,它有一年內到期的現金爲7.452億元人民幣,還有價值12.1億元人民幣的應收賬款。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總額高出9.424億元人民幣。

Given CIG ShangHai has a market capitalization of CN¥9.40b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.

鑑於CIG上海的市值爲940億元人民幣,很難相信這些負債會構成很大的威脅。但是,有足夠的負債,我們肯定會建議股東今後繼續監督資產負債表。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們相對於收益的債務水平。第一個是淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),第二個是其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息保障)的多少倍。因此,我們將債務與收益的關係考慮在內,包括和不包括折舊和攤銷費用。

Weak interest cover of 0.89 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.3 hit our confidence in CIG ShangHai like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Worse, CIG ShangHai's EBIT was down 90% over the last year. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since CIG ShangHai will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

0.89倍的薄弱利息覆蓋率和令人不安的高淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率5.3打擊了我們對CIG上海的信心,就像是一二的衝擊。這意味着我們會認爲它有沉重的債務負擔。更糟糕的是,CIG上海的息稅前利潤比去年下降了90%。如果收益繼續保持這一軌跡,那麼償還債務負擔將比說服我們在雨中跑一場馬拉松更難。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是你不能完全孤立地看待債務;因爲CIG上海需要收益來償還債務。因此,在考慮債務時,絕對值得一看收益趨勢。單擊此處查看交互式快照。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last two years, CIG ShangHai saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

最後,儘管稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。因此,我們顯然需要研究息稅前利潤是否會帶來相應的自由現金流。在過去的兩年中,CIG上海的自由現金流總額爲負數。儘管這可能是增長支出的結果,但它確實使債務風險大大增加。

Our View

我們的觀點

On the face of it, CIG ShangHai's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its level of total liabilities is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We're quite clear that we consider CIG ShangHai to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for CIG ShangHai you should be aware of.

從表面上看,CIG Shanghai將息稅前利潤轉換爲自由現金流使我們對該股持初步看法,其息稅前利潤增長率並不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚那家空蕩蕩的餐廳更具吸引力。但好的一面是,其總負債水平是一個好兆頭,也使我們更加樂觀。我們很清楚,由於其資產負債表狀況良好,我們認爲CIG ShangHai的風險確實相當大。出於這個原因,我們對該股非常謹慎,我們認爲股東應密切關注其流動性。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。一個很好的例子:我們已經發現了兩個你應該注意的CIG上海警告信號。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有興趣投資能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增加利潤的企業,請查看這份資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業的免費清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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