On Monday local time, the US Consumer Housing Expectations Survey Report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that the growth of housing prices and rent prices is expected to accelerate markedly in the next year, and consumer expectations threaten the stability of inflation.

Meanwhile, homeowners' expectations for the possibility of refinancing their mortgages within the next year have rebounded slightly from last year's decline, but they are still far below pre-pandemic levels. However, renters are pessimistic about how easy it is to get a mortgage. 74.2% of them say it is difficult or very difficult to get a mortgage.

According to the survey, only 40% of renters think they can buy a house, which is the lowest level in nearly 10 years. Among them, more than half of the tenants under 50 years of age surveyed think they can't buy a house.

According to the New York Federal Reserve, respondents in February expect average housing price growth after one year to rise from 2.6% in February 2023 to 5.1% in February 2024. This level is also slightly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 4.2%, but still below the 2022 high of 7%. At the same time, the annualized increase in housing prices is expected to fall by 0.1% to 2.7% after five years, compared to 2.8% last year.

In terms of rent, respondents said price growth is expected to rise to 9.7% after one year, which is also the second-highest in the survey's history since 2022, reversing last year's decline. However, the respondents' annualized expectations for five years were basically the same as the previous year, rising slightly from 5.0% to 5.1%.

It can also be found in the report that respondents generally still have a very positive attitude towards housing as a financial investment, but it is slightly weaker than the previous year. They expect mortgage interest rates, which are already high, to continue to rise.

Average expectations for residential mobility (percentage of probability of moving to a different residence) fell to a new low in the survey series within one year (13.4%) and three years (24.5%), continuing the downward trend since 2014.

As for mortgage interest rates, as far as the average household level is concerned, national mortgage interest rates are currently still higher than pre-pandemic levels, and are expected to rise further in the future.

According to current estimates, mortgage interest rates will rise to 8.7% in one year and 9.7% in three years. Both figures are record highs. Despite this, on average, American households think the probability of a decline over the next year has reached 61%, which is also the highest in the series.

Housing prices across the US are still soaring

Various data show that US mortgage interest rates continue to rise, compounded by strong demand and tight housing supply, and US housing prices are rising step by step.

On April 30, the US housing price index released by S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller showed that in February, US housing prices rose 6.4% year on year, and then rose again after the previous month's annual increase of 6%. This is the fastest increase since November 2022.

Among them, the composite housing price index for 10 cities across the US increased by 8%, up from 7.4% last month. The housing price composite index in 20 cities increased by 7.3% per year, up from 6.6% in January.

Meanwhile, according to a research report published by the real estate research agency Point2, even in 2019, housing prices in some cities were only half of what they are now. The rise in housing prices has made many new generations of Americans despair because they find that they can't seem to buy a house no matter how hard they try.

According to research results, the rate of appreciation of a normal house has doubled in about 10 years, but in recent years the rate of increase has been frightening. Under the combined effects of inflation, tight supply, and surging demand, the average housing price in the US rose from around $200,000 to $400,000.

After the pandemic, the world's dollar returned to the US, and the dollar appreciated, compounded by the major events of the next few years, and a large number of infrastructure and enterprises going to the US to start operations, and the US economy is still active.

Industry insiders pointed out that after the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates during the year, as expected by the market, mortgage interest rates will drop further sharply, promoting the rapid growth of the US real estate market, and the growth rate will return to more than 10%.