Even though Weichai Power Co., Ltd.'s (HKG:2338) recent earnings release was robust, the market didn't seem to notice. Our analysis suggests that investors might be missing some promising details.
Examining Cashflow Against Weichai Power's Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
For the year to March 2024, Weichai Power had an accrual ratio of -0.16. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥22b during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of CN¥9.76b. Given that Weichai Power had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of CN¥22b would seem to be a step in the right direction.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Weichai Power's Profit Performance
Happily for shareholders, Weichai Power produced plenty of free cash flow to back up its statutory profit numbers. Based on this observation, we consider it possible that Weichai Power's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! And on top of that, its earnings per share increased by 76% in the last year. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Weichai Power at this point in time. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Weichai Power you should know about.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Weichai Power's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.