The quarterly results for Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$9.3b were what the analysts expected, Mondelez International surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$1.04 per share, an impressive 20% above what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mondelez International after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Mondelez International from 19 analysts is for revenues of US$36.9b in 2024. If met, it would imply a modest 2.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 11% to US$3.55. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$37.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.47 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Mondelez International's earnings potential following these results.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$81.49, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Mondelez International analyst has a price target of US$90.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$73.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Mondelez International is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Mondelez International's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 7.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 2.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Mondelez International's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Mondelez International's earnings potential next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mondelez International going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Even so, be aware that Mondelez International is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.