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Is Chongqing Changan Automobile (SZSE:000625) Using Too Much Debt?

Is Chongqing Changan Automobile (SZSE:000625) Using Too Much Debt?

重慶長安汽車(深交所股票代碼:000625)的債務是否過多?
Simply Wall St ·  05/02 22:07

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited (SZSE:000625) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

傳奇基金經理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾經說過:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”因此,當你評估公司的風險時,看來聰明的貨幣知道債務(通常涉及破產)是一個非常重要的因素。與許多其他公司一樣,重慶長安汽車股份有限公司(深交所股票代碼:000625)也使用債務。但是這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務何時危險?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

債務可以爲企業提供幫助,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是新資本還是自由現金流。在最壞的情況下,如果公司無法償還債權人,它可能會破產。但是,更頻繁(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以支撐其資產負債表。當然,許多公司使用債務爲增長提供資金,而不會產生任何負面影響。當我們研究債務水平時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務水平。

What Is Chongqing Changan Automobile's Net Debt?

重慶長安汽車的淨負債是多少?

As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, Chongqing Changan Automobile had CN¥1.21b of debt, up from CN¥1.13b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. But it also has CN¥70.2b in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥69.0b net cash.

如下所示,截至2024年3月底,重慶長安汽車的債務爲12.1億元人民幣,高於去年同期的11.3億元人民幣。點擊圖片了解更多詳情。但它也有702億元人民幣的現金來抵消這一點,這意味着它的淨現金爲690億元人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:000625 Debt to Equity History May 3rd 2024
SZSE: 000625 2024 年 5 月 3 日債務與股本比率的歷史記錄

A Look At Chongqing Changan Automobile's Liabilities

看看重慶長安汽車的負債

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Chongqing Changan Automobile had liabilities of CN¥101.9b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥12.9b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥70.2b in cash and CN¥38.5b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥6.09b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到,重慶長安汽車的負債爲1019億元人民幣,12個月後到期的負債爲129億元人民幣。與此相抵消的是,它有702億加元的現金和38.5億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出60.9億元人民幣。

Since publicly traded Chongqing Changan Automobile shares are worth a very impressive total of CN¥127.7b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Chongqing Changan Automobile also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.

由於公開交易的重慶長安汽車股票總價值高達1277億元人民幣,因此這種負債水平似乎不太可能構成重大威脅。話雖如此,很明顯,我們應該繼續監控其資產負債表,以免情況惡化。儘管重慶長安汽車確實有值得注意的負債,但其現金也多於債務,因此我們非常有信心它可以安全地管理債務。

Importantly, Chongqing Changan Automobile's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 63% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Chongqing Changan Automobile's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

重要的是,重慶長安汽車的息稅前利潤在過去十二個月中下降了驚人的63%。如果這種盈利趨勢繼續下去,那麼償還債務就像放貓坐過山車一樣容易。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,未來的收益將決定重慶長安汽車未來保持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. Chongqing Changan Automobile may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Happily for any shareholders, Chongqing Changan Automobile actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.

但是我們最終的考慮因素也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。重慶長安汽車的資產負債表上可能有淨現金,但研究該業務將其息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流的效果仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其對債務的需求和管理能力。令所有股東感到高興的是,重慶長安汽車在過去三年中產生的自由現金流實際上超過了息稅前利潤。當Daft Punk音樂會的節拍下降時,這種強勁的現金轉換讓我們和觀衆一樣興奮。

Summing Up

總結

While it is always sensible to look at a company's total liabilities, it is very reassuring that Chongqing Changan Automobile has CN¥69.0b in net cash. And it impressed us with free cash flow of CN¥19b, being 317% of its EBIT. So we don't have any problem with Chongqing Changan Automobile's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 3 warning signs with Chongqing Changan Automobile , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

儘管查看公司的總負債總是明智的,但令人欣慰的是,重慶長安汽車的淨現金爲690億元人民幣。它以190億元人民幣的自由現金流給我們留下了深刻的印象,佔其息稅前利潤的317%。因此,我們對重慶長安汽車使用債務沒有任何問題。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。我們已經確定了重慶長安汽車的三個警告信號,了解它們應該成爲您投資過程的一部分。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有興趣投資能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增加利潤的企業,請查看這份資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業的免費清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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