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Is Shenergy (SHSE:600642) A Risky Investment?

Is Shenergy (SHSE:600642) A Risky Investment?

Shenergy(上海證券交易所代碼:600642)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  04/30 19:24

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Shenergy Company Limited (SHSE:600642) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

大衛·伊本說得好,他說:“波動性不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免資本的永久損失。”因此,當你評估公司的風險時,看來聰明的貨幣知道債務(通常涉及破產)是一個非常重要的因素。我們注意到,申能源有限公司(上海證券交易所股票代碼:600642)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但真正的問題是這筆債務是否使公司面臨風險。

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務會帶來風險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但是如果企業無法償還貸款,那麼債務就任其擺佈。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是,它必須以低廉的價格籌集新的股本,從而永久稀釋股東。當然,債務的好處在於它通常代表廉價資本,尤其是當它以高回報率進行再投資的能力取代公司的稀釋時。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務水平。

What Is Shenergy's Net Debt?

Shenergy 的淨負債是多少?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Shenergy had CN¥35.0b in debt in March 2024; about the same as the year before. However, it also had CN¥13.1b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥21.9b.

您可以點擊下圖查看更多詳情,該圖表顯示,Shenergy在2024年3月的債務爲350億元人民幣;與前一年大致相同。但是,它也有131億加元的現金,因此其淨負債爲219億元人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:600642 Debt to Equity History April 30th 2024
SHSE: 600642 2024 年 4 月 30 日債務與股權比率的歷史記錄

A Look At Shenergy's Liabilities

看看 Shenergy 的負債

According to the last reported balance sheet, Shenergy had liabilities of CN¥23.4b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥28.9b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥13.1b as well as receivables valued at CN¥8.95b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥30.2b.

根據上次報告的資產負債表,Shenergy的負債爲234億元人民幣,12個月後到期的負債爲289億元人民幣。除這些債務外,它有131億元人民幣的現金以及價值89.5億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額302億元人民幣。

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of CN¥41.6b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

相對於其416億元人民幣的市值,這是一座巨大的槓桿率。如果其貸款人要求其支撐資產負債表,股東可能會面臨嚴重的稀釋。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

我們通過以下方法來衡量公司的債務負擔與其盈利能力:將其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),並計算其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)支付利息支出(利息保障)的難易程度。因此,我們將債務與收益的關係考慮在內,包括和不包括折舊和攤銷費用。

Shenergy has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.7, which signals significant debt, but is still pretty reasonable for most types of business. However, its interest coverage of 1k is very high, suggesting that the interest expense on the debt is currently quite low. Notably, Shenergy's EBIT launched higher than Elon Musk, gaining a whopping 134% on last year. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Shenergy can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Shenergy的債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率爲2.7,這表明負債累累,但對於大多數類型的企業來說仍然相當合理。但是,其1k的利息覆蓋率非常高,這表明債務的利息支出目前相當低。值得注意的是,Shenergy的息稅前利潤高於埃隆·馬斯克,比去年增長了134%。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但最終,該業務未來的盈利能力將決定Shenergy能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Shenergy produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 60% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

但是我們最終的考慮因素也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。因此,合乎邏輯的步驟是研究息稅前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在過去三年中,Shenergy產生了穩健的自由現金流,相當於其息稅前利潤的60%,與我們的預期差不多。這種冷硬現金意味着它可以在需要時減少債務。

Our View

我們的觀點

Shenergy's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its level of total liabilities. Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that Shenergy can handle its debt fairly comfortably. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Shenergy (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.

Shenergy的利息保障表明,它可以像克里斯蒂亞諾·羅納爾多在對陣14歲以下的守門員的比賽中進球一樣輕鬆地處理債務。但是,更悲觀的是,我們對其總負債水平有點擔憂。綜合上述所有因素,令我們震驚的是,Shenergy能夠相當輕鬆地處理債務。從好的方面來看,這種槓桿作用可以提高股東的回報,但潛在的缺點是損失風險更大,因此值得關注資產負債表。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。例如,我們已經確定了兩個Shenergy的警告信號(其中一個有點令人擔憂),你應該注意。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

畢竟,如果你對一家資產負債表堅如磐石的快速成長型公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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