Unsurprisingly, Grace Wine Holdings Limited's (HKG:8146) stock price was strong on the back of its healthy earnings report. However, we think that shareholders may be missing some concerning details in the numbers.
Zooming In On Grace Wine Holdings' Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
For the year to December 2023, Grace Wine Holdings had an accrual ratio of 0.20. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥40m despite its profit of CN¥10.2m, mentioned above. We also note that Grace Wine Holdings' free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥40m.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Grace Wine Holdings.
Our Take On Grace Wine Holdings' Profit Performance
Grace Wine Holdings' accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Because of this, we think that it may be that Grace Wine Holdings' statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. The good news is that it earned a profit in the last twelve months, despite its previous loss. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Grace Wine Holdings (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Grace Wine Holdings' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.