Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd (SZSE:300999) missed earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of CN¥252b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.53, falling short by 5.8% and 8.8% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings from seven analysts is for revenues of CN¥283.1b in 2024. If met, it would imply a decent 13% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 33% to CN¥0.70. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥290.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.89 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 17% to CN¥40.47. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings at CN¥41.40 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥40.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings'historical trends, as the 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 11% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 13% annually. So although Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings' future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.