Bitcoin Crash Looming? BitMEX's Arthur Hayes Predicts Rug Pull Dropping Price By 40%
Bitcoin Crash Looming? BitMEX's Arthur Hayes Predicts Rug Pull Dropping Price By 40%
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes projected a massive potential downside for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) in the upcoming months. He anticipated a significant correction of 20% to 30% by early March 2024.
BitMEX創始人亞瑟·海斯預計，在未來幾個月中，比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）將面臨巨大的潛在下行空間。他預計，到2024年3月初，將出現20％至30％的重大修正。
Hayes' analysis, which is based on his assessment of various economic indicators and market trends, pointed to several key factors that could influence Bitcoin's trajectory.
海斯的分析基於他對各種經濟指標和市場趨勢的評估，指出了可能影響比特幣走勢的幾個關鍵因素。
He estimated the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) balance, which is the liquidity outlet for banks, could decline to $200 billion in early March. A declining Reverse Repo balance is seen as a warning sign of potential stress in short-term dollar funding markets.
他估計，作爲銀行流動性渠道的反向回購計劃（RRP）餘額可能在3月初降至2000億美元。反向回購餘額下降被視爲短期美元融資市場潛在壓力的警告信號。
Hayes was concerned that such a scenario arising in March could trigger risk-off behavior and sell-offs in volatile assets such as Bitcoin.
海耶斯擔心，3月份出現的這種情況可能會引發比特幣等波動性資產的避險行爲和拋售。
Furthermore, the expiration of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) could lead to liquidity issues for banks, potentially further straining the financial markets.
此外，銀行定期融資計劃（BTFP）的到期可能會導致銀行的流動性問題，從而可能進一步加劇金融市場的壓力。
Adding to that, the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate decision in March looms large, with rate cuts likely moving markets.
除此之外，美聯儲在3月份的預期利率決定隱約可見，降息可能會推動市場。
Hayes speculated the impact of U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs could drive substantial fiat investment into these ETFs, propelling Bitcoin's price above $60,000 in the process.
海耶斯推測，在美國上市的現貨比特幣ETF的影響可能會推動對這些ETF的大量法定投資，在此過程中推動比特幣的價格超過60,000美元。
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He still warned of a possible severe correction, a "dollar liquidity rug pull," that could lead to a 30% to 40% drop in Bitcoin's value.
他仍然警告說，可能會出現嚴重的調整，即 “美元流動性拉動”，這可能導致比特幣價值下跌30％至40％。
In response to these predictions, Hayes planned to adjust his trading strategy accordingly.
針對這些預測，海耶斯計劃相應地調整其交易策略。
In the short run, he intended to short the crypto market using Bitcoin puts. Following the anticipated turbulent period in March, Hayes planned to resume selling U.S. Treasury bills and acquire more Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,
在短期內，他打算使用比特幣看跌期權做空加密市場。在三月份經歷了預期的動盪時期之後，海耶斯計劃恢復出售美國國庫券並收購更多的比特幣和其他加密貨幣，
The BitMEX founder's analysis highlighted the short-term potential for significant market corrections influenced by broader economic policies and liquidity factors.
這位 BitMEX 創始人的分析強調了受更廣泛經濟政策和流動性因素影響的短期市場可能出現重大調整。
His insights offered valuable considerations for investors and traders in the cryptocurrency space, as they plan their strategies in a potentially volatile market.
他的見解爲加密貨幣領域的投資者和交易者提供了寶貴的考慮因素，因爲他們在潛在動盪的市場中規劃策略。
Read Next: Bitcoin ETF Hurdles: Cash Redemptions, Hard Forks, Authorized Participant Disclosure Discussions With SEC
繼續閱讀：比特幣ETF障礙：現金兌換、硬分叉、授權參與者與美國證券交易委員會的披露討論
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