The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huaxi Securities released a research report saying that the profits of autonomous car companies are rising, and they are optimistic about intelligence+ going overseas. Intelligent electrification for automobiles has changed dramatically, reshaped the industrial order, and is optimistic about the automobile industry's golden decade. The intelligent singularity has arrived. Attention is being paid to the industrial chain opportunities brought about by the inflection point of intelligence and the export of independent technology, while at the same time focusing on the new power of marginal improvement in the industrial chain.
This month's core portfolio: Ideal Auto - W (02015), Changan Automobile (000625.SZ), Bethel (603596.SH), Tuopu Group (601689.SH), Xinquan Co., Ltd. (146), Xusheng Group (), Dual Ring Drive (002472.SZ), Desai Seaway (002920.SZ), Jingwei Hengrun (Wei), Jifeng Co., Ltd. (), BYD (002594.SZ), Chunfeng Power (603129) 603179.SH 603305.SH 688326.SH 603997.SH .SH)
This week's data: 423,000 passenger cars were insured in the second week of October +12.9% YoY and +4.8% YoY
Demand for insurance was improving in October. According to Jiaotong Insurance data, from October 2 to October 8, insurance sales in the passenger car market were 404,000 vehicles, +24.0% year on year and -30.1% month on month. Among them, 131,000 new energy passenger vehicles were insured, +83.7% year on year, -30.4% month on month, and the penetration rate reached 32.3%.
Opinion of the week: Profitability of autonomous car companies is rising, optimistic about intelligence+going overseas
Intelligent electrification for automobiles has changed dramatically, reshaped the industrial order, and is optimistic about the automobile industry's golden decade. This month's core portfolio is Ideal Auto - W, Changan Auto, Bethel, Tuopu Group, Xinquan Co., Ltd., Xusheng Group, Shuanghuan Drive, Desai Seaway, Jingwei Hengrun, Jifeng Co., Ltd., BYD, and Chunfeng Power.
The intelligent singularity has arrived. Attention is being paid to the industrial chain opportunities brought about by the inflection point of intelligence and the export of independent technology, while at the same time focusing on the new power of marginal improvement in the industrial chain.
Due to scale effects, overseas travel, and combined cost reductions, profit from independent new energy sources bucked the trend and improved.BYD's net profit for 2023Q3 was 95.5 to 11.5 billion yuan. Based on central value calculation, +84.5% year on year, +54.5% month on month, net profit from bicycle return was 11,700 yuan, up 2,909 yuan from month to month. We determined that it mainly benefited from scale effects, reduced battery costs, and increased profits overseas. Zero Run 2023Q3 achieved total revenue of 5.66 billion yuan, +31.9% year on year, +29.4% month on month. Gross margin changed to 1.2%, and performance exceeded expectations. Driven by scale effects, overseas trips, and reduced raw material costs, the profits of autonomous car companies bucked the trend and improved. Recently, the overseas layout of independent brands has accelerated. Three all-electric models, BYD BYDATTO3, Dolphin, and Seal, were officially unveiled in Hungary, and Changan Motor has confirmed that it will build a new energy vehicle factory in Thailand (with a design capacity of 100,000 vehicles in the first phase) and that Great Wall Motor will produce in the Uzbek market (planned production capacity of 35,000 vehicles). It is expected that going overseas independently will promote an increase in the total number of passenger cars and further increase the profits of independent car companies.
Urban NOA was launched, and intelligent driving was on the eve of the explosion of mass production.According to Fast Technology and Sina News, the Xinjie M7 and Xiaopeng G9 Smart Driving Max versions account for about 60%/80% of their respective total orders. All new Zhiji LS6 cars are equipped with LiDAR and OriN chips as standard. Benefiting from technological progress and the expansion of urban application scenarios, smart driving has gradually become an important factor for consumers to consider when buying cars. We believe that on the supply side, car companies have taken intelligent driving as their core driving point to create differentiated selling points. From this year to next year, we will usher in an era of “smart driving with standard smart driving”; on the demand side, smart driving has now effectively influenced car purchase decisions. In the future, leading car companies that can identify differentiated selling points and leading technology will differentiate themselves from the end of this year to the beginning of next year and maintain their leading edge for more than 2 years.
Passenger cars: growth, cyclical resonance, optimistic about the rise of high-quality autonomous car companies.
1) High-quality supply is accelerating, and the peak season can be expected:Demand is strong during the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” car buying season. Driven by high-quality supplies such as Galaxy L6, Wenjie M7, Xiaopeng G9, Qiyuan A07, and Zhiji LS6, superimposed on last year's low base, the year-on-year growth rate is expected to increase;
2) Intelligent acceleration, focusing on the progress of T and various car companies+the introduction of L3 standards:Intelligent driving ability is expected to become an important factor in car companies' competition. On the sales side, the accelerated implementation of NOA in Huawei, Xiaopeng, Ideal, and Weilai City is expected to promote smart driving as an important factor affecting car purchases, leading to an increase in the purchase rate of smart driving models and boosting sales; on the valuation side, Tesla's smart driving software payment model is running in North America. The Dojo supercomputer will accelerate the development of robots and smart driving, drive valuation restructuring, and Xiaopeng and the public cooperate to collect technical service fees. It is expected to change the profit model of car companies and raise the valuation center. We are optimistic about high-quality independent car companies with leading intelligent layouts and improving product cycles and brand cycles.We recommend ideal cars H, Changan, BYD, Geely H, and Great Wall Motor, and benefit from the target Xiaopeng Motors H, Celis, and NIO.
Components:Mid-term growth continues to strengthen, and we are optimistic about the growth of the new power industry chain+smart electric power. In the short term, intelligence is the strongest main line in the second half of the year. The 23 years of smart driving will be an important year for the city's NOA. Intelligent driving components such as domain controllers and smart driving sensors are expected to accelerate penetration. At the same time, focus on the Huawei industry chain: Huawei Chery's new car, the intelligent world, S7 is expected to be launched in November 2023, and the Questionnaire M9 is expected to be launched by the end of the year. Increments can be expected. We are firmly optimistic about the new power industry chain+smart electric increment. Recommended:
1. New power industrial chain:Preferably select T-Chain - Tuopu Group, Xinquan Group, Shuanghuan Drive, and Icodi, to benefit from the target Daimei shares; the Huawei industry chain - Xingyu Co., Ltd., Shangsheng Electronics, Shanghai Yanpu, Guangfeng Technology, and Wencan shares, to benefit from the target Ruihu Mold and Huguang Co., Ltd.;
2. Intelligent core main line:Select the vehicle that has benefited the most - Ideal Auto H, which has benefited from the target Xiaopeng Motor H and Celis; intelligent driving - Bethel, Desai Seaway, Jingwei Hengrun-W, Keboda+ smart cockpit - Shangsheng Electronics, Guangfeng Technology, and Jifeng Co., Ltd.
Heavy trucks:The darkest hour has passed, and a new boom cycle has begun. According to the first commercial vehicle data, in September 2023, the heavy truck market sold about 86,000 vehicles (billing caliber, including exports and new energy), +25% month-on-month and +66% year-on-year, with a net added value of about 17,000 vehicles. Demand for heavy logistics trucks remains steady, and sales of heavy engineering trucks are expected to contribute to flexibility; national six emission standards have gradually entered the implementation stage, and leading domestic suppliers in all sectors are expected to benefit from emission upgrades. Weichai Power, Sinotruk, Longsheng Technology, and Yinlun shares, which benefit the relevant targets.
MOTORCYCLES:The supply is continuously driven, and high-displacement faucets are preferred. According to data from the China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce, domestic sales of 250cc+ medium and large displacement motorcycles were 50,200 units in September 2023, -23.9% year on year and +5.5% month on month. A total of 408,600 vehicles were sold from January to September 2023, -10.5% year-on-year. The rapid launch of new models and brands by leading car companies on the supply end provides the core driving force for the development of the industry, and the market is rapidly expanding. We expect the industry to grow by 30-40% in 2023, and continue to recommend medium and large motorcycle racing tracks. Referring to the history of domestic automobile development and the competitive pattern of the overseas motorcycle market, independent brands are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries of the rise in demand for medium- and high-displacement motorcycles. We recommend Chunfeng Power, Qianjiang Motorcycle, and Longxin GM, which benefits related targets.
This week's market: overall better than the market
The automotive sector outperformed the market this week. The A-share auto sector fell 2.42% this week (weighted average of market value in circulation, same below), ranked 7th in the Shenwanzi industry, and performed better than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (down 3.70%). In the segment, passenger cars rose by 0.71%; buses, auto parts, other transportation equipment, trucks, and auto services fell 0.98%, 3.91%, 5.48%, 6.43%, and 7.71%, respectively.