GLONGHUI August 15丨Today, securities and banks are rising.Penghua Fund Securities ETF's leading ETF, Wells Fargo Fund Bank's leading ETF, Huitianfu Fund banking ETF, Cathay Pacific Fund financial ETF, and E-Fangda Securities Insurance ETF are popular.
According to the news, today, the central bank's open market launched a 401 billion yuan 1-year MLF and a 204 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation. The winning bid interest rates were 2.5% and 1.80% respectively, compared to 2.65% and 1.90% respectively last time. Since 400 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases expire today, net investment of 19.9 billion yuan was achieved on the same day.
Fangzheng Securities believes that at a time when the downward pressure on the economy is still strong, the central bank chose to cut interest rates to drive demand. At the same time, in the future, the central bank will also push demand recovery by downgrading and lowering interest on existing mortgages, and inject liquidity into enterprises through downgrades to mitigate the implementation risks caused by exhaustion of liquidity and avoid financial risks. Looking at market capital in the short term, there is no shortage of interbank liquidity, but what is lacking is confidence. Reducing corporate financing costs and consumer consumption costs is the key to stimulating investment and consumption and achieving the goal of steady growth. Interest rate cuts have already been implemented, downgrades are imperative. Domestic capital interest rates will continue to fall, and medium- to long-term capital interest rates are expected to continue to decline.
The impact of the central bank's interest rate cut on the short-term trend of the A-share market is limited. After all, what the current market lacks is not interest rate issues and liquidity issues, but market confidence issues. Interest rate cuts are an external driving force for the A-share market, not endogenous motivation, but interest rate cuts are conducive to reducing capital costs, a steady recovery of the economy, and are beneficial to A-shares in the medium to long term.
For the A-share structure, interest rate cuts are beneficial to procyclical industries and insurance and brokerage firms that are close to interest rates. For commercial banks, interest spreads are expected to decrease, and it remains to be seen whether they can achieve quantitative price compensation. For small to medium capitalization stocks and technology growth stocks, they have low correlation with interest rates, but they have a strong correlation with market liquidity. Future downgrades are beneficial to high-tech growth stocks. This is the reason why after the central bank lowered MLF interest rates, the hot spots on the same day changed again.
The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly stated that the MLF interest rate was lowered by 15 basis points and the 7-day reverse repo interest rate was lowered by 10 basis points, indicating that there is more room for long-term interest rates to decline. It is expected that LPR will also drop by an equal amount of 15 basis points. At the same time, MLF's operating volume is overhedged, increasing the 7-day reverse repurchase operation volume, which helps increase liquidity supply and hedge the impact of tax periods and government bond issuance.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, said that the July financial data showed weak financing demand in the real economy and increased pressure to promote steady growth in domestic demand, which was the reason for the current interest rate cut, which exceeded market expectations. It emphasizes that this interest rate cut can effectively reduce financing costs in the real economy to stimulate consumption and investment; at the same time, the MLF interest rate reduction will help drive a simultaneous reduction in LPR, help lower corporate and mortgage interest rates, and help promote the recovery of real estate.