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Larry Summers Says Soft Landing 'Looks More Possible': Unemployment vs. Inflation

Larry Summers Says Soft Landing 'Looks More Possible': Unemployment vs. Inflation

拉里·薩默斯說軟著陸「看起來更可能」:失業與通貨膨脹
Benzinga Real-time News ·  2023/02/05 19:24

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers say the Fed can pull off a soft landing, but warns that it would be a "big mistake" to think that the economy is "out of the woods".

前財政部長 劳伦斯·萨默斯 說美聯儲可以取消軟著陸,但警告說,認為經濟「走出樹林」將是一個「大錯誤」。

In an interview on CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS" Summers said it "looks more possible that we'll have a soft landing than it did a few months ago."

在有關 CNN 的採訪中」扎卡里亚 GPS」薩默斯說,「看起來比幾個月前我們更有可能進行軟著陸。」

While cautioning about the inflation indicators, Summers said, "They're still unimaginably high from the perspective of two or three years ago, and that getting the rest of the way back to target inflation may still prove to be quite difficult,"

在警告通脹指標的同時,薩默斯表示:「從兩三年前的角度來看,它們仍然難以想像的高度,並且將剩下的方式恢復到目標通貨膨脹可能仍然很困難,」

On Friday, the Labor Department reported blowout jobs market numbers for January. The U.S. added 517,000 jobs last month, well above average economist estimates of 187,000 jobs.

上週五,勞工部報告了 1 月份的井噴工作市場數字。美國上個月增加了 517,000 個就業機會,遠高於經濟學家對 187,000 個就業機會的平均水平。

The unemployment rate was 3.4%, below economist estimates of 3.6%. And the Wages were up 4.4% year-over-year and increased 0.3% from December.

失業率為 3.4%,低於經濟學家估計的 3.6%。工資較去年同期上升 4.4%,較 12 月增加 0.3%。

The Fed hiked interest rates by 25 basis points last week, bringing its target fed funds rate up to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

美聯儲上周加息 25 個基點,使其目標聯儲基金利率達到 4.5% 至 4.75%。

Summer's was asked if triggering a recession was worth it to bring down inflation, and if a 3 to 3.5% inflation rate could become the norm, Summers said it comes down to a trade-off between short-term reductions in unemployment and permanent changes in inflation.

夏季被問及引發衰退是否值得推動通貨膨脹,如果 3 到 3.5% 的通脹率可能成為常態,薩默斯表示,這歸結為失業率短期減少和通貨膨脹永久性變化之間的權衡。

The benefit we can get from pushing unemployment low is, on almost all economic theories, likely not to be a permanent one," Summers said. "But if we push inflation up and those inflation expectations become entrenched, we're going to live with that inflation for a long time."

根據幾乎所有的經濟理論,我們可以從將失業率推低中獲得的好處是,可能不是永久性的理論,」薩默斯說。但是,如果我們推動通貨膨脹,並且這些通脹預期變得根深蒂固,我們將長期忍受這種通貨膨脹。」

Last month, he told Bloomberg that it's a good sign inflation is starting to cool down, even as the job market remains resilient.

上個月,他告訴彭博社,即使就業市場仍然具有彈性,通貨膨脹也開始降溫是一個很好的跡象。

I'm still cautious, but with a little more hope than before. Soft landings are the triumph of hope over experience, but sometimes hope does triumph over experience," Summers said.

我仍然很謹慎,但比以前多一點希望。軟著陸是希望勝過經驗的勝利,但有時候希望確實勝過經驗,」薩默斯說。

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