Microsoft Looks to Have Reached its Inflection Point
Microsoft Looks to Have Reached its Inflection Point
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Prices for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock, combined with the notion that it is among secular tech winners, mean it's a steal at the moment. Simply consider that it's down 22% in 2022, but that it has massive upside of 35% based on target prices — and its attraction is obvious. But without any signal that the tech wreck will relent, or at least spare Microsoft, it's difficult to move on that notion.
價格：微軟(納斯達克：MSFT)股票，再加上它是長期科技贏家的概念，意味着目前它是一筆便宜貨。簡單地考慮一下，它在2022年下跌了22%，但根據目標價格，它有35%的巨大上漲-它的吸引力是顯而易見的。但是，如果沒有任何跡象表明技術災難將會緩和，或者至少會放過微軟，那麼很難繼續推進這一想法。
Strong Signals
強烈信號
The good news is that there are signals the tech wreck is slowing, or at least that the tech wreck is beginning to show a distinction between the winners and the losers. Those signals came in the form of recent comments from Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives. He believes that strong tech firms underpinned by secular drivers have a strong chance of emerging relatively unscathed.
好消息是，有跡象表明，科技股的崩盤正在放緩，或者至少科技崩盤開始顯示出贏家和輸家之間的區別。這些信號來自韋德布什分析師丹尼爾·艾夫斯最近的評論。他認為，由世俗驅動因素支撐的強大科技公司很有可能相對毫髮無損地脱穎而出。
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In other words, he believes that previously noted secular drivers including cloud, cyber security, and the new digital age aren't going anywhere.
換句話説，他認為之前提到的包括雲、網絡安全和新數字時代在內的世俗驅動因素不會去任何地方。
That means that a select few tech names, including Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Salesforce (NASDAQ:CRM), and Microsoft may be reaching an inflection point. Investor capital, which fled every tech name through the first half of 2022, should flood back into the so-called secular winners within tech moving forward.
這意味着一些精選的科技公司，包括蘋果(納斯達克：AAPL), Salesforce(納斯達克：CRM)，而微軟可能正走到一個拐點。在2022年上半年逃離所有科技公司的投資者資本，應該會重新湧入科技行業未來的所謂長期贏家。
Already Underway?
已經在進行了嗎？
There's some indication that this could already be underway based on price charts. On Jun. 13, MSFT stock closed at $242.26, dipping to its lowest point this year. Since then, it has moved above $260.
有一些跡象表明，根據價格圖表，這一趨勢可能已經開始。6月13日，微軟股價收於242.26美元，跌至今年以來的最低點。自那以來，金價已升至260美元上方。
The idea here is that Microsoft will decouple from the overall market downturn. It has tracked overall losses fairly well so far. But the more investors recognize its true strengths, the higher it will go regardless of overall market trends.
這裏的想法是，微軟將與整體市場低迷脱鈎。到目前為止，它對整體虧損的跟蹤相當好。但投資者越是認識到它的真正優勢，無論整體市場趨勢如何，它就會走得越高。
Right now, a lot of that strength lies in perceptions of cloud performance and what the cloud means overall.
目前，這種優勢很大程度上在於人們對雲性能的看法，以及雲在整體上意味着什麼。
If the cloud argument doesn't sway investors, overall performance should. The company recorded $49.4 billion in revenues in the most-recent quarter. A year ago, that figure was less than $42 billion. At that time, many had to wonder how much bigger Microsoft could get. The answer was 18% in a year.
如果雲的説法不能動搖投資者，那麼整體業績應該會動搖。該公司在最近一個季度錄得494億美元的收入。一年前，這一數字還不到420億美元。當時，許多人不得不想知道微軟還能變得更大。答案是一年內增長18%。
Azure
碧藍
As Wedbush's Daniel Ives noted, the cloud is a secular trend that isn't going anywhere. Its importance will remain. The positive news there is that Azure and other services increased 46% as of the firm's April earnings release.
正如韋德布什的丹尼爾·艾夫斯所指出的，雲是一種不會消失的世俗趨勢。它的重要性將繼續存在。積極的消息是，截至公司4月份發佈的財報，Azure和其他服務增長了46%。
Microsoft doesn't break out Azure revenues separately from overall revenue figures, so we can't know exactly. But Azure's massive growth coupled with its firm position as one of the big three means that as long as the cloud drives tech, Microsoft remains a premier name.
微軟沒有將Azure的營收從整體營收數據中分離出來，所以我們不能確切知道。但Azure的巨大增長，加上其作為三大巨頭之一的堅定地位，意味着只要雲驅動技術，微軟就仍然是頭號品牌。
So, Ives' assertion that it still means as much as it did before underpins his belief that Microsoft must remain a secular winner. That's a pretty easy bet to take.
因此，艾夫斯的斷言，它仍然像以前一樣意義重大，這鞏固了他的信念，即微軟必須保持長期的贏家。這是一個相當容易接受的賭注。
On the date of publication, Alex Sirois did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
截至發稿之日，Alex Sirois並未(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。本文表達的觀點是作者的觀點，以InvestorPlace.com為準出版指南.
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