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LIVE MARKETS-Indian summer: CPI, mortgage rates put the heat on

reuters ·  Oct 13, 2021 10:44

* Dow, S&P 500 red; Nasdaq gains

* Financials weakest S&P sector; tech leads gainers

* Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.6%

* Gold up; dollar, crude, bitcoin fall

* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.54%

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INDIAN SUMMER: CPI, MORTGAGE RATES PUT THE HEAT ON (1042 EDT/1442 GMT)

Leaves are falling - and even snow in some parts of the country - but consumer prices and mortgage rates are pushing the mercury higher.

The prices U.S. urban consumers pay for a basket of goods

USCPI=ECI rose by 0.4% in August, an acceleration from the previous month and hotter than the 0.3% consensus.

"We need to bifurcate and see where the inflation is," writes Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors. "It's not a one-size fits all answer."

Fair enough, so let's delve deeper into the Labor Department's consumer price index (CPI) report. A 6.4% drop in air fares - a predictable adjustment following the spikes in early summer - was more than offset by gains in housing, new cars and gasoline, among others.

Core CPI USCPFY=ECI , which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at 4% year-over-year, inline with expectations.

As to whether this report is likely to accelerate or have little effect on the U.S. Federal Reserve's expected timeline for tightening its monetary policy, opinions differ.

"It reassures the Fed because there were no surprises," Pursche adds.

But Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital, isn't quite so sure.

"Inflation is going to be more long-lasting than the Fed expects," Cardillo says. "In my opinion this accelerates the tapering move and we’ll probably get an announcement next month."

Minutes from the central bank's most recent monetary policy meeting could shed light in that direction.

Core CPI, shown along with other major indicators in the graphic below, continue to soar well above the Fed's average annual 2% inflation target:

Separately, demand for home loans eked out a nominal gain last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), despite yet another uptick in rates.

The average 30-year fixed contract rate USMG=ECI grew by 4 basis points to 3.18%, marking the third consecutive weekly gain.

Even so, applications for loans to purchase homes

USMGPI=ECI jumped by 1.5%, a gain that was nearly completely offset by a 0.5% decline in refi demand USMGR=ECI , which constitutes the bulk of the total.

"Mortgage rates reached their highest level since June 2021, but application activity changed little this week," notes Joel Kan, associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting at MBA.

Nancy Vanden Hauten, lead economist at Oxford Economics, believes this data points to resiliency in the housing market and suggests home sales could bounce back in September from August's drop.

"We expect the housing market to continue to be buffeted by the crosscurrents of strong demand, limited supply and high prices," Hauten writes. "While mortgage rates remain relatively low on a historical basis, the recent backup in mortgage rates will take an added toll on homebuying affordability at the margin."

Wall Street appeared to be dancing the same tango it's been doing over the last few sessions - starting strong then steadily running out of gas.

Most recently, all three major U.S. stock indexes were well off their opening highs.

The S&P 500 and the Dow were dragged into negative territory by weak financial stocks .SPSY , while a meager gain in tech

.SPLRCT is helping to keep the Nasdaq modestly green.

(Stephen Culp)

*****

INITIAL U.S. STRENGTH FADES, INDEXES TURN MIXED (1005 EDT/1405 GMT)

After an opening push higher, Wall Street's main indexes have turned mixed. This as investors are digesting a solid rise in monthly consumer prices, and a dip in bond yields. .N

The Dow .DJI and S&P 500 .SPX are now trading down on the day. The Nasdaq .IXIC , although already off its early high, is being boosted by tech stocks .SPLRCT , and is still in positive territory.

Of note, the major indexes, as well as the S&P tech sector, have all fallen three-straight days.

Meanwhile, with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield US10YT=RR back down to the 1.54% area, financials .SPSY are taking the biggest hit among S&P sectors.

Here is where markets stand in early trade:

(Terence Gabriel)

*****

NASDAQ 100 TRIPLE-Qs: GOING WITH THE FLOW (0907 EDT/1307 GMT)

The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ.O , which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index .NDX , is down around 6% from its early September high. In so doing, it has also violated a monthly support line from its March 2020 low.

Meanwhile, one indicator that incorporates both price and volume, the Money Flow index (MFI), continues to track within converging trendlines:

On a monthly basis, and since early 2018, the MFI has been trapped between a resistance line from its 2014 high and a support line from its 2009 low.

After once again topping shy of the resistance line this past August, the MFI appears on track for another test of the support line. Another test of that support line could suggest risk for greater QQQ weakness.

However, if the support line can continue to work its magic, and the MFI can bottom, a significant QQQ low may once again be found.

Conversely, an MFI support line break will end what has been a consistent pattern, and instead suggest potential that QQQ weakness may become a waterfall slide.

(Terence Gabriel)

*****

FOR WEDNESDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0907 EDT/1307 GMT - CLICK HERE:

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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

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