On July 26, CICC issued a research report to maintain Futu Holdings' "Outperform Industry" rating with a target price of US$183.
In its research report, CICC expects that the number of Futu 2021Q2 users will continue to grow strongly, but its Q2 revenue and profits are expected to decline month-on-month, taking into account lower turnover rates and higher customer acquisition costs in the Hong Kong stock market.
However, CICC stressed that considering Futu's comprehensive advantages with time barriers in all aspects such as license qualification, user experience, technology reserve and capital strength, its growth path is clear, the market space is broad, and the pullback provides buying opportunities instead.
Key points of attention:
1) the number of fee-paying households is expected to maintain strong growth.CICC expects Futu Q2 to add about 196000 to 986000 paying users, of which the Singapore market may contribute nearly half of the increase; the rising proportion of foreign users effectively increases the conversion efficiency of customers from registration to gold.
2The turnover rate has fallen, the cost of obtaining customers has increased, and the company's revenue and profit are expected to decline significantly compared with the previous month.1) Q2 Hong Kong stock market ADT-33% to 151.3 billion Hong Kong dollars, US stock trading volume-15%, the company's turnover rate is expected to decline by about 40%; in addition, the composite commission rate is also expected to decline due to promotional activities newly entering the Singapore market. 2) considering the rigidity of employee costs, the high growth in the number of new users, and the increase in the cost per customer brought about by the opening up of new markets and the decline in the market, it is expected that the marketing expenses will increase significantly compared with the previous month, driving the company's Q2 operating profit margin to-17.1ppt to 40.6%.
3) short-term betaAttributes lead to performance fluctuations, long-term high user growth drives cross-cycle growth, and market pullbacks provide buying opportunities.CICC believes that Futu has the comprehensive advantages of time barriers in all aspects such as license qualification, user experience, technology reserve, capital strength, etc., with a clear growth path and broad market space: 1) first of all, through international expansion to link global investors and China's new economic enterprises to achieve rapid growth in the number of users and assets. 2) second, use high frequency to promote low frequency, create an elephant wealth management platform, and strengthen the stickiness and robustness of users' assets, as well as diversified ways of realization; 3) looking forward, the company plans to develop into an all-around account and realize a global account market; it is expected that Futu will further promote one-stop digital financial services such as financial management / payment / banking in the Hong Kong market in the future.
Valuation and recommendations:
CICC estimates that Futu's 2Q21 revenue will be the same as + 137% CPM 26% to HK $1.63 billion, taking into account the impact of the market downturn on the turnover rate and the increase in cost per passenger, and cut its 2021 / 2022 non-GAAP profit by 21% to HK $3.3 billion / 4.6 billion. Futu is currently trading on 43x/31x 2021e/22e PE. Taking into account the profit adjustment, but also taking into account the vast market space of the company, cut the target price by 10% to $183, corresponding to 45x2022e PE and 47% upside space.
Risk:
Market volatility risk
The competition exceeded expectations
Regulatory uncertainty.
富途資訊獲悉,7月26日中金公司發佈研報維持富途控股「跑贏行業」評級,目標價183美元。
中金在研報中預計,富途2021Q2用户數仍將保持強勁增長,但考慮港股市場換手率回落、獲客成本提升,預計其Q2收入及盈利環比下降。
不過中金強調,考慮富途在牌照資質、用户體驗、技術儲備、資本實力等全方面建立的具備時間壁壘的綜合優勢,其成長路徑清晰、市場空間廣闊,回調反而提供買入機會。
關注要點:
1)預計付費用户數仍保持強勁增長。中金預計富途Q2新增付費用户約19.6萬人(環比+25%)至98.6萬人,其中新加坡市場或貢獻近一半增量;持續提升的境外用户佔比有效抬升從註冊到入金的客户轉換效率。
2)換手率回落、獲客成本提升,預計公司收入及盈利環比降幅明顯。1)Q2港股市場ADT環比-33%至1,513億港幣、美股交易量環比-15%,預計公司換手率環比降幅約4成;此外,由於新進新加坡市場的促銷活動,預計綜合佣金率亦有所下滑。2)考慮員工成本剛性,新增用户數的高增長以及開拓新市場+市場回落帶來的單客成本上升,預計營銷費用環比提升明顯,帶動公司Q2經營利潤率環比-17.1ppt至40.6%。
3)短期beta屬性引致業績波動,長期用户高增長驅動跨週期成長,市場回調提供買入機會。中金認為,富途在牌照資質、用户體驗、技術儲備、資本實力等全方面建立具備時間壁壘的綜合優勢,成長路徑清晰、市場空間廣闊:1)首先,通過國際化擴張鏈接全球投資者與中國新經濟企業,實現用户數和資產的快速增長;2)其次,以高頻促低頻、打造大象財富理財平台,加強用户資產粘性和穩健性、多元化變現方式;3)往前看,公司計劃將向全能賬户發展,實現一個賬户全球市場;預計富途未來在香港市場有望進一步推進理財/支付/銀行等一站式數字金融服務。
估值與建議:
中金預計,富途2Q21收入同、環比+137%/-26%至16.3億港幣,考慮市場回落對換手率的影響及單客成本上升,下調2021/2022年non-GAAP盈利21%/24%至33億/46億港幣。富途當前交易於43x/31x 2021e/22e P/E。考慮盈利調整幅度、但同時考慮到公司市場空間廣闊,下調目標價10%至183美元,對應45x2022e P/E及47%上行空間。
風險:
市場波動風險;
競爭超預期;
監管不確定性。