The 2021 Berkshire AGM | Meeting notes

2021年伯克希尔年度股东大会|会议记录

Trending 05/01/2021 19:24 ET  Moomoo News

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Hi moomooers!

Welcome to the 2021 Berkshire AGM live updates by moomoo.

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1:30 pm ET meeting starts

Participants: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Ajit Jain, and Greg Abel

Warren Buffett begins the meeting with Charlie Munger by his side, along with a box of peanut brittle and some Coca-Cola products.

He mentions that they are in LA because they all wanted to do this with Charlie Munger.

Buffett says he will introduce the three chairman with him and after that, he will be discussing Berkshire's earnings. Then he will have some "lessons" to show the record number of new investors that have just entered the market.

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Buffett: Don't look at Berkshire in a daily way, over time Berkshire would show a capital gain.

"The economy went off a cliff in March. It was resurrected in an extraordinarily effective way by Federal Reserve action and later on the fiscal front by Congress," Buffett said in opening remarks at Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting."

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Here is a list of the 20 largest companies by market cap in 1989.

None of the top 20 companies on the list 30 years ago has made it on the list 30 years later.

It's a reminder of what extraordinary things could happen.

"It tells you that capitalism has worked incredibly well, especially for the capitalists ... The world can change in very, very dramatic ways," Buffett said, adding that the best way to invest is via index funds.

Buffett: There's a lot more to investing than picking a budding industry

Buffett put up a slide of all the auto companies from years ago that started with the letter "M;" however, the list was so long it didn’t fit on one slide. The "Oracle of Omaha" had to narrow the list to automobile manufacturers that started with "Ma" to fit the names on one page.

Buffett said there were about 2,000 companies that entered the auto business in the 1900′s because investors and entrepreneurs expected the industry to have an amazing future. In 2009, there were three automakers left and two went bankrupt, said Buffett.

Q&A section

Participants: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Ajit Jain, and Greg Abel

Buffett still doesn't want to own airlines

"An industry that was really selling for less than $100 billion lost a significant amount of money, they lost prospective earnings power...international travel’s not come back...I do not consider it a great moment in Berkshire’s history but also we’ve got more net worth than any company in the United States...I think the airline business has done better because we sold and I wish them well but I still wouldn’t want to buy the airline business."

Buffett: I recommend the S&P 500 index fund ... I've never recommended Berkshire to anybody

"On my death, there's a fund for my then-widow, and 90% will go into an S&P 500 index fund."

"I do not think the average person can pick stocks, we happen to have a large group of people that didn't pick stocks but they picked Charlie and me to manage money for them 50, 60 years ago. So we have a very unusual group of shareholders I think who look at Berkshire as a lifetime savings vehicle and one that they don’t have to think about and one that they'll, you know, they don't look at it again for 10 to 20 years."

Buffett says he has no issue owning Chevron, other fossil fuel companies

"People who are on the extreme of both sides are a little nuts. I would hate to have all hydrocarbons banned in three years. It wouldn’t work. And on the other hand, what's happening will be adapted to overtime."

"There's something about every business that, if you knew it, you wouldn't like ... if you expect perfection in your spouse or in your friends or in companies, you're not going to find it."

Buffett and Munger never had an argument over the past 62 years

"Warren and I don’t have to agree on every damn little thing we do. We get along pretty well," the 97-year-old Munger said.

"We have never had an argument in 62 years. Not that we agree on everything but we’ve never gotten mad at each other," Buffett said.

Buffett said selling some Apple stock last year was ‘probably a mistake’

"We got a chance to buy it and I sold some stock last year...that was probably a mistake," said Buffett.

"The part it plays in their lives is huge," he said. "A car costs $35,000 and I’m sure with some people if you asked them whether they wanted to give up, had to give up, their Apple, they’d give up their car."

Buffett says of SPACs are similar to a 'gambling-type market'

"The SPACs generally have to spend their money in two years, as I understand it. If you have to buy a business in two years, you put a gun to my head and said you've got to buy a business in two years, I'd buy one but it wouldn't be much of one," Buffett.

"If you're running money from somebody else and you get a fee and you get the upside and you don't have the downside, you're going to buy something," he added. "And frankly we're not competitive with that."

"It's an exaggerated version of what we've seen in kind of a gambling-type market," he added.

"We’re not going to have much luck on acquisitions while this sort of a period continues."

Munger says unchecked federal spending will ‘end in disaster’

"The Modern Monetary Theorists are more confident than they ought to be, too. I don’t think any of us know what’s going to happen with this stuff," Munger said. "I do think there’s a good chance that this extreme conduct is more feasible than everybody thought. But I do know that if you just keep doing it without any limit it will end in disaster."

"Bernie Sanders has basically won": Munger

"I think one consequence of this present situation is, Bernie Sanders has basically won," Munger says. "Because with everything boomed out so high and interest rates so low, what's going to happen is, the millennial generation is going to have a hell of a time getting rich compared to our generation ... He did it by accident, but he won."

"The people who are criticizing it are bonkers," Munger says of those condemning stock buybacks

"You're repurchasing stock. Just a bullet higher, it's deeply immoral," Munger said. "But if you're repurchasing stock because it's a fair thing to do in the interest of your existing shareholders, it's a highly moral act and the people who are criticizing it are bonkers."

Bitcoin is "contrary to the interest of civilization": Munger

Warren Buffett declined to directly offer an opinion in response to a question on bitcoin.

Munger, however, issued a more direct attack.

"Those who know me well are just waving the red flag at the bull. Of course, I hate the bitcoin success," he said. "And I don’t welcome a currency that’s so useful kidnappers and extortionists and so forth. Nor do I like shoveling out a few extra billions and billions and billions of dollars to somebody who just invented a new financial product out of thin air. So I think I should say modestly that the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interest of civilization."

"We're seeing substantial inflation," Buffett says

"We're seeing substantial inflation. We're raising prices, people are raising prices to us. And it's being accepted," Buffett said. "We really do a lot of housing. The costs are just up, up, up. Steel costs. You know, just every day they're going up."

"It's an economy – really, it's red hot. And we weren't expecting it," he added.

What’s the biggest lesson you’ve learned during the past year?

"My biggest lesson has been to listen more to Charlie," Buffett says.
"We're in sort of uncharted territory," Munger says.
"We enjoy, in a crazy way, actually seeing what happens," Buffett adds.

Shareholder meeting ends, Buffett looks forward to 2022 event in Omaha

"I really hope, and I think the odds are very, very good, that we get to hold this next year in Omaha. I hope that we get a record turnout of Berkshire shareholders, and we really look forward to meeting you in Omaha."

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嗨,流浪汉!

欢迎收看由Moomoo主持的2021年伯克希尔年度股东大会现场更新。

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美国东部时间下午1:30会议开始

参与者:沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、阿吉特·贾恩和格雷格·阿贝尔

沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)的陪同下开始了会议,他带着一盒花生糖和一些可口可乐产品。

他提到,他们之所以在洛杉矶,是因为他们都想和查理·芒格一起做这件事。

巴菲特说,他将向他介绍这三位董事长,之后,他将讨论伯克希尔的收益。然后他将上一些“课”,向大家展示刚刚入市的新投资者的创纪录数量。

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巴菲特:不要每天都看伯克希尔,随着时间的推移,伯克希尔会出现资本收益。

巴菲特在伯克希尔的年度股东大会上致开幕词时表示:“经济在3月跌落悬崖。美联储的行动以非常有效的方式重振了经济,后来国会又在财政战线上重振了经济。”

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以下是1989年市值最大的20家公司的名单。

30年前上榜的前20家公司中,没有一家在30年后上榜。

它提醒人们,可能会发生什么非同寻常的事情。

巴菲特说:“它告诉你,资本主义运行得非常好,特别是对资本家来说……世界可能会以非常、非常戏剧性的方式发生变化。”他补充说,最好的投资方式是通过指数基金。

巴菲特:投资不仅仅是选择一个新兴行业

巴菲特展示了一张几年前所有汽车公司的幻灯片,这些公司都是以字母“M”开头的;然而,这份名单太长了,一张幻灯片都容不下。这位“奥马哈先知”不得不将名单缩小到以“Ma”开头的汽车制造商,以便将名字放在一页上。

巴菲特说,20世纪大约有2000家公司进入汽车业,因为投资者和企业家预计汽车业会有一个令人惊叹的未来。巴菲特说,2009年,只剩下三家汽车制造商,两家破产。

问答部分

参与者:沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、阿吉特·贾恩和格雷格·阿贝尔

巴菲特仍然不想拥有航空公司

“一个真正售价不到1000亿美元的行业损失惨重,他们失去了预期的盈利能力……国际旅行不会再回来了……我不认为这是伯克希尔历史上的伟大时刻,但我们的净值也超过了美国任何一家公司……我认为航空公司业务做得更好,因为我们出售了,我希望他们一切顺利,但我仍然不想收购航空公司业务。”

巴菲特:我推荐标准普尔500指数基金……我从未向任何人推荐过伯克希尔

“在我去世时,有一只基金是为我当时的遗孀设立的,其中90%将投入标准普尔500指数基金。”

“我认为普通人不会选股票,我们碰巧有一大群人没有选股票,但他们在五六十年前选择了查理和我来为他们管理资金。所以我们有一群非常不同寻常的股东,我认为他们把伯克希尔视为毕生的储蓄工具,他们不需要考虑,你知道,他们在10到20年内都不会再关注伯克希尔。”

巴菲特说,他对拥有雪佛龙和其他化石燃料公司没有问题

“两个极端的人都有点疯狂。我讨厌在三年内禁止所有碳氢化合物。这是行不通的。另一方面,现在发生的事情会适应加班。”

“每个企业都有一些东西,如果你知道的话,你不会喜欢的……如果你希望你的配偶、朋友或公司做到完美,你就找不到了。”

在过去的62年里,巴菲特和芒格从未发生过争执。

97岁的芒格说:“沃伦和我不必在我们做的每一件该死的小事上都意见一致。我们相处得很好。”

巴菲特说:“我们62年来从未发生过争执。不是说我们在所有问题上都意见一致,而是我们从未对彼此发火。”

巴菲特说,去年卖出一些苹果股票“可能是个错误”

巴菲特说:“我们有机会买下它,去年我卖出了一些股票……这可能是个错误。”

“它在他们的生活中扮演着巨大的角色,”他说。“一辆车的价格是3.5万美元,我敢肯定,对于一些人来说,如果你问他们是否想放弃,不得不放弃,他们的苹果,他们会放弃他们的车。”

巴菲特说SPAC类似于一个“赌博型市场”

巴菲特说:“据我所知,SPAC通常必须在两年内花掉他们的钱。如果你必须在两年内收购一家企业,你就拿枪指着我的头,说你必须在两年内收购一家企业,我会买一家,但也不会有太多。”

他补充说:“如果你从别人那里拿到钱,你得到了费用,你得到了好处,而你没有坏处,你就会买一些东西。”“坦率地说,我们在这方面没有竞争力。”

“这是我们在一种赌博型市场中看到的夸张版本,”他补充道。

“在这样的时期继续下去,我们在收购方面不会有太大的运气。”

芒格说,不加控制的联邦支出将“以灾难告终”

芒格说:“现代货币理论家也比他们应有的更有信心。我认为我们中没有人知道这些东西会发生什么。”“我确实认为,这种极端行为很有可能比所有人想象的更可行。但我知道,如果你继续这样做,没有任何限制,它将以灾难告终。”

“伯尼·桑德斯基本上赢了”:芒格

芒格说:“我认为目前这种情况的一个后果是,伯尼·桑德斯基本上赢了。”“因为所有的东西都这么高,利率这么低,接下来会发生的是,与我们这一代人相比,千禧一代的致富时期将是地狱……他这么做是偶然的,但他赢了。”

芒格在谈到那些谴责股票回购的人时说:“批评它的人都是疯子。”

芒格说:“你在回购股票。只要再高一点,就是非常不道德的。”“但如果你因为符合现有股东的利益而回购股票,这是一种高度道德的行为,批评它的人都疯了。”

比特币“与文明的利益背道而驰”:芒格

沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在回答有关比特币的问题时拒绝直接发表意见。

然而,芒格发出了更直接的攻击。

他说:“那些了解我的人只是在向公牛挥舞红旗。当然,我讨厌比特币的成功。”“我不欢迎一种如此有用的货币,绑架者和敲诈勒索者等等。我也不喜欢给一个刚刚凭空发明了一种新金融产品的人多花了几十亿美元。所以我想我应该谦虚地说,整个该死的发展都是令人厌恶的,违背了文明的利益。”

巴菲特说:“我们看到了严重的通货膨胀。”

巴菲特说:“我们看到了严重的通货膨胀。我们在提价,人们也在给我们提价。这一点正在被接受。”“我们真的做了很多住房。成本就是涨,涨,涨。钢材成本。你知道,它们每天都在上涨。”

他补充道:“这是一个经济--真的,现在非常火热。我们没有料到会这样。”

在过去的一年里,你学到的最大的教训是什么?

“我最大的教训就是多听查理的话,”巴菲特说。
芒格说:“我们处在一种未知的领域。”
巴菲特补充道:“我们很享受,以一种疯狂的方式,亲眼看到发生的事情。”

股东大会结束,巴菲特期待2022年奥马哈活动

“我真的希望,我认为机会非常、非常大,我们明年能在奥马哈举行这次会议。我希望伯克希尔股东能创纪录地出席,我们真的很期待在奥马哈与你们见面。”

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