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Bitcoin slumps toward another 'crypto winter'

Bitcoin slumps toward another 'crypto winter'

比特幣暴跌,走向另一個“密碼冬天”
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2021/06/26 06:32

By Paul Vigna

保羅·維格納(Paul Vigna)著

New bitcoin investors felt the thrill of the digital currency's most recent epic rally. Now, they are experiencing the other side of that ride.

新的比特幣投資者感受到了這種數字貨幣最近Epic反彈的興奮。現在,他們正在經歷這趟旅程的另一邊。

Bitcoin rose from $5,000 in March 2020 to nearly $64,000 by April 2021. It then plummeted to as low as $29,002; Friday it settled at $32,212.

比特幣從2020年3月的5000美元上漲到2021年4月的近6.4萬美元。隨後暴跌至29,002美元的低點;上週五結算價為32,212美元。

As severe as the recent selloff is, though, it isn't close to being the worst in the digital currency's 12-year history.

然而,儘管最近的拋售如此嚴重,但它還沒有接近這種數字貨幣12年曆史上最嚴重的拋售。

Since 2012, bitcoin has endured 14 selloffs of more than 30%, six of more than 50%, and three of more than 80%, according to data from Visual Capitalist.

根據Visual Capital的數據,自2012年以來,比特幣經歷了14次超過30%的拋售,6次超過50%的拋售,3次超過80%的拋售。

The deepest of those selloffs have been followed by long periods of flat trading. It's a cycle that has come to be called "crypto winter."

在這些拋售中,最嚴重的一次之後是長時間的持平交易。這是一個被稱為“密碼冬天”的循環。

In October and November 2013, bitcoin rose 10-fold and then fell 87% through January 2016. In 2017, the price rose nearly 20 times, and then fell 84% over the next year. It didn't recover its previous high until late 2020.

2013年10月和11月,比特幣上漲了10倍,然後到2016年1月下跌了87%。2017年,價格上漲了近20倍,然後在接下來的一年裏下跌了84%。直到2020年末,它才恢復到之前的高點。

Bitcoin is driven mostly by sentiment and risk appetite, said DailyFX analyst Peter Hanks. Once an asset driven by those factors starts falling, it's easier for it to keep falling, he said.

DailyFX分析師彼得·漢克斯(Peter Hanks)表示,比特幣的驅動因素主要是情緒和風險偏好。他説,一旦受這些因素驅動的資產開始下跌,它就更容易繼續下跌。

"I think bitcoin is certainly headed for more losses here," Mr. Hanks said. With $30,000 having been pierced, the next major level is $20,000, he said. "If it breaks that, then crypto winter is certainly back on the docket."

漢克斯説,“我認為比特幣肯定會遭受更多損失。”他説,隨着3萬美元已經被刺穿,下一個主要水平是2萬美元。“如果它打破了這一點,那麼Crypto温特肯定會被重新提上議事日程。”

Each cycle's rally has been driven by a new group of buyers, and each selloff has seen many of them leave the market. That may be happening again. Bitcoin's biggest problem isn't a crackdown by China on cryptocurrencies or Elon Musk's snarky tweets, said J.P. Morgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Its problem is money leaving the asset class.

每個週期的反彈都是由一羣新的買家推動的,每一次拋售都讓他們中的許多人離開了市場。這種情況可能會再次發生。摩根大通(J.P.Morgan)分析師Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou表示,比特幣最大的問題不是中國對加密貨幣的打擊,也不是埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)尖刻的推文。它的問題是資金離開了這一資產類別。

"More than a month after the May 19th crypto crash, bitcoin funds continue to bleed," he wrote in a report. "Institutional investors, who tend to invest via regulated vehicles such as publicly listed bitcoin funds or CME Bitcoin futures, still exhibit little appetite to buy the bitcoin dip."

他在一份報告中寫道:“在5月19日密碼崩盤一個多月後,比特幣資金持續大出血。”“機構投資者傾向於通過公開上市的比特幣基金或芝加哥商品交易所(CME)比特幣期貨等受監管的工具進行投資,他們仍然沒有表現出購買比特幣下跌的興趣。”

For the week ended June 18, crypto funds saw outflows of $79 million, according to investment firm CoinShares. That was a third straight week of outflows, totaling $211 million. The skid marked the longest such streak since February 2018.

根據投資公司CoinShares的數據,截至6月18日的一週,加密基金流出7900萬美元。這是連續第三週資金外流,總計2.11億美元。這是自2018年2月以來持續時間最長的一次下滑。

Bitcoin-only funds, the firm noted, endured a sixth straight week of outflows: $89 million last week, and $246 million in total for the first three weeks of June.

該公司指出,僅限比特幣的基金連續第六週出現資金外流:上週流出8900萬美元,6月前三週總計流出2.46億美元。

Many in the market still believe institutional money will come back, though it might take longer than expected, said Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of crypto exchange FTX. Still, a lot of the businesses in the sector did well in this last cycle and are in a good position to weather a downturn. And he still expects more institutional investors will show up, eventually.

密碼交易所FTX創始人薩姆·班克曼-弗裏德(Sam Bankman-Fry)表示,市場上許多人仍相信機構資金會回來,儘管這可能需要比預期更長的時間。儘管如此,該行業的許多企業在上一輪週期中表現良好,並處於良好的地位,能夠經受住經濟低迷。他仍然預計,最終會有更多的機構投資者出現。

"Overall, I think this is a lot less deflated and grim than previous drawdowns," he said.

他表示:“總的來説,我認為這一次的通縮程度和嚴峻程度比之前的撤資要小得多。”

Write to Paul Vigna at paul.vigna@wsj.com

寫信給Paul Vigna,電子郵件:paul.vigna@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

(完)道瓊通訊社

June 26, 2021 05:30 ET (09:30 GMT)

美國東部時間2021年6月26日05:30(格林尼治標準時間09:30)

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