NVDA’s sales momentum is unsustainable. We know there were hoarding by Chinese companies ahead of US restrictions. And these chips are not consumables, ie once a datacenter is built its chip demand will drop off. Besides the compitition is heating up and some customers are starting to design their own chips. Therefore NVDA is a long term short candidate. NVDS is the way to go.

I think the stock market has entered into a new bull market, with the bottom made in last October. It is following a late 1990’s playbook, with AI now replacing the commercialization of the internet back then. The narratives and investor enthusiasm as well as valuations all resemble what was like back then. Psychological hurdles like 4200 4300 and 4400 will be broken, perhaps after a pullback around the debt ceiling “crisis” near term. My year end target for the S&P 500 is 4500...

Every quarter there are about 2/3 of companies beating analyst estimates. Why? Because analysts adjust their estimates before companies report. Actually so-called “beating or missing” game is simply a way for wall street to manipulate short term stock price fluctuations. For investors it is better to simply focus on year on year company revenue and earnings growth. Therefore one should look for companies in sectors exhibiting higher revenue growth than that of the S&P 500, as well as strong earn...

What makes this cycle different is geopolitics. US and China, as well as some other countries are expanding their manufacturing capacity for security reasons, while fabless firms are overly reliant on TSM. One has to be more selective than previous cycles.

It is generous and considerate for you to do this. Corporations should pay more attention to social and environmental causes, not just focus on profits. ESG type of investing, however, is a different story, as the standards can be subjective and one-size-fits-all. I think it is another fad that will come and go.

It is a good time to pick up some yield. Right now I would focus on the short term treasury etfs such as SCHO and SPTS. TIP is also very attractive in the high inflation environment. As the Fed hiking cycle gets to the end, I will put some money in emerging market bond etfs, in local currency, such as ELD and EMLC.

Automobile business is, after all, a cyclical business. The competition for electric vehicles is also heating up but the cost of battery materials is going up. Paying a dividend, while it may broaden the appeal of the stock to more investors, unmistakeably signals to core growth investors that the fast growth period of Tesla is over.