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MarketWise China Private ID: 70096873
Independent institute with 20 years experience in US stocks
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    The original English version of this article was first published on January 15
    In this article, I'd like to share with you another way to gain an advantage in trading. This method is related to public information. Most people either don't know they have this information or don't know how to use it to their advantage.
    This approach looks at “insider buys.”
    Company insiders are the management team, board members, or shareholders who hold at least 5% of the company's shares. They can get information that the public can't get, but they can't trade based on that information because it's illegal “insider trading.”
    Legitimate insider trading is different.
    These insiders are allowed to trade based on publicly available information and their in-depth knowledge of the business. In most cases, they have to report their trades to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) within two days, then their trading information is made public.
    If you know how to interpret this information, they can alert you to a great opportunity to trade.
    You need to know that not all insider purchases are important; in order to select important information, you need to figure out the following questions.
    1. Question 1: Who is buying it?
    Generally speaking, you want the highest-level insiders, that is, company executives, such as the CEO (CEO), chief financial officer (CFO), and chief operating officer (COO), to buy.
    Often these insiders know more about the details of a company's operations than anyone else, so when the market abuses the company's stock too much...
    Translated
    Three dimensions, teach you to use “internal information” in a compliant manner to make money
    Three dimensions, teach you to use “internal information” in a compliant manner to make money
    Three dimensions, teach you to use “internal information” in a compliant manner to make money
    Megatrend investing can generate attractive returns, but with one condition: you need to reinvest when no one is paying attention or when everyone is shying away from these assets.
    Even if you notice an obvious major trend, if other investors are already betting on this opportunity, your earnings will still be affected.
    This is exactly what happened to all investors in one sector last year.
    Below I'll share what happened in that section, what we can learn from it, and how to avoid this trap.
    The story behind an obvious megatrend is always fascinating, especially the kind of investment theme that will change our lives for decades to come.
    Investors who are betting on this investment theme are generally right. The sector they are entering is likely to take off in the next few years, but this doesn't change the basic principle of investment: if the timing is wrong, you will still suffer huge losses.
    The section we're talking about today is the clean energy section.
    Investors' enthusiasm for clean energy was high in 2020. Ford Motor unveiled the all-electric Mustang Mach-E, switching from its most characteristic muscle car to an electric car. In the same year, GM also launched an all-electric SUV. Honda plans to launch an all-electric SUV called Honda ProLogue in 2024.
    In addition to the above companies, Jaguar, Cadillac, Volvo and other car brands plan to only produce electric cars by 2030.
    Not only are automobile companies promoting the development of clean energy, the US...
    Translated
    Learn the deep investment in lightning protection trends!
    Learn the deep investment in lightning protection trends!
    Learn the deep investment in lightning protection trends!
    The S&P 500 is often seen as a weather vane for the US economy, but don't be fooled by it sometimes.
    Today's S&P 500 Index is different from what it used to be. Today, only a few companies account for the majority of the S&P 500 Index's constituent stocks.
    A few companies refer to “FAAMG” companies, including Meta Platform (FB), Apple (Apple), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL).
    The total market capitalization of these five companies accounts for 22.3% of the S&P 500 index. If you add Tesla (TSLA) with a listing value of $1.1 trillion, the market capitalization of these six companies accounts for a quarter of the S&P 500 index.
    Therefore, although the S&P 500 originally represents a broad range of markets, many times its trend is directly related to these big tech giants.
    Other smaller companies may be in trouble, and their stock prices may fall, but if the shares of these 6 tech giants rise, the S&P 500 index may also rise. As a result, it is often difficult to tell whether a bull market is actually healthy or whether it is supported by just a few companies.
    One way to assess this is to look at the rising and falling lines of the S&P 500 index.
    The rise and fall line is a simple evaluation indicator. The number of stocks that have risen on a certain day is subtracted from the number of stocks that have fallen. If there are many stocks that have risen on the same day, the rise and fall line will rise; if there are more falling stocks, the rise and fall line...
    Translated
    Sing empty sounds? But this indicator is sending a buying signal!
    Sing empty sounds? But this indicator is sending a buying signal!
    Consumer necessities stocks were among the top performers in the stock market over the past month. The benchmark S&P 500 index has fallen 0.9% since December 10, while the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index (S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index) has risen 4%.
    As we all know, consumer necessities are stores and items that people cannot live without in their daily lives, such as grocery stores, food companies, and household goods manufacturers such as toilet paper, toothpaste, and garbage bags. These are all sources of major necessities.
    Regardless of the economic situation, people always have to go to these stores to buy these products, so these companies don't need to experience drastic demand fluctuations like other economic sectors. Additionally, due to their stability, these companies often pay growing dividends to shareholders on a regular basis.
    The combination of these two major advantages makes consumer necessities a “risk-averse” sector. Investors tend to transfer capital to this sector when other sectors of the market seem risky.
    Recently, the stock market is quite risky. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index (one of the most popular “venture capital” sectors) has fallen 5% in the past month, and many individual stocks within this sector have fallen even worse.
    However, the rise in consumer goods stock prices may lose momentum, at least in the short term.
    One of our favorite ways to assess trader sentiment is to look at the Bulls Percentage Index (BPI). What BPI tracks is a...
    Translated
    Follow tech stocks! Is the consumer necessities sector rising fast or not?
    Follow tech stocks! Is the consumer necessities sector rising fast or not?
    1、要做的不是预测,而是风险评估
    对人类来说,世事难料,主要是因为未来是不可预测的。
    我们生活在一个复杂、相互关联的世界里,没有人能够明确知道接下来会发生什么。
    回顾近期市场上的重大事件,任何真实的评估都会认可,它们不可预测。
    没有人特意预测COVID-19疫情暴发,不知道它从何而起,实际上回顾过去,我们甚至还没有完全明确它的起源。
    随之而来的惊人牛市似乎也是不可预测的,全球封锁后股市出现了疯狂的牛市,这是史无前例的。
    其它市场驱动因素并不是非人为的“黑天鹅”(像COVID-19这种),而是取决于一小群人的一个决定,这个决定可能会发挥任何的驱动作用。
    虽然你不可能预测得到疫情,但当你认真评估风险,你会估计到这类情况出现的可能性,即使你不知道确切的出现时间或方式。
    但是,这些都是对风险的评估,而不是预测。因为你清楚股票价格会受到波及面广和不可预测的事件影响,所以你要确保不增加杠杆,你也会知道可能会出现50%的跌幅。
    如果你信任你对你的投资组合所做的预测(或者别人做的预测),那么你就在拿自己的资金去冒险。
    因此,我们在做2022年的专栏内容计划的时候,我们转为做风险评...
    做投资永远不要相信预测
    做投资永远不要相信预测
    做投资永远不要相信预测
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    Rewards Giveaway for joining the Q&A session:
    Q1: How many years has the US been in a bull market?
    A: 13 years @71274309
    Q2: The S&P 500 entered 2021 with a P/E ratio of 30.7 and ended with a P/E ratio of 23.6.
    Why did multiples decline?
    A: earning growth outpaced the s&p 500 gain @71274309
    Q3: what sector will Shaoping most avoid in 2022?
    A: Casinos @102866915
    The rewards have been issued. Thank you for joining the show!
    这是一个让很多投资者欲罢不能、很容易陷入的陷阱。
    在市场大幅下跌的时候,他们会有买入股票的欲望,希望能抄底。
    毕竟,正如老话所说,我们希望能“低买高卖”。但在股价仍在下跌时买入有时候是一种危险的玩法,通常会导致亏损。
    今天我们来聊聊,有一个市场正处于它的低迷期,但投资者正在蜂拥而至,这释放了一个危险信号,2022年可能还会进一步亏损。
    今年中丐让不少人亏损(我们一年前就说过,远离中概股,不知道多少朋友做到了)。尤其受回港热潮的影响,但跌到现在,很多朋友会好奇,到底该抄底吗?毕竟在底部买入具有很大的吸引力,潜在的收益最大,如果能做成一单大的,也够炫耀一阵子了。
    因此许多投资者准备抄底。
    ETF-iShares(FXI)持有一篮子在香港上市的中国龙头公司的股票,这是美国投资者投资中国股票最简单的方式之一。
    重要的是,自去年2月份见顶以来,FXI一直在持续下跌,自那之后FXI下跌了约32%。
    但投资者并未放弃这个市场,我们从FXI的流通份额总数量中可以看出这一点,原理很简单:
    FXI独特的基金结构令它能够根据投资者的需求增发或清算份额。如果投资者看涨中国的蓝筹...
    “中丐”能抄底吗?揭秘历史教训!
    Editor's note: As part of the New Year series, we will once again analyze the real estate market.
    1. The real estate market is just beginning
    l Choose between gold and real estate investment; Steve will no doubt choose the latter
    Admittedly, the US real estate market is the focus of 2021, and record low interest rates and high demand have led to crazy housing bidding wars and skyrocketing housing prices.
    These are all speculative frenzy, reminiscent of the real estate bubble before the financial crisis. But according to Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, the real estate bull market is not a bubble, but the beginning of a long-term trend that is far from over.
    As Steve stated in a research report published on September 9, he believes that real estate is an excellent investment today and even the next 10 years. If he had no choice, he would choose to give up all of his gold investments. Old readers probably know that Steve is very optimistic about investing in the US real estate market.
    Steve called this real estate bull market his most important prediction for the 1920s. In the following, Steve shares the three best ways to seize this huge trend.
    If I had to opt out, I (Steve, same point below) would choose to never invest in gold and instead invest in the real estate market.
    Around 2000, gold was about to end its 10-year bear market.
    It would be too conservative to say that no one paid attention to gold at the time.
    I remember the first time I went to the coin fair. The exhibition hall was half full, and everyone who came to the exhibition was over 60 years old....
    Translated
    This is probably Steve's most important prediction for 2020
    This is probably Steve's most important prediction for 2020
    1. I personally think that there may be a market crash in 2022.The "market" here refers to the stock market and the corporate bond market, which is much larger than the stock market.I'm not the only one who thinks so. Michael Burry is one of the few people who can foresee the financial crisis in 2008. In 2007, he bought credit default swaps on mortgage bonds through his hedge fund, betting heavily on a fall in the market.The deal earned $750 million for Burry investors and $100m for himself. Michael Lewis wrote a book about him, which was later adapted into the movie Big short.We should all pay attention to Burry.He doesn't often share his thoughts, and when he does, he usually speaks on Twitter these days.Now that Burry predicts that the "mother of the crash" is emerging, he says the market is like dancing on the cutting edge. He recently posted a message about the market on Twitter:More speculative than in the 1920s, higher than the overvaluation of the 1990s, and worse than the geopolitical and economic conflicts of the 1970s.In addition to posting on Twitter, Burry is selling most of his shares.At his hedge fund Thain Asset Management (Scion Asset Management), he cut his portfolio from more than 20 stocks to six at the end of the third quarter.Not all my colleagues like it.
    Translated
    The economy may face a recession in 2022, and US stocks are about to collapse!?
    The economy may face a recession in 2022, and US stocks are about to collapse!?
    The economy may face a recession in 2022, and US stocks are about to collapse!?
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