- Increase in policy interest rates
- If the outlook for the economy and prices materializes, we will continue to indicate our intention to raise policy interest rates.
- Due to the current extremely low real interest rates, an increase is deemed necessary.
Financial capital market instability.
- The future of the American economy and others is uncertain, and the financial market continues to be unstable.
- It was stated that these conditions will be closely monitored with high tension, and the impact on the Japanese economy and prices will be determined.
A reduction in the risk of inflationary pressure.
- Due to the movement of exchange rates, the risk of upward pressure on prices due to a weakening yen since the beginning of the year has decreased.
- They expressed the view that there is "time flexibility" in policy decisions.
⚫ Overseas economic analysis.
- American economic uncertainty is a factor of market volatility, and it was stated that careful analysis is needed to confirm its impact.
- It was emphasized that they want to determine whether the scenario of a "soft landing" in the American economy will come true.
Recognizing the underlying inflation rate
- The Japanese economy is generally progressing as expected.
He stated that the uncertainty of the American economy has made it difficult to make overall judgments.
⚫ Communication with the financial markets
Criticism that the Bank of Japan's perspective was not adequately conveyed due to market fluctuations
- If the outlook for the economy and prices materializes, we will continue to indicate our intention to raise policy interest rates.
- Due to the current extremely low real interest rates, an increase is deemed necessary.
Financial capital market instability.
- The future of the American economy and others is uncertain, and the financial market continues to be unstable.
- It was stated that these conditions will be closely monitored with high tension, and the impact on the Japanese economy and prices will be determined.
A reduction in the risk of inflationary pressure.
- Due to the movement of exchange rates, the risk of upward pressure on prices due to a weakening yen since the beginning of the year has decreased.
- They expressed the view that there is "time flexibility" in policy decisions.
⚫ Overseas economic analysis.
- American economic uncertainty is a factor of market volatility, and it was stated that careful analysis is needed to confirm its impact.
- It was emphasized that they want to determine whether the scenario of a "soft landing" in the American economy will come true.
Recognizing the underlying inflation rate
- The Japanese economy is generally progressing as expected.
He stated that the uncertainty of the American economy has made it difficult to make overall judgments.
⚫ Communication with the financial markets
Criticism that the Bank of Japan's perspective was not adequately conveyed due to market fluctuations
Translated
8
Which one are you? Presidential election!
What is the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting?
The Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting (hereinafter referred to as the monetary policy decision meeting) is an important meeting for the Bank of Japan (hereinafter referred to as the Bank of Japan) to decide Japan's monetary policy. At this meeting, based on the current situation and outlook of the Japanese economy, the direction and specific measures of monetary policy are discussed and decided. The results of the monetary policy decision meeting receive significant attention both domestically and internationally as they are directly related to the stability and growth of the economy.
Composition of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting
- Governor: The highest authority of the Bank of Japan.
・Deputy Vice Presidents (2): Assist the President in their role.
・Committee Members (6): Experts in economics and finance appointed by the government.
These members have extensive knowledge and experience in economics and finance, contributing to the decision-making of Japan's economic policies. The President and Deputy Vice Presidents are appointed by the government, while the Committee Members are selected from scholars and practitioners with expertise in financial policies.
⚫️Purpose of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings
1. Price Stability: To control the fluctuations in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and maintain a stable price level. This helps prevent inflation and deflation.
2. Financial system stability: Maintain the soundness of banks and other financial institutions, and the financial system...
What is the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting?
The Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting (hereinafter referred to as the monetary policy decision meeting) is an important meeting for the Bank of Japan (hereinafter referred to as the Bank of Japan) to decide Japan's monetary policy. At this meeting, based on the current situation and outlook of the Japanese economy, the direction and specific measures of monetary policy are discussed and decided. The results of the monetary policy decision meeting receive significant attention both domestically and internationally as they are directly related to the stability and growth of the economy.
Composition of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting
- Governor: The highest authority of the Bank of Japan.
・Deputy Vice Presidents (2): Assist the President in their role.
・Committee Members (6): Experts in economics and finance appointed by the government.
These members have extensive knowledge and experience in economics and finance, contributing to the decision-making of Japan's economic policies. The President and Deputy Vice Presidents are appointed by the government, while the Committee Members are selected from scholars and practitioners with expertise in financial policies.
⚫️Purpose of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings
1. Price Stability: To control the fluctuations in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and maintain a stable price level. This helps prevent inflation and deflation.
2. Financial system stability: Maintain the soundness of banks and other financial institutions, and the financial system...
Translated
8
↑Voting is taking place Trump? Harris?
Trump's position
① Energy policy: It has been promoting the expansion of petroleum and natural gas drilling, and calling for a reduction in gasoline prices. However, the stock prices of oil majors are slumping due to the fall in crude oil prices.
② Revival of manufacturing: It has been advocating the revival of the US manufacturing industry. The stock prices temporarily rose against the background of strengthened border security and increased demand for construction machinery, but are currently slumping.
③Corporate tax cuts and tariff policies: Advocating for permanent reduction in corporate taxes and income taxes to promote economic growth, while emphasizing protectionist policies such as high tariffs on imports.
④Pressure on the Federal Reserve (FRB): Demonstrating a proactive stance in pressuring the FRB for aggressive interest rate cuts and advocating for strengthening the president's authority to correct the strong dollar policy.
⑤Contradictory policies: Pointing out the contradictions in the combination of growth-oriented and protectionist policies, economist Paul Krugman warns of the resurgence of inflation due to the political use of tariffs and the Federal Reserve.
⑥Impact on the market: The Trump administration's impact on the market includes both expectations of growth and anxiety due to protectionist policies.
⑦Trend of populism: There is a tendency of populism in the policy, and the united states steel by japan...
Trump's position
① Energy policy: It has been promoting the expansion of petroleum and natural gas drilling, and calling for a reduction in gasoline prices. However, the stock prices of oil majors are slumping due to the fall in crude oil prices.
② Revival of manufacturing: It has been advocating the revival of the US manufacturing industry. The stock prices temporarily rose against the background of strengthened border security and increased demand for construction machinery, but are currently slumping.
③Corporate tax cuts and tariff policies: Advocating for permanent reduction in corporate taxes and income taxes to promote economic growth, while emphasizing protectionist policies such as high tariffs on imports.
④Pressure on the Federal Reserve (FRB): Demonstrating a proactive stance in pressuring the FRB for aggressive interest rate cuts and advocating for strengthening the president's authority to correct the strong dollar policy.
⑤Contradictory policies: Pointing out the contradictions in the combination of growth-oriented and protectionist policies, economist Paul Krugman warns of the resurgence of inflation due to the political use of tariffs and the Federal Reserve.
⑥Impact on the market: The Trump administration's impact on the market includes both expectations of growth and anxiety due to protectionist policies.
⑦Trend of populism: There is a tendency of populism in the policy, and the united states steel by japan...
Translated
6
CPI rose 2.5% compared to the previous year.
Slight growth since February 2021.
Persistent stickiness observed in underlying inflation.
Maintaining inflation pressure on housing expenses and service costs.
Food rose by 0.1% compared to the previous month.
Energy decreased by 0.8%.
Gasoline prices also fell by 0.6%.
- The core CPI rose 3.2% compared to the previous year.
- It rose 0.3% compared to the previous month, with a slight acceleration.
- Service prices have risen for two consecutive months, increasing by 0.3%.
- Service prices excluding rent have increased by 0.1%.
Residence expenses have increased by 0.5%
Attributable rent has increased by 0.5%
Hotel lodging fees have surged by 1.8%
Used autos and trucks have dropped by 1%
Rising housing costs offsetting other decreases
Slight growth since February 2021.
Persistent stickiness observed in underlying inflation.
Maintaining inflation pressure on housing expenses and service costs.
Food rose by 0.1% compared to the previous month.
Energy decreased by 0.8%.
Gasoline prices also fell by 0.6%.
- The core CPI rose 3.2% compared to the previous year.
- It rose 0.3% compared to the previous month, with a slight acceleration.
- Service prices have risen for two consecutive months, increasing by 0.3%.
- Service prices excluding rent have increased by 0.1%.
Residence expenses have increased by 0.5%
Attributable rent has increased by 0.5%
Hotel lodging fees have surged by 1.8%
Used autos and trucks have dropped by 1%
Rising housing costs offsetting other decreases
Translated
7
Source of announcement
・ADP Employment Statistics: Released by private company ADP
・NFP: Released by the US Department of Labor
Target range
- ADP Employment Statistics: private sector only
- NFP: includes public sector (excluding agricultural sector)
Data collection method
ADP Employment Statistics: Based on ADP client payroll data.
NFP: Based on surveys of businesses and households conducted by the government.
Timing of Publication
- ADP Employment Statistics: 2 days before NFP.
- NFP: Every first Friday of the month.
Impact on the market:
- ADP Employment Statistics: It is used as a reference, but the impact is limited.
NFP: Has a significant impact on the economy and financial markets.
・ADP Employment Statistics: Released by private company ADP
・NFP: Released by the US Department of Labor
Target range
- ADP Employment Statistics: private sector only
- NFP: includes public sector (excluding agricultural sector)
Data collection method
ADP Employment Statistics: Based on ADP client payroll data.
NFP: Based on surveys of businesses and households conducted by the government.
Timing of Publication
- ADP Employment Statistics: 2 days before NFP.
- NFP: Every first Friday of the month.
Impact on the market:
- ADP Employment Statistics: It is used as a reference, but the impact is limited.
NFP: Has a significant impact on the economy and financial markets.
Translated
8
Announced at 21:30
What is employment statistics?
Employment statistics indicate the labor market situation over a certain period of time.
The main contents are as follows:
• Non-farm payroll: Number of employees in sectors other than agriculture
• Unemployment rate: The percentage of the labor force that is actively seeking employment but unable to find a job
* Average hourly wage: wages per hour.
Employment statistics are an important indicator for determining the state of the economy.
In particular, the number of non-agricultural sector employees is being closely watched as a leading indicator of the economy.
If the number of non-agricultural sector employees increases, it is considered that the economy is expanding.
Conversely, if it decreases, it is considered that the economy is contracting.
✅The impact of employment statistics
Employment statistics have a significant impact on exchange rates and stocks.
When the number of non-farm payroll employees increases, there is a tendency for expectations of economic expansion to increase and stock prices and exchange rates to rise.
Conversely, when it decreases, there is an increasing concern about economic recession, and there tends to be a decline in stock prices and exchange rates.
✅Also, employment statistics have an impact on the FRB's monetary policy.
The FRB operates monetary policy with the goal of achieving stability in employment and prices.
Non-farm payroll...
What is employment statistics?
Employment statistics indicate the labor market situation over a certain period of time.
The main contents are as follows:
• Non-farm payroll: Number of employees in sectors other than agriculture
• Unemployment rate: The percentage of the labor force that is actively seeking employment but unable to find a job
* Average hourly wage: wages per hour.
Employment statistics are an important indicator for determining the state of the economy.
In particular, the number of non-agricultural sector employees is being closely watched as a leading indicator of the economy.
If the number of non-agricultural sector employees increases, it is considered that the economy is expanding.
Conversely, if it decreases, it is considered that the economy is contracting.
✅The impact of employment statistics
Employment statistics have a significant impact on exchange rates and stocks.
When the number of non-farm payroll employees increases, there is a tendency for expectations of economic expansion to increase and stock prices and exchange rates to rise.
Conversely, when it decreases, there is an increasing concern about economic recession, and there tends to be a decline in stock prices and exchange rates.
✅Also, employment statistics have an impact on the FRB's monetary policy.
The FRB operates monetary policy with the goal of achieving stability in employment and prices.
Non-farm payroll...
Translated
12
1
The PCE deflator is an index that classifies the total amount of personal consumption expenditure in the United States into categories such as food and housing expenses.
The PCE core deflator, which is also released at the same time, is an index that excludes food and energy from the PCE deflator.
* The FRB pays more attention to this PCE core as a criterion for determining the policy interest rate than CPI and employment statistics.
It is the most important expenditure item that accounts for about 70% of the United States' gross domestic product (GDP), and is an important indicator for understanding the economic situation of the United States.
The PCE is released monthly by the US Department of Commerce.
The PCE is composed of the following items.
※FRBは政策金利を決める基準として、CPIや雇用統計よりも、このPCEコアを最も重視しています。
PCEは、米商務省が毎月発表しています。
- Durable consumer goods: automobiles, furniture, household appliances, etc.
If the PCE is higher than expected, it suggests that the growth of the US economy is accelerating.
On the other hand, if PCE is lower than expected, it suggests that the growth of the US economy is slowing down.
PCE also has a significant impact on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB).
The PCE core deflator, which is also released at the same time, is an index that excludes food and energy from the PCE deflator.
* The FRB pays more attention to this PCE core as a criterion for determining the policy interest rate than CPI and employment statistics.
It is the most important expenditure item that accounts for about 70% of the United States' gross domestic product (GDP), and is an important indicator for understanding the economic situation of the United States.
The PCE is released monthly by the US Department of Commerce.
The PCE is composed of the following items.
※FRBは政策金利を決める基準として、CPIや雇用統計よりも、このPCEコアを最も重視しています。
PCEは、米商務省が毎月発表しています。
- Durable consumer goods: automobiles, furniture, household appliances, etc.
If the PCE is higher than expected, it suggests that the growth of the US economy is accelerating.
On the other hand, if PCE is lower than expected, it suggests that the growth of the US economy is slowing down.
PCE also has a significant impact on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB).
Translated
6
$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$
Reports say that the submission of the annual report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the 2024 fiscal year has been postponed.
Reports say that the submission of the annual report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the 2024 fiscal year has been postponed.
Translated
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
What kind of company is Nvidia?
Nvidia is a company that manufactures high-performance semiconductors (especially graphics processing units called GPUs) used in computer graphics and AI (artificial intelligence) applications.
Gaming, filmmaking, AI research and development, and recently, utilization in various fields such as self-driving cars.
Reasons why Nvidia's financial results are attracting attention:
① At the forefront of the AI boom.
Due to the rapid development of AI technology, many companies are investing in AI. Nvidia's GPU is essential for AI training and inference, and it benefits greatly from this AI boom. Investors are interested in how successful Nvidia is in the AI market, specifically focusing on sales and profits.
② Strength in the gaming market.
Nvidia's GPU holds a strong position, particularly in the high-end PC gaming market. The growth of the gaming market directly impacts Nvidia's performance, making it one of the factors to watch in their financial results.
③ Expectations for new technologies.
What kind of company is Nvidia?
Nvidia is a company that manufactures high-performance semiconductors (especially graphics processing units called GPUs) used in computer graphics and AI (artificial intelligence) applications.
Gaming, filmmaking, AI research and development, and recently, utilization in various fields such as self-driving cars.
Reasons why Nvidia's financial results are attracting attention:
① At the forefront of the AI boom.
Due to the rapid development of AI technology, many companies are investing in AI. Nvidia's GPU is essential for AI training and inference, and it benefits greatly from this AI boom. Investors are interested in how successful Nvidia is in the AI market, specifically focusing on sales and profits.
② Strength in the gaming market.
Nvidia's GPU holds a strong position, particularly in the high-end PC gaming market. The growth of the gaming market directly impacts Nvidia's performance, making it one of the factors to watch in their financial results.
③ Expectations for new technologies.
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