UPDATE December 13
Today is the day!
PPI comes out an hour before open and oil inventories get released an hour after that... but 2 hrs before the market closes, the FED fund rates get released (there shouldn't be any surprises), but the big dog, Papa Powell, speaks an hour later.
The market is over its ski's 🎿
and Powell has a history of putting it in its place. Can he do it again.
The QQQ almost hit my 400 target. That means it's at a great place to pull back. It's also a great place to blast and squeeze up.
The market is under the impression of 5 rate cuts next year. It is delusional in believing the FED can do something it's never done before, engineer a soft landing. They will not, and the market is not listening to Powell. He has said 2% inflation target and a slow economy. According to the numbers, we are at 4% inflation and 5.2 GDP (that is booming, not slowing). So why is he going to lower? The only reason is because they broke something (banks, bonds, pensions, real estate, you name it - it broke). If you're rooting for a good recovery, you would root for rates staying higher and an economy that struggles but pulls through.
The market is squeezing up, and it's hard to reverse something squeezing up. But if anything can do it, it's Powell.
Let's look at some charts... I would wait and see how the market treats the dot plot and then Powells speech before acting today.
Stayed in the channel yesterday and pushed up, now shifting into the next channel. There are still bearish divergences. Bearish divergences are not guarantees they are warnings.
The upper expected move is 16740, and the lower move is 16470. I believe those are narrow and that the actual move could be much larger. but maybe the larger move comes tomorrow 🤔
It broke out of the trend and almost reached my 400 target. This is a great spot to pullback but also a good spot to launch from.
The upper expected move is 402, and the lower target is 395. Just like futures, I expect a larger move.
The DOW is very strong. It has a 7 count on the weekly and is well past a 9 count on the daily. The lower times have bearish divergences. The 200 MA is at 35,900, which should be support, with 32,500 being the lower pullback move.
Dumped yesterday. I bought it just out of the bottom fishing strategy when vix has sharp drops. 12 is a historic level to get a bounce.
I thought oil would start a bullish move last week to 94. It has since lost momentum. I was going to post a proposed pairs trade that iam in, where I'm long oil and short gold. I'm glad I didn't 😊 my gold short is golden, but my oil lags 😠 now, I think we get a weaker bounce up in oil.
I have a deep drop as a wave sequence
I think Bitcoin gets another run (that's what it does) and the drops hard (that's also what it does 😁)
$Micro 10-Year Yield Futures(DEC3) (10Ymain.US)$
if the ten year is going to run, that is bearish for the market.
Be Safe, be Careful, Be Wise
and as always
Good Luck ![]()
BIG DAY... trade well.
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71280062 : Still shorting Treasuries?
iamiamOP 71280062: holding them, yes. it may be a few weeks before I'm positive again
but I think I ate most of the downside today. if it gets below 3.96, then I will reevaluate.
71280062 iamiamOP: Can I ask why, is it because Japan is going to raise interest rates and go back to selling US treasuries? Thank you！
iamiamOP 71280062: yes, that and I have a forecast of rates above 7% in the future. They go hand in hand. everything happening around the world, I believe, is inevitable. I believed Japan would always do this. We can see a boom
but that will inevitably be followed by a bust in assets. The world economies are playing the blinking game. Everyone is just trying not to be the domino that sets it off.
71280062 iamiamOP: thats bad
iamiamOP 71280062: I believe we are in a bubble 🫧
71280062 iamiamOP: Thank you, I plan to buy tbt to short treasuries. Everyone's so crazy.
iamiamOP 71280062: I wouldn't do it yet. don't jump in on expectation. I was up big and am barely down, plus I took profits, so i can wait it out. I would wait for the market to tell you it's done. it could go 4.98, or lower which wouldn't surprise me.
iamiamOP 71280062: sorry, 3.92 is my lower limit
71280062 iamiamOP: What do you think about the stock market? it reached a new high…
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