There is a bid for US bonds this week.

新divOP : This week, the total amount is 183 billion dollars
Of 28.29 trillion yen in Japanese yen
There are tenders for US 2-year bonds, 5-year bonds, and 7-year bonds.
US 2-year bonds and 5-year bonds are the largest bids ever
2-year bonds exceed 5%.

Interest rates rise and fall as bonds are bid on.

BUCHOYAN : it's no good anymore... Will this go up to about $30
I'm leaving the $55 one and cutting the $65 one tonight in the hope that it will return by the end of next year
I lost 1 car due to a double inverse last year, and I admonished myself for not learning at all.

新divOP : US Q1 GDP on Thursday
There's a PCE announcement on Friday.

US interest rate cuts
PCE
GDP
unemployment rate
The Federal Reserve places importance on it.

Interest rate cut
Ahead of the United States
In June
Canada's unemployment rate has increased and GDP is 1% this year
Will Europe hit the bottom of inflation in Q4 2023?
It seems to be ahead of the US.

March interest rate cut
Switzerland and Mexico

Conversely, will Japan raise interest rates in October?

The current high interest rate is higher than the Lehman shock
High interest rates
The depth of reverse yield is deeper than the Lehman shock.
The recession was confirmed around the time it was resolved, and the fear index,
Pay attention to the movement of the S&P 500.

There are currently no financial results for American companies with strong economies.
There are financial results for high-tech companies representing the United States this week

I don't know if the current decline in stock prices is simply an adjustment, or if the economy will weaken in the future.

What will happen with the current high interest rates at the FOMC on 5/1?

After the bank went bankrupt in March last year, the Fed implemented QE
December meeting last November when the maximum yield of 10-year bonds exceeded 5%
Interest rates are expected to be cut 3 times in '24.

The number of interest rate cuts in September when factoring in current interest rate cuts is 2 to 3 times

The current high interest rates are unrealized losses on regional banks and bank bonds
has expanded, and the current decline in federal reserves is also declining to the maximum after savings after the Lehman shock.
After COVID-19
The burning of commercial real estate, the refinancing of regional banks and banks
It takes 24 or 25 years, and debt is snowballing.
If refinancing is not possible and loss liabilities are determined
Regional banks and banks now have to sell their assets
Bonds will have to be sold.
If deposit withdrawals increase before that, installation fuss
At that point, the unrealized loss on the bond is determined.
Got into debt with commercial real estate
Bankruptcy of regional banks and banks is inevitable. Is it late or early?

投資家 t9m : Keep a firm hold on the timeline! Mental maintenance

株の慶次 : I have a feeling that Google is going to be mossy.