The general market price is overpriced! I don't like the decline in profit this fiscal year!
Over the past few weeks, the general market price has fallen into a commercial market due to high prices. Financial results have been announced in one round, but the sense of direction has not been decided. After hitting a high price of 40,087 yen on March 22, the Nikkei Stock Average was sold to a low of 36,733 yen (on a Zaraba basis) on 4/19. The rate of decline is 10.6%.
This rate of decline (March high to April low) is significantly higher than the NY Dow's 5.7%, TOPIX's 7.9%, NASDAQ's 8.0%, and S&P 500's 5.9%. In the case of the Nikkei Stock Average, there is almost no doubt that in addition to the reaction of the sharp rise, there were sales gimmicks such as hedge funds.
Also, the Nikkei Stock Average is basically a valuable stock index. Due to the postponement of interest rate cuts by the Fed
$Tokyo Electron(8035.JP$、 $Lasertec(6920.JP$It seems that it reflected movements in high-tech stocks, etc. However, that's not the reason it was weaker than the essential NASDAQ index... Well, there's a good reason for the sharp drop.
The market is concerned about the cautious outlook for the fiscal year ending 2025/3, geopolitical risks, etc. In fact, the earnings forecasts for major companies are rather modest. $Socionext(6526.JP$、 $Fanuc(6954.JP$、 $Toyota Motor(7203.JP$Such is the case.
However, the estimated exchange rate for this fiscal year is 1 dollar = 130 yen for Socionext, 135 yen for FANUC, and 145 yen for Toyota Motor Corporation. The Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan have just stopped the depreciation of the yen, but they believe that 130 yen to 135 yen is impossible. As for geopolitical risks, the “worst case scenario” (5th Middle East War?) I think it was working on the premise.
Investment tactics that focus on high-performing stocks!
Of course, as a result of the current cautious earnings forecasts, the profit per share (based on forecast) of the Nikkei Stock Average fell slightly to 2238 yen (actual value 2245 yen). Until just a few weeks ago, profits were up 11-12%. PER is 17.2 times, which is 16.8 times higher than the MSCI World Index. It's difficult to keep up with higher prices in this situation, isn't it?
That's why this situation is on par with the moon, but the investment tactic of “don't look at the forest, look at the trees” would be effective. In other words, it is an individual selection. As for the December financial results, $Ryobi(5851.JP$、 $PeptiDream(4587.JP$A significant increase in profit is expected.
$Tomoegawa(3878.JP$Earnings per share for the fiscal year ending 2025/3 are expected to recover in a V-shape of 96.4 yen (57.3 yen in the previous fiscal year). The market price PER is 7.79 times, and the PBR is 0.63 times late.
$V Technology(7717.JP$Earnings per share for the fiscal year ending 2025/3 are expected to be 103.9 yen (80.7 yen for the previous fiscal year). The dividend will be 80 yen, an increase of 20 yen. It seems that orders in semiconductor manufacturing related fields are recovering.
Additionally, Yamaichi Electric (6941), $Japan Electronic Materials(6855.JP$、 $Miura(6005.JP$、 $Startia Holdings(3393.JP$、 $Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings(3099.JP$Good achievements such as stand out. Again, for the time being, we need an investment strategy aimed at after a “settlement play.”
Startia Holdings' profit per share for the fiscal year ending 2025/3 is expected to be 176.1 yen (165.3 yen in the previous fiscal year), and the dividend will be 97 yen (69 yen). The IT infrastructure business for small and medium-sized enterprises is growing.
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