[Preview] Will US October CPI slow as expected? Determining the future of US monetary tightening
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics2023/11/14 (Tue) 22:30 Japan timeuponUS Consumer Price Index (CPI) for OctoberIt is planned to be announced. While investors are trying to determine whether the Fed will go through one more rate hike,October's US CPI will be at an important crossroadsIt has also been pointed out that there is a possibility.
Total CPIAfter falling to a low level of 3% in June,The past 3 months have been on an upward trendIt's in (it was flat at 3.7% in September). However,Core CPIIsIt's decliningIt slowed from 4.3% in August to 4.1% in September. From the middle to the second half of OctoberInternational crude oil prices have generally declinedTherefore, in the marketOctober's overall CPI slowed to 3.3% from the previous yearI will, butCore CPI remained flat at 4.1%It is anticipated that it will be. If inflation cools down as expected,Possibility that it will lead to further stock appreciationThere is.
Also, since employment statistics for October fell short of expectations and US retail sales have also slowed, the observation that monetary tightening by the Fed will be prolonged has receded. October's CPIIf it slows further as expected, there is a possibility that the US Fed in December will remain unchanged again。
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Contrary to expectations, the imputed rent (OER) inflation rate in September (accounting for 32% of core CPI) accelerated to 0.56% from the previous month, and recorded a high level since February. However, there are observations where the sharp rise in the OER inflation rate was overestimated,It is unlikely that it will continue in October。 At Nomura Securities, the OER inflation rate for October was compared to the previous month0.42%Expected.
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Other than rent, according to STR's hotel price data, CPI's“Accommodation expenses”continued with a 3.7% increase in September, and October tooUp 1.7% month over monthIt rose at a steady pace. Also,Video streaming service price increases in October by many providersaccounts for 0.9% of overall CPI and 1.1% of core CPI“Cable/Satellite TV/Radio”It has brought about an upward risk.
Since major automobile manufacturers had secured sufficient inventory prior to the UAW (American Auto Workers Union) strike, drastic losses were avoided, and price pressure was also relaxed. Estimating used car retail sales based on changes in sales volume tracked by vAuto, used car retail sales in October are expected to decrease 2% from the previous month and 4% from the previous year. The average retail price of used cars fell 0.7% in the past four weeks.
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There is a possibility that the decline in crude oil prices will greatly depress overall CPI growth. US gasoline prices in October were compared to the previous monthAverage decline of 5.5%Then, the price of Brent crude oil is compared to the previous month4.2% declineBecause I didIt is expected that the decline in energy prices will become significantIt will be done. Meanwhile, natural gas prices rose sharply by 16.8%, but considering that the fluctuation rate of natural gas is high and the ratio to CPI is relatively small, overall energy prices in October were compared to the previous monthIt is expected to fall 4.4%It is.
The food price index for October announced by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) fell 10.9% from the previous year, and the downward trend continues. The October decline reflects lower sugar, grain, vegetable oil, and meat price indices, while the dairy price index has recovered.
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Over the next few months,Core CPI is likely to decline moderately. The tightening of loan conditions for car loans and the end of the UAW strike suggest a resumption of automobile price declines. Rent disinflation will also continue. Still,supercoreIt depends on the momentum of private consumption and wage increases,Took tenacious for a whileThere is a possibility.
According to Capital Group economist Jared Franz, the 2% inflation target is due to rent lags (delays)There is a possibility that it will be achieved early。 It was pointed out that improvements in productivity and a slowdown in unit labor costs are putting downward pressure on inflation. Coupled with stable commodity prices,Inflation could reach 2% by the end of 2024I added.
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The easing of inflationary pressure may reduce the possibility of additional interest rate increases by the Fed,The Fed is expected to maintain a hawkish bias until the inflation rate reaches its targetIt will be done.
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— MooMoo News US Stocks Calvin, Sherry
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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イタグレパパ : If the declaration to stop interest rate hikes, which is finally one milestone, receives the CPI results on the 14th and there are quite a few pigeon comments from Chairman Powell at the FOMC in December, I think it will lead to the Santa Claus rally
There are difficult issues that surpass big mountains, such as PPI and the debt ceiling issue on the 17th, but they all passed safely, and I'm looking forward to opening a window for NVDA's shiny financial results in the 3Q big day.
181338057犬心久美子 : It makes me nervous
181338057犬心久美子 :
Nice, thank you.