[Preview] Will US employment statistics for February confirm the “not far off” June Fed rate cut observations scheduled to be announced tonight

The number of people employed in the non-farm sector in February in the USFriday (8th) at 10:30 p.m. Japan timeIt is scheduled to be announced on At the market, in February of riceThe number of people employed in the non-farm sector is expected to increase by 198,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.7%It's been done.

According to ADP employment statistics released this Wednesday, the number of US private sector employees increased by 140,000 in February. Growth also fell short of expectations from an increase of 111,000 people in January.

Also, in the January Employment Dynamics Survey (JOLTS) announced by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of job offers (seasonally adjusted, preliminary figures) in the non-farm sector decreased by 26,000 from the previous month to 8863,000, falling below the 9 million market forecast.

Chairman Powell of the US Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve) testified in the lower house of parliament this week, and after showing the idea that policy interest rates have already peaked, “it will be appropriate to start cutting interest rates at some point within the year.”

According to the US employment statistics for the first fiscal year (January) announced by the US Department of Labor on the 2nd of the previous month, the number of workers in the non-farm sector increased by 353,000 compared to the previous month. Growth exceeded market expectations of around 180,000 people.

The unemployment rate fell below 4% for the second year in a row. The labor market remained strong.

The number of US ADP private sector employees in February increased widely even though it was lower than expected
Automatic data processing for enterprise payroll services (ADP) announced it on Wednesday this weekFebruary US Employment ReportAccording toNumber of people employed in the non-farm sectorIs140,000 increase、The market forecast is an increase of 149,000 people.What is the first semesterRevised upward from 107,000 to 111,000.Growth has expanded since the previous month, and the previous month's portion has also been revised upward, and there are no signs that the labor market is slowing down.

Job creation was wide-ranging, and entertainment/hospitality, construction, and trade/transportation led the way. Job creation has spread regardless of region or company size.

The number of US job offers has remained almost flat since the previous month, at 8.86 million in January
According to the January Employment Dynamics Survey (JOLTS) announced by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of job offers (seasonally adjusted, preliminary figures) in the non-farm sector decreased by 26,000 from the previous month to 8863,000, falling below the 9 million market forecast.

According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, it is calculated that there were approximately 1.45 job offers for 1 unemployed person in January. The number of job offers for 1 unemployed person increased from the previous month.

Growth in US wages is slowing, and there is a big possibility that they will fall below the disinflationary trend
There is a possibility that the year-on-year growth rate of non-farm sector employment wages will still exceed 4%, but there is a high possibility that the monthly wage growth rate fell to 0.2% from 0.6% the previous month due to the return of the weather in January. According to the Atlanta Federal Bank's wage tracker, the moving average wage increase rate over the past three months has dropped to 5.0%.

Chairman Powell stated in October last year that a 3.5% wage increase would be appropriate to meet the 2% inflation target.

Observation of interest rate cuts
If the current data is as predicted by economists, there is a high possibility that concerns about the re-acceleration of the labor market will recede. This is encouraging for the Fed, and they will gain confidence that economic growth is slowing down to a pace consistent with a return to inflation targets. Nevertheless, as long as growth remains solid, there is a high possibility that the timing of the first rate cuts will depend on actual inflation data.

After the 2008 Lehman shock, the US unemployment rate remained at a relatively high level for a long time. It wasn't until 2014 that the US unemployment rate fell below 6%. The current situation is quite the opposite of what it was then. Due to the recovery in US domestic investment, radical fiscal policies, and the continued boom in the real estate market, it is hard to see signs that the US unemployment rate will rise drastically.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, FF interest rate futures traders will temporarily wait until June74.49% probability that interest rate cuts will be implemented, by September98.17% probability that interest rate cuts will be implementedI was looking at it.