Keep an eye on this week's financial results and economic calendar (12/18 to 12/22) Bank of Japan meeting! Will it be a year-end rally with global risk-on?

This week's points
Japanese stocks are expected to continue to grow this week. At the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting to be held on 18-19The focus is on whether there are policy revisions and whether there are hints for early normalization。 Early normalization observations were rapidly strengthened in the first half of December in response to Governor Ueda's “challenging” remarks, but at this meetingPredictions for maintaining the status quo have become dominant。 There is a big possibility that the press conference will be an opportunity to confirm the true meaning of such statements. Also, due to the narrowing interest rate difference between Japan and the US, it has been built up using the widening interest rate difference so far as materialMovements to reduce holding heightSince it's easy to get to, on the 19thContents of Governor Ueda's press conferenceThere is a growing interest in it.

The first half of the week was full of turbulence due to speculations about the Bank of Japan meeting, but once the event passedExhaustionThere is awareness, and there is a movement to determine US economic indicatorsCorrected the lag in the appreciation of US stocksIt is expected that it will move. It is expected that global risk appetite, which was strengthened in the wake of early US interest rate cuts, will continue.If people who don't want to miss out on this trend come in, it's likely to become a year-end rally。 Due to the dovish shift in US stocks in the US FOMC in December,Expectations for the Santa Claus rallyIt's been done.

Last week's market price points
1. The Nikkei Average rebounded for the first time in 3 weeks and temporarily recovered to the 33,000 yen level
2. The US CPI for November, and the slowdown trend is far from reaching the Fed's target
3. The Fed suggests three rate cuts next year, and interest rate cut observations are intensifying
4. The Dow Average and US SOX Index update their highs every day
5. Long-term interest rates in the US fell sharply, and the appreciation of the yen progressed until 1 dollar = 140 yen
6. The president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank fights against market mood

The Nikkei Average rebounded for the first time in 3 weeks to 32,970.55 yen, 662.69 yen (2.05%) higher than the previous weekend in the Tokyo stock market last week. Strong speculations surrounding the heightened interest rate cut observations after the FOMC and the cancellation of the negative interest rate policy by the Bank of JapanTrigger a trend of depreciation of the dollar and appreciation of the yenThen, it has become a burden on Japanese stocks.

The US Federal Reserve's policy interest rateLeave it unchanged for 3 meetings in a rowI made up my mind. From policy interest rate predictionsInterest rate cuts 3 times in 24 yearsIn addition to suggesting the possibility, it was revealed that Fed Chairman Powell discussed the timing of interest rate cuts. Market participants do thisAn important signal for the Fed's monetary policy shiftAccept that, what is the long-term interest rate in the USA level below 4%It dropped sharply to, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the US Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Index (SOX) every day, using this as a tailwindNew all-time highI did. However, NY Fed President Williams said on the 15th, “Currently, there are no discussions on interest rate cuts at all. Since it was stated that “it is too early to think about interest rate cuts in March,” etc., profit-taking sales have come out. Who is the presidentFight back the market mood after the FOMCIt looks like they did it.

In terms of economic indicators, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI)almost as expectedIt becomes the content ofInflation continues to slowIt was accepted. Although the core was generally as expected, the month-on-month growth rose from the previous time, and the supercore, which Fed Chairman Powell is also concerned about, rose 0.4% from the previous month in calculated values, from 0.2% last time.Although overall inflation is settling down, it looks like the strength of core inflation has been shown。 Meanwhile, US retail salesExpansion contrary to market expectationsI did. It recovered in November from the previous month's decline, suggesting that American consumers continue to be solid.