This week's financial results and economic calendar (4/22 to 4/26) Semiconductor/high-tech stock financial results have been announced one after another! Determine the Bank of Japan meeting and the situation in the Middle East

This week's points
Japanese stocks are expected to continue to fall this week. The impact on domestic and international market prices is significantFinancial results announcements for semiconductor and high-tech companiesone after another. Expectations for good performance and stock appreciation due to shareholder return measures against the backdrop of the historic depreciation of the yen were strong, but the market mood suddenly fell due to stumbling blocks in semiconductor stocks, retreating from US interest rate reduction observations, and the tense situation in the Middle EastInclined towards risk aversion. Since Japanese stocks have shown a historic rise until now, there is a possibility that the reaction will grow even larger. In particular, if semiconductor-related stocks decline, there is a possibility that sales will spread throughout the market price. In particular, the downward revision of Taiwan TSMC's market outlook is between manufacturers that design and manufacture cutting-edge chips for AI processing and manufacturers that handle chips for consumer products within the industryLight and dark are separatedIt highlights things. Furthermore, there are many semiconductor-related stocks that have risen significantly since the beginning of the year,The rewind of positions is in full swingThere is also a possibility. However, there is also a possibility that the overall market price will remain solid by speeding up the search cycle for stocks with good performance expectations other than semiconductors. I also want to pay attention to the situation in the Middle East. There is also a view that “since the Nikkei Average was temporarily sold until 1300 yen depreciation last Friday, the immediate risk factors may have been factored in quite a bit.” However, if the crisis becomes even more serious, it is possible to search for a lower price, so keep an eye on the situation in the Middle East.

Regarding US stock financial results, profit forecasts have been revised downward before entering the financial season, so the performance of US companiesThe hurdles for exceeding expectations are low. However, in response to the record rise in US stocks this year, there are many optimistic viewsAlready incorporatedTherefore, JPMorgan strategists predicted that bright corporate performance would not lead to higher stock prices. It is said that profits of S&P 500 companies are expected to decline except for major technology companies.

On 25-26Bank of Japan Monetary Policy MeetingYaBank of Japan Governor Ueda's press conferenceis planned. Policy interest rates are expected to remain unchanged,The timing of additional interest rate hikesThe focus is on whether hints about are shown. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's remarks at the press conference about the accelerating appreciation of the dollar and depreciation of the yen and additional interest rate hikes are attracting attention. I would like to expect the Bank of Japan to play a role in calming the unstable market, but there are currently concerns about the adverse effects that the depreciation of the yen will have on the Japanese economy, and there is a possibility that a message will fight against further depreciation of the yen will come out. On the 18th, the governor expressed the idea that if prices rise due to the depreciation of the yen, policy changes are possible,Impact of the depreciation of the yen on pricesWill be shown at the monetary policy meetingOutlook ReportIt is expected to be included in

Is this week's dollar-yen balance centered around the 154 yen range? In addition to being wary of intervention, when risk aversion intensifies, the initial reaction is likely to be yen buying due to the collapse of accumulated yen selling positions. If the situation in the Middle East becomes even more serious, demand for yen, which is regarded as a safe currency, will increase. However, the heightened risk of rising crude oil due to the tense situation in the Middle East is one weakness that could accelerate the decline in the Japanese currency, which relies on imports for most of its energy supply. According to estimates by Yujiro Goto, chief exchange strategist at Nomura Securities, a 10% increase in crude oil prices will cause the yen to depreciate by 3 to 4 yen per year. Meanwhile, there is a possibility that the price forecast for fiscal year 24 will be revised upward at the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, and it is likely that yen will be bought if additional interest rate hike observations increase.

Last week's market price points
1. The Nikkei Average falls by over 2000 yen, breaking the level of temporarily adjusted market prices
2. Lasertech falls by more than 20%, NVIDIA crashes 10% in one day, semiconductors collapse, and global semiconductor stocks shift from high prices to a downward trend
3. Taiwan TSMC's stock price falls even with good performance, bright and dark in the semiconductor industry
4. Retail sales in the US March unexpectedly grew and expanded, and the dollar and yen broke through the 154 yen level
5. The yield on 10-year US bonds is as high as 5%, and there is a fear that a large amount of loss-cutting sales will occur. What is the previous retrograde high stock in the stock market?
6. Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry AI supercomputer subsidies and Japan-focused strategies of overseas companies flooded into Sakura Net, and purchases spread to one corner of AI-related stocks
7. The total market value of Tesla, which is full of risks, is once again divided by 500 billion dollars, and target stock prices have been cut one after another
8. Netflix temporarily falls 7.4% after hours　A sense of disappointment with the prospects for increased sales and profit due to a drastic increase in the number of members

The Nikkei Average fell sharply in the Tokyo stock market last week to 37,068.35 yen, 2455.2 yen (6.21%) lower than the previous weekend. On the 19th, multiple media reported that Israel had launched a missile at Iran, so sales of risk aversion swelled all at once. At one point, the Nikkei Average's rate of decline from the all-time high set on March 22 exceeded 10%, falling below the adjusted market entry level. Meanwhile, yen, which is regarded as a safe currency, rose, and at one point1 dollar = 153 yenI added the second half. However, attacks on nuclear facilities have been avoided, and the risk aversion mood receded because it was reported that there was no immediate counterattack plan on the Iranian side, and the dollar yen rebounded to around 154.46 yen.

Since US retail sales announced on the 15th unexpectedly grew and expanded, observations of a reduction in US interest rates by the end of the year receded further. After the data was announced, yen was against the dollar154 yen for the first time in about 34 yearsIt fell to What is the yield on US bonds for all termsReached the highest level this year. The 10-year bond yield rose to 4.66% at one point, a high level since mid-November last year. What broke through 4.5%“important”So, there is also a view that movement towards 4.75% of the new upper range limit is in view. Furthermore,4.75%If it exceeds this important level, investors expect prices to riseForced to dissolve positionsIt's like boosting yields to 2007 high levelsThere is a possibility that a wave of sales will rush inThere is Mr. Koutny from Vanguard. The last time stocks depreciated due to a sharp rise in long-term US interest rates was from mid-July 23 to the end of October. At that timeRetrograde high stocksWhen I checked, it reflected concerns about inflation against the background of high resources,Domestic demand-related stocks such as resource-related stocks, defensive stocks, and healthcarestood out.