This week's financial results and economic calendar (4/15 to 4/19) A prelude to US semiconductor stock settlement! Are you going to get rid of the negative vibes?

This week's points
Will Japanese stocks rise heavily this week? While concerns about prolonged US inflation hold back higher prices, the solidity of the US economy supports it.Points are for domestic and international settlementThen, in particular, financial results announcements will begin in earnest in the United States ahead of Japan. This weekFinancial results announcements for semiconductor-related companiesThere is also a possibility that materials will boost Japanese stocks will come out. Also, in addition to financial results announcements starting in the United States, there are announcements of several high-profile indicators, so it is likely that reactions to news from overseas will increase. Meanwhile, from around last weekend to the situation in the Middle EastA sense of caution surfacedIt has been going on, and due to the tense geopolitical situation, it was moving mainly by business confidence and speculation about monetary policy.

Having passed last week's inflation index, market interest is likely to shift towards US corporate settlement. S&P 500 companies' profits are expected to increase for 2 consecutive quarters, particularlyThe high profit margins of major IT and high-tech companies are an important driving forceIt looks like it's going to happen. Although expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts have receded due to the “CPI shock,” it is expected that financial results will dispel the negative atmosphere in the market, and there is a view that “what will drive the future market is not the Fed's interest rate cuts, but performance.” According to LSEG data, analysts say the January-March fiscal year for the S&P 500 companies5% increase in profit compared to the previous yearand predictions,Communications services and technology sectors showed particularly strong growthProfit is expected to increase by 26.7% and 20.9%, respectively. Meanwhile,Energy, materials, healthcareThe 3 divisions are expected to see the most drastic decline in profit.

On the 15th in the USRetail sales for Marchwill be announced. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) will update the World Economic Outlook (WEO) on the 16th. If WEO is revised upward, it will be a tailwind for risk asset stocks. Domestically, the March National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled to be announced on the 19th. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo expressed the view on the 10th that if import prices rise drastically due to the depreciation of the yen and the risk that key prices will rise above 2% increases, it is necessary to consider changes in monetary policy as well.

The dollar and yen are likely to rise this week, with position adjustments in between. What is the number one themeWhether there is live ammunition interventionthat's it. If overseas speculators set up yen sales to test intervention, it will be relatively early155 yen lineA development where people go to test it out is also expected. If retail sales etc. for the US March on the 15th become strong, the appreciation of the dollar and the depreciation of the yen will progress further. Other US economic indicators are scarce, and it seems that the dollar/yen will solidify due to position adjustments. Director Ogawa Kazuhiro of the Deutsche Securities Foreign Exchange Sales Department said, “While short yen positions are piling up, it is necessary to keep in mind that yen is likely to be bought when risk is off.” Also, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting is ahead of the next week, and it seems likely that the market price will move due to related reports.

Meanwhile, as Iran embarked on a direct attack against Israel, the confrontation between the two countries further sharpened. As a result,Crude oil prices have risenThen,The downward pressure on the stock market is also intensifyingInvestor sentiment turned bearish. Also, concerns about the passage of the Strait of Hormuz have increased, and shipping market conditions have also been affectedShipping stocksThere is a growing view that it will rise. Saxo's Ole Hansen pointed out that the rise in crude oil prices was due more to concern than actual turmoil, and that risk premiums were factored into the gold market. The risk premium has already been factored into the crude oil market, and he added that whether or not the risk premium will expand will depend on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz close to Iran.

Last week's market price points
1. The Nikkei Average rebounded for the first time in 3 weeks, and purchases were favored by the depreciation of the yen, mainly in export-related stocks
2. US core CPI surged for 3 consecutive months! Has the US interest rate reduction plan gone off track?
3. Major US banks are reviewing interest rate cut forecasts one after another! Is it only once in December for the rest of the year
4. The depreciation of yen did not stop, overseas players in the 153 yen range for the first time in 34 years maintained yen sales positions, and did they intervene after G20?
5. NVIDIA entered a temporary adjustment phase and then suddenly rebounded, buying at a reasonable price
6. Surpass NVIDIA! US Electric Power stocks are experiencing a strong rise
7. The popularity of “data center related” stocks has been rekindled due to rapid growth in the generative AI market

The Nikkei Average rose for the first time in 3 weeks to 39,53.55 yen in the Tokyo stock market last week, 531.47 yen (1.36%) higher than the previous weekend. The US consumer price index (CPI) for March exceeded market expectations. The main causes are energy prices due to high crude oil prices, and rising service prices such as rent, car insurance, and medical expenses. The US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut observations are as far away as running water. Expectations for interest rate cuts in June have almost disappeared, and the view that interest rates will be cut twice by the end of the year has strengthened. US bonds have depreciated drastically, and the voices of the bond-bearers are getting even stronger. Voices were also heard saying, “We cannot ignore the possibility that the FOMC will not implement any mitigation by the end of the year.” Meanwhile, growth in the rice producer price index (PPI) announced on the 11th slowed from February, and fell short of expectations. The core index also remained the smallest increase since the beginning of the year. The sense of caution against a rekindling of inflation has faded slightly, but this does not mean that the US Federal Reserve's postponed interest rate cut observations, which emerged after the “CPI shock,” have not been drastically revised.

After the US CPI was announced,The movement to review Wall Street interest rate cut forecasts in general has spread. Bankame and Deutsche Bank togetherDelay in starting interest rate cutswithExpect a decrease in the number of timesIt showed the assumption that “the end of the year is only once in December.” Both banks conventionally anticipate that the reduction in US interest rates will begin in June. Goldman Sachs economists have changed their forecast for US interest rate cuts this year from 3 to 2 times.

In response to an increase in the US CPI, the yen exchange rate1 dollar fell to 153 yen for the first time in 34 yearsI did it. It has broken through the 152 yen line of defense, and the sense of caution against intervention has further increased. Treasurer Masato Kanda fought back the market in response to the unstoppable depreciation of the yen and stated that “we will respond appropriately to movements that have gone too far without eliminating any means.” Adding the dollar to the 153 yen level is a dollar purchase that receives strong US economic statistics such as CPI, etc., and since it is not led by the yen, it is difficult to intervene. Also, while Prime Minister Kishida is in the US, there is a strong view that there will be no intervention because he does not want to cause American antipathy. Overseas funds have also maintained the yen selling positions they have built up over the past 2 months. Also, since Finance Minister Suzuki stated, “I think there is a possibility that concerns about the dollar's unique rise will be discussed at G20 to be held next week,”I wonder if they will intervene after G20 on 17-18There is also a view that.